Author Topic: NBA TP Pick 'Ems - NYK at home +3.5 vs. DET, MIA -7.5 at home vs. BRK  (Read 751 times)

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Offline smokeablount

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Hey guys,

Just thought I'd start a thread on a few pick ems for today.

Pick the games below for a chance to win TPs from me!

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NYK at home +3.5 vs Detroit -

-NYK is a solid .500 team at home, Detroit is 11-26 on the road.
-Detroit: 2-7 in 9 road games in March, beating PHX + SAC, losing to MIA, DEN; ORL in OT.
-NYK: 2-4 at home in March, 18+ pt W's vs CHI/CHA, L's to MIN by 4, PHI: 8, Mavs: 13, TOR.

-OUT: KP, likely Kanter for NYK | Griffin for DET, who looks worse after trading Harris/AB. 
-Detroit should rely on Drummond do destroy on the glass, but weak offense with the Reggies as options #2 + #3 (Jackson, Bullock) and support from Ish Smith, Kennard + Stanley J.
-New York needs Beasley, Courtney Lee, red-hot Trey Burke, Mudiay, Hardaway Jr to score.
-Detroit / NYK are doing great ATS on the road / at home in their past 5, but in the 8-10 games before those (games #6-15 most recent, after the 5 most recent), they only won 1-2 each.

My head says Drummond should control the boards and Detroit takes it, but New York's stable of guards and wings that can shoot it plus Detroit's recent road woes make NYK tempting.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/detroit-new-york-odds-march-31-2018-894320

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MIA at home -7.5 vs. BRK

-I like MIA this year as a favorite in general, but this matchup is dicey, and not sure how much being at home adds (at home they're 15-18-4 ATS, they're much better thus year ATS away).

-But, Brooklyn is a scrappy team that can get hot, with a stellar road record ATS of 24-11-1.  Both teams fared well against the spread this year- Brooklyn at 42-31-2 and Miami at 38-32-6. 

OUT: Lin for BRK and Waiters for MIA are out for the year, everyone else looks good to go.

I feel like this is a tossup, Miami is a real solid and well coached team, but the # trends point to Brooklyn getting a nice cushion here, though Miami could certainly break those trends.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/brooklyn-miami-odds-march-31-2018-894330

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Thoughts?  Any predictions to earn TPs?
« Last Edit: March 31, 2018, 11:24:00 AM by smokeablount »
2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07