Author Topic: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead  (Read 895 times)

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Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« on: April 15, 2018, 04:07:26 PM »

Offline greg683x

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I understand you dont try and foul Middleton on that last second shot, but the possesion before we could have fouled them in the backcourt and make them take free throws with the three point deficit.

the same thing happened when we played Washington several weeks ago and we let Jodie Meeks make a game tieing 3.

It seems like Brad doesnt like this strategy at all, but I dont see why considering the circumstances sometimes
Greg

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2018, 04:11:49 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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I understand you dont try and foul Middleton on that last second shot, but the possesion before we could have fouled them in the backcourt and make them take free throws with the three point deficit.

the same thing happened when we played Washington several weeks ago and we let Jodie Meeks make a game tieing 3.

It seems like Brad doesnt like this strategy at all, but I dont see why considering the circumstances sometimes

Yeah, esp since we've been burned by the same strategy against Hou and GSW off the top of my head. I remember Doc refused to do this before as well, but after a tying three he said something like "we shouldve fouled them"

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2018, 04:50:36 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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There are good reasons not to do this. The main reason is you risk the ball handler anticipating the foul and taking a shot, perhaps resulting in a three point play. It might be unlikely, but it is possible. If you play good defense, you have a better chance at a good outcome. The Washington play never should have happened, the fault was not with Brad or the scheme, but Morris foolishly came over to contest the lay up leaving Meeks open at the 3 point line. Morris admitted after the game that he goofed. If Morris stays home Washinton scores 2 and the game is likely over. It is telling that most NBA coaches, even the best ones, do not do this.

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2018, 04:51:51 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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There are good reasons not to do this. The main reason is you risk the ball handler anticipating the foul and taking a shot, perhaps resulting in a three point play. It might be unlikely, but it is possible. If you play good defense, you have a better chance at a good outcome. The Washington play never should have happened, the fault was not with Brad or the scheme, but Morris foolishly came over to contest the lay up leaving Meeks open at the 3 point line. Morris admitted after the game that he goofed. If Morris stays home Washinton scores 2 and the game is likely over. It is telling that most NBA coaches, even the best ones, do not do this.

Pop does this, so does Kerr. D Antoni isnt on their level but he did it against us as well.

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2018, 04:55:10 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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They key question is, how much time was left during the possession in question.  Not a rhetorical question, I truly don’t know.  I only consider that strategy with less than 10 seconds to go. Any more time and it’s just the wrong thing to do.

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2018, 04:58:31 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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I'll confess I don't see too many Warriors or Spurs games, but I'm pretty sure I've seen at least a few where they did not, can't remember exactly when however. It might be interesting to see if there is any analysis as to whether this strategy leads to better outcomes.

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2018, 05:13:08 PM »

Offline greg683x

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They key question is, how much time was left during the possession in question.  Not a rhetorical question, I truly don’t know.  I only consider that strategy with less than 10 seconds to go. Any more time and it’s just the wrong thing to do.

Brogdon hit the three with 11 seconds left, the possesion started with 15 seconds left.

The reason why Im picking on this possesion is because when the ball was inbounded Horford nearly had Bledsoe trapped near half court with his back to the basket, it was a perfect spot for a foul.

Id disagree with doing this strategy with only less than 10 seconds left, the less time there is, the bigger chance a player is gonna throw up a prayer to try and get the three point shooting foul.  I would do it on any possesion where the team is gonna intend to take the last shot to either win or tie the game.
Greg

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2018, 05:17:20 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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I see your point, but again there is again the issue of the team not doing a good job on defense. If the defense stays home and guards Brogdon,  he's not open for that shot. I'm not saying giving the foul there is a bad idea, I'm just pointing out that not fouling likely would have worked out if the team had just defended they way they should. There are risks with both strategies and it's easy to decide what to do when you are watching the game, but in the moment it's much harder.

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2018, 05:35:11 PM »

Offline greg683x

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I see your point, but again there is again the issue of the team not doing a good job on defense. If the defense stays home and guards Brogdon,  he's not open for that shot. I'm not saying giving the foul there is a bad idea, I'm just pointing out that not fouling likely would have worked out if the team had just defended they way they should. There are risks with both strategies and it's easy to decide what to do when you are watching the game, but in the moment it's much harder.

youre right the defense was not up to par, thats an issue as well.

I guess im just looking at this more from a strategic standpoint.  Sometimes you play good defense and players just hit shots, like Middleton did with .5 seconds.  If you foul, they dont even get a chance to take the shot to begin with

I dont feel like this is a 'well its an in the moment thing'  Stevens needs to make this decision in the huddle before the ball is even inbounded.

All that being said, I see that their can be differences in mindset.  Play good defense and dont give points away for free.  Theres validity to that too.  Im just irritated bc I feel like we keep getting burned in this particular circumstance
Greg

Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2018, 05:51:08 PM »

Offline bopna

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my issue is why does Stevens not stick very close to shooters in the very last play of regulation.
This why I love MS in the way he denied Harden the ball in our game against Houston where he forced Harden and made him commit 2 clumsy offensive fouls.

In our last defensive play, we all knew it would be a hail mary shot by Middleton, but how easy was it that he got the ball.

Brown should be as close to Middleton as possible without fouling..Its really not rocket science that you play man to man no matter what because a hail mary shot is virtually impossible if there is a man in your chest all the time...Brown was not been as near as he should be on Middleton.


Re: Why wont Stevens foul with a 3pt lead
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2018, 06:09:48 PM »

Offline Erik

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He may trust his defense more than a free throw shooting contest. When you have an elite defense, turning the game into free throws is worse for you in the long run.