Author Topic: CFAN38 draft tiers  (Read 1705 times)

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Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2018, 02:23:13 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Not that interested in Michael Porter. I get it- he was hurt.

I still think he's a stiff. I don't think he has upper echelon athleticism. Is he a Reggie Miller type shooter? Can he take the soul to the hole like our man Jaylen?

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2018, 07:01:54 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Not that interested in Michael Porter. I get it- he was hurt.

I still think he's a stiff. I don't think he has upper echelon athleticism. Is he a Reggie Miller type shooter? Can he take the soul to the hole like our man Jaylen?

I'm not a big MPJ fan but still have him in my third tier based on his ceiling. He is one of the few players in this class who has the potential to be a #1 scoring option. I also have concerns about Trae Young in the NBA but for the same high ceiling as Porter I also have him in my 3rd tier.

The 5th and 6th picks pre lottery are the Magic and the Bulls and I could see either of these teams taking Porter based on their needs to gamble on high end talent. My next tier of players are likely safer picks and clearly they have NBA roles but Sexton, Carter and the Bridges all seem like conservative picks ahead of MPJ and Young.   

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2018, 09:13:09 AM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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A lot of people have MPJs ceiling as a Durant type shot creator. I see his play style in line with a Klay archetype. His jumpshot will be the weapon that sets the rest of his game up. His defensive ceiling isnt near Klay's, but offensively I see a lot of similarities.

« Last Edit: April 20, 2018, 09:49:57 AM by A Future of Stevens »
Favorite Current NBA Player: Jaylen Brown
-> Fan since his first game against the Cavs.

Tatum fan since he shot his first jumper.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2018, 11:06:40 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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A lot of people have MPJs ceiling as a Durant type shot creator. I see his play style in line with a Klay archetype. His jumpshot will be the weapon that sets the rest of his game up. His defensive ceiling isnt near Klay's, but offensively I see a lot of similarities.

I never like when big wings are compared to Durant because Durants size and length are usually under valued. Durant has admitted in interviews that he is now 6'10 1/2 without shoes making him roughly 7' tall. His wingspan was previously measured at 7' 4 1/2 and likely grew as well. Only the Greak Freak has his level of measurements on the wing.

I like Rashard Lewis as a better comp for Porter Jr. I will be suprised if MPJ is a generational shooting talent like Klay Thompson.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2018, 01:01:51 PM »

Offline gouki88

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A lot of people have MPJs ceiling as a Durant type shot creator. I see his play style in line with a Klay archetype. His jumpshot will be the weapon that sets the rest of his game up. His defensive ceiling isnt near Klay's, but offensively I see a lot of similarities.

I never like when big wings are compared to Durant because Durants size and length are usually under valued. Durant has admitted in interviews that he is now 6'10 1/2 without shoes making him roughly 7' tall. His wingspan was previously measured at 7' 4 1/2 and likely grew as well. Only the Greak Freak has his level of measurements on the wing.

I like Rashard Lewis as a better comp for Porter Jr. I will be suprised if MPJ is a generational shooting talent like Klay Thompson.
I said that pre-injury and got roasted lol. Lewis was a multiple time All-Star and had a really good 5 year stretch where he roughly averaged 20/6 as a #2 option.

Pretty good comp if you ask me

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2018, 11:53:10 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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update as of 5/4

Tier 1
Doncic          Wing

Tier 2
Jackson       Big
Ayton          Big


Tier 3
Bamba          Big
Bagely          Big
Porter Jr       Swing
Young          Guard

Tier 4
Sexton         Guard
Carter           Big
Miles Bridges   Swing
Mikal Bridges   Wing
Z Smith          Wing (moved up a tier)

Tier 5
J Porter           Big
R Williams       Big
Gilgeous-Alevander   Guard
K Knox           Swing
M Robinson    Big
L Walker        Wing
J Okogie         Wing (added)


Tier 6
O Spellman     Big (added
S Ponds         Guard (dropped a tier)
T Brown         Wing
Bates-Diop     Swing
Musa          Wing
Melton          Guard
Evans        Wing (moved up tier)

Tier 7
McCoy          Big (dropped tier)
Milton         Wing
Alkins         Wing
Bonga        Wing
A Simons   Wing
Duval         Guard
Divincenzo Wing (added)
Allen          Wing
K Thomas  Wing (added)


Tier 8
Trent Jr        Wing
Frazier         Wing
Brunson       Guard
Shamet      Guard
Mykhailuik   Wing (added)
B Bowen     Wing (added)
Hutchison   Wing (added)
Holiday       Guard (added)
D Graham   Guard (added)
Wiley          Big   (added

Tier 9
Carter        Guard (added)
Wagner     Big (added)
G Clark       Swing (added)
J Jackson   Swing (added)


I have added players and shifted some guys around. This gets my list up to 48 players.

I have highlighted in orange a few players who I think have a great chance to out player their current tier much like D Mitchell has this year. Im not saying these players will be stars but they might go mid second and be surprise contributors.

1. Zhaire Smith, he is an absolute freak athlete. At this point he isn't much of a creator on offense but can hit open shots, is super active on the boards, and plays elite D. He could be the player who everyone looks back on as the steal of this draft and potential best player long term.

2. J Porter, not the hyped prospect his brother was but he has a lot to like when projecting him to the NBA. If he gets his body in line he could be a unique prospect who can both facilitate from the perimeter, shoot the 3, defend the 5, and give some rim protection.

3. Josh Okogie, he is a player that I cant believe more draft pundits are not higher on. He is only 6'4 but has a 7' wing span and was last weight in at 213lbs. He put up good number on a bad GT team scoring 18 ppg and 6rb. He projects as a good 3pt shooter and is really good at drawing contract and getting to the foul line. He also averaged 1blk per game and 1.8stl per game. Into today's position less game he will be a very switchable defender who I think will be a surprisingly effecting scoring option given good spacing.

4. Bates-Diop, he has the perfect size, length and skill set to player the modern swing role. He will need to gain strength to compete against the elite of the position but I feel he is currently being under sold on most mocks. 

5. Grayson Allen, he is the classic over exposed college player. We have seen him so much that every one of his weaknesses are pointed out and put on display. My bottom line with Grayson is that I can see him contributing minutes on a playoff winning team. He shoots the ball well, is a capable secondary ball handler, is super competitive (to the point of immaturity), and has good positional strength.

6. Sviatoslav Mykhailuik, he is another player who we have seen a lot of over the past 4 years. Despite being a senior he is only 20 yrs old thanks to starting college at 17. His clear path to an NBA job will come as a lights out 3pt shooter. I was very impressed watching Myhaluik defend Marvin Bagely this year. Despite only having a 6'5 wing span at 6'8 and weighing in around 205-210lbs he seems to be a very willing and active on defense. As a bench shooter in the Kyle Korver mold all teams will really ask of him is to shoot lights out and engage on defense. I think he will be able to do both on the NBA level and will find him self a solid role on a wining team.

Re: CFAN38 draft tiers
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2018, 10:15:26 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Looking at the Cs draft history since 2014 on picks higher then 40 DA seems to hold to the following perimeters

1. +4 wingspan to height

2. projects as high level individual defender

3. high level athletic profile for position

4. little regard for  3pt shooting


Tatum, Brown, Rozier, Smart, Yabu, Mickey, Zizic and Semi (slightly less then +4 but close) all fall under these parameters. Smart, Yabu and Zizics athletic profile is high end based on positional strength.

The only outliers since 14 are Hunter and Young. Both had the + length but not the other traits. Both represents DAs failed attempts to draft a league ready shooter.

Looking at this draft  I have a few prospects who hit on all of parameters who I think could be good fits on the Cs.

1. Zhaire Smith, smaller wing who is an elite NBA athlete. Reports are that he has around a 6'11 wingspan. Skill set is more of a role player at this point but ceiling is super high. (likely late lottery pick)

Troy Brown, 6'7 210lb 6'11 wingspan secondary ball handling wing. He was the ESPN 15th ranked recruit in his class. Had a productive Fresh year but lack of outside shot might make him slip (likely goes 14-20)

3. Josh Okogie, 6'4 wide body 215lb wing with an immense 7' wingspan. Has potential as a shooter and is great at getting to the rim and drawing fouls. On D he is great over picks and creates problems for opponents with length. My draft sleeper (late 1st)

4. De'Anthony Melton, built similar to Rozier he is a combo guard who is limited on offense but potentially and elite level perimeter defender in the Beverely mold (late 1st)

5. Rawle Alkins, another 6'4 wide body 225lbs with 6'9 wingspan. Physical on ball defender who needs to play better team defense. (late 1st early 2nd)

 

Re: CFAN38 draft tiers
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2018, 10:46:33 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Looking at the Cs draft history since 2014 on picks higher then 40 DA seems to hold to the following perimeters

1. +4 wingspan to height

2. projects as high level individual defender

3. high level athletic profile for position

4. little regard for  3pt shooting


Tatum, Brown, Rozier, Smart, Yabu, Mickey, Zizic and Semi (slightly less then +4 but close) all fall under these parameters. Smart, Yabu and Zizics athletic profile is high end based on positional strength.

The only outliers since 14 are Hunter and Young. Both had the + length but not the other traits. Both represents DAs failed attempts to draft a league ready shooter.

Looking at this draft  I have a few prospects who hit on all of parameters who I think could be good fits on the Cs.

1. Zhaire Smith, smaller wing who is an elite NBA athlete. Reports are that he has around a 6'11 wingspan. Skill set is more of a role player at this point but ceiling is super high. (likely late lottery pick)

Troy Brown, 6'7 210lb 6'11 wingspan secondary ball handling wing. He was the ESPN 15th ranked recruit in his class. Had a productive Fresh year but lack of outside shot might make him slip (likely goes 14-20)

3. Josh Okogie, 6'4 wide body 215lb wing with an immense 7' wingspan. Has potential as a shooter and is great at getting to the rim and drawing fouls. On D he is great over picks and creates problems for opponents with length. My draft sleeper (late 1st)

4. De'Anthony Melton, built similar to Rozier he is a combo guard who is limited on offense but potentially and elite level perimeter defender in the Beverely mold (late 1st)

5. Rawle Alkins, another 6'4 wide body 225lbs with 6'9 wingspan. Physical on ball defender who needs to play better team defense. (late 1st early 2nd)

 
Except that Tatum was in no way regarded as fitting #2 or #3 in that profile. Defense was a major concern for him going into the draft, and even now he's more regarded as a guy who fits well into a switching system then a guy who is a high level individual defender. And athleticism was another concern, going into the draft he was not regarded as a high level athlete, and while he's better than most thought hes no a great athlete for a SF. With Tatum it was all about the scoring skill.

This is a direct quote pulled from an SI article about the Tatum pick.

"Weaknesses: Although Tatumís skill set is impressive, heís not an athlete of the highest tier, which makes it tougher to draw a direct through-line to NBA success. Tatum can fall in love with his mid-range shot at times and occasionally will take a tough look when he doesnít need to. Heís developing as a passer but isnít a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and if he doesnít work on defense, itís hard to see how heíll impact the game when he isnít shooting the ball. Tatum will have to expand his game or risk being branded a one-dimensional scoring specialist."

Re: CFAN38 draft tiers
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2018, 10:53:05 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Double post

Re: CFAN38 draft tiers
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2018, 11:09:13 AM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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It doesn't matter how pundits and draft reports regarded Tatum's athleticism or defensive ability, Ainge clearly thought very highly of his skill set.   

He's clearly a much better athlete than he was expected to be, and his defense has been exceptional, considering he's a rookie. Ainge saw that in him or else he wouldn't have targeted him as he did. The countless highlight reel plays Tatum has given us this year are a testament to how underrated he was as an athlete.


Re: CFAN38 draft tiers
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2018, 11:41:51 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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It doesn't matter how pundits and draft reports regarded Tatum's athleticism or defensive ability, Ainge clearly thought very highly of his skill set.   

He's clearly a much better athlete than he was expected to be, and his defense has been exceptional, considering he's a rookie. Ainge saw that in him or else he wouldn't have targeted him as he did. The countless highlight reel plays Tatum has given us this year are a testament to how underrated he was as an athlete.

I would also add that there are different types of high level athletes. Yabu and Semi are both high level athlete given the way they can move with such a large frames. Tatum isn't as explosive a wing as Jaylen but he has extremely quick feet for being 6'8" +. 

Re: CFAN38 draft tiers
« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2018, 04:44:58 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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And this is why Danny Ainge doesn't draft based on SI scouting reports.  Whatever weaknesses Tatum had, he fixed them really well and/or the weaknesses were overblown by the scouts who just love to harp on the negatives.  43% 3 point shooting as a ROOKIE are you kidding me?

NBA Rookie 3 point accuracy:
Reggie Miller 35.5%
Ray Allen 39.3%
Larry Bird 40.6%
Klay Thompson 41.4%
Jayson Tatum 43.4%
Stephen Curry 43.7%


Tatum keeps some really, really ELITE company!

This is a direct quote pulled from an SI article about the Tatum pick.

"Weaknesses: Although Tatumís skill set is impressive, heís not an athlete of the highest tier, which makes it tougher to draw a direct through-line to NBA success. Tatum can fall in love with his mid-range shot at times and occasionally will take a tough look when he doesnít need to. Heís developing as a passer but isnít a playmaker with the ball in his hands, and if he doesnít work on defense, itís hard to see how heíll impact the game when he isnít shooting the ball. Tatum will have to expand his game or risk being branded a one-dimensional scoring specialist."