Author Topic: CFAN38 draft tiers  (Read 1579 times)

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CFAN38 draft tiers
« on: March 12, 2018, 12:37:19 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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Before the Tourney starts this is my 2018 draft tiers. With the leagues views on positions changing I decided to place players in 4 groups. 1. Bigs (players who will primarily defend big men) 2. Big Wings (traditional stretch 4s, 4/3 hybrids or large SFs) 3. Wings (primary perimeter players not likely to play point or defend in the paint)  4. Guards (players likely limited to defending traditional PG sized players or who are clearly point guards)

Tier 1
Ayton          Big
Doncic          Wing

Tier 2
Jackson           Big
Bamba          Big
Bagely          Big
Porter Jr          Big wing

Tier 3
Sexton          Guard
Young          Guard
Carter           Big
Miles Bridges   Big Wing
Mikal Bridges   Wing

Tier 4
J Porter           Big
R Williams   Big
Gilgeous-Alevander   Guard
K Knox           Big wing
D Hunter           Big wing
M Robinson   Big
L Walker          Wing
S Ponds         Guard

Tier 5
T Brown         Wing
Bates-Diop     Big wing
Gafford         Big
McCoy          Big
Yurtseven          Big
Musa          Wing
Melton          Guard
Z Smith          Wing

Tier 6
Milton         Wing
Alkins         Wing
Bonga         Wing
A Simons         Wing
Duval        Guard
Brunson        Guard
Shamet        Guard
Allen              Wing

Based off of my tiers the Cs will have a shot at a player in tier 5 and should have their pick on tier 6. If that holds true Melton and Alkins both seem like DA type picks.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2018, 12:27:47 PM by CFAN38 »

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2018, 11:58:42 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Updating my Tiers based off of alot of reading and listening to podcast and switching to the Guard, Wing (traditional 2/3), Swing (traditional 3/4) and big positional designations.

Tier 1
Doncic          Wing

Tier 2
Jackson       Big
Ayton          Big


Tier 3
Bamba          Big
Bagely          Big
Porter Jr       Swing
Young          Guard

Tier 4
Sexton         Guard
Carter           Big
Miles Bridges   Swing
Mikal Bridges   Wing

Tier 5
J Porter           Big
R Williams       Big
Gilgeous-Alevander   Guard
K Knox           Swing
D Hunter        Swing
Z Smith          Wing
M Robinson    Big
L Walker        Wing
S Ponds         Guard

Tier 6
T Brown         Wing
Bates-Diop     Swing
McCoy          Big
Musa          Wing
Melton          Guard

Tier 7
Milton         Wing
Alkins         Wing
Bonga        Wing
A Simons   Wing
Evans        Wing
Duval         Guard
Allen          Wing


Tier 8
Trent Jr        Wing
Frazier         Wing
Brunson       Guard
Shamet      Guard
Yurtseven    Big

If these Tiers play out as predicted the Cs would be looking like the 3rd pick in tier 7. I have that tier as holding a solid mix of high ceiling young players (Duval, Simons, Bongo), high floor college vets (Miton, Allen) and more mid level prospects in Alkin and Evans.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2018, 12:18:19 PM »

Offline footey

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Jackson not tier 2. I prefer most you have at tier 3 to him. He is too raw.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2018, 12:54:08 PM »

Offline konkmv

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A. Simmons...
J.porter
M. Robinson

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2018, 09:53:09 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Jackson not tier 2. I prefer most you have at tier 3 to him. He is too raw.

Comparing Jackson Jr. To the bigs/swings in my tier 3 Bamba, Bagely and Porter Jr.

1. He is the youngest player in the group at only 18 1/2. Bagely is the next youngest at 19 while Bamba and Porter are almost 20.

2. He is the best over all defender in the group. Statistically he averaged 5 blocks per 36mpg compared to Bamba's 4.3. Outside of the stats he is clearly the best perimeter defending big in this class. His ability to switch to smaller players and provide elite rim protection places him in a very unique and desirable archetype.

3. Ill exclude Porter JR due to his small sample size but compared to Bagely and Bamba he is leading the grup for having the most potential as a floor spacer. Though his shot has a slightly different look to it he shot 39% on 2.7 3PA and .79% on 3.8FTA compared to Bagely who despite playing over 10 more mpg shot the same 39% on only 1.8 3PA and 62% on 6.3 FTA, Bamba was 27% on 1.73PA and 68% on 4FTA. 

Looking over past college players I am having a hard time finding a player who shoots as many 3s as Jackson at nearly 40% while also averaging 2.5 (let alone 5) blocks per 36. The two best comps I can find are Bosh 1.7 3PA @ 47% and 2.5blks per 36 and M Turner 3.0 #PA @ 27% and 4.2blks per 36. In this years class Jontay Porter is actually another player who falls into this grouping as he averaged 2.5blks per 36 and shot 36% on 4.9 3PA. However he is no were near the level of athlete that Jackson is.

He may be raw as any 18 year old would be but he seems to play within his game and doesn't try to over extend himself. He really has the ideal mix of skills for a modern day big man. Given his young age and NBA pedigree I am confident to predict that he floor as a prospect is that of a Serge IBaka like role player.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2018, 09:54:45 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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A. Simmons...
J.porter
M. Robinson

I really like Jontay but would be shocked/thrilled if he makes it to 27. He is a player who I would target in a trade up if moving from 27 to the late teens early 20s can be done for a low enough cost is possible.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2018, 10:30:46 AM »

Offline footey

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Jackson not tier 2. I prefer most you have at tier 3 to him. He is too raw.

Comparing Jackson Jr. To the bigs/swings in my tier 3 Bamba, Bagely and Porter Jr.

1. He is the youngest player in the group at only 18 1/2. Bagely is the next youngest at 19 while Bamba and Porter are almost 20.

2. He is the best over all defender in the group. Statistically he averaged 5 blocks per 36mpg compared to Bamba's 4.3. Outside of the stats he is clearly the best perimeter defending big in this class. His ability to switch to smaller players and provide elite rim protection places him in a very unique and desirable archetype.

3. Ill exclude Porter JR due to his small sample size but compared to Bagely and Bamba he is leading the grup for having the most potential as a floor spacer. Though his shot has a slightly different look to it he shot 39% on 2.7 3PA and .79% on 3.8FTA compared to Bagely who despite playing over 10 more mpg shot the same 39% on only 1.8 3PA and 62% on 6.3 FTA, Bamba was 27% on 1.73PA and 68% on 4FTA. 

Looking over past college players I am having a hard time finding a player who shoots as many 3s as Jackson at nearly 40% while also averaging 2.5 (let alone 5) blocks per 36. The two best comps I can find are Bosh 1.7 3PA @ 47% and 2.5blks per 36 and M Turner 3.0 #PA @ 27% and 4.2blks per 36. In this years class Jontay Porter is actually another player who falls into this grouping as he averaged 2.5blks per 36 and shot 36% on 4.9 3PA. However he is no were near the level of athlete that Jackson is.

He may be raw as any 18 year old would be but he seems to play within his game and doesn't try to over extend himself. He really has the ideal mix of skills for a modern day big man. Given his young age and NBA pedigree I am confident to predict that he floor as a prospect is that of a Serge IBaka like role player.

I think you and a lot of scouts are making a lot of assumptions based on his youth, length and athleticism, and ignore his lack of feel and assertiveness on full display. I’ve been wrong before. We will see.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2018, 09:04:31 PM »

Offline wiley

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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas.  I think Ayton should remain tier 1. 

I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing. 

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2018, 10:30:14 PM »

Online nickagneta

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Finally, someone who loves getting into the draft on this site that sees how good Doncic is.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2018, 01:07:00 PM »

Offline wiley

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Finally, someone who loves getting into the draft on this site that sees how good Doncic is.

I think Doncic is pretty clearly the best player in the draft right now.  I just think the draft so often becomes about hope and potential and 5 years down the road who has the best ceiling and all of that. So in that sense I think Ayton and Porter (if he stays in) will go ahead of Doncic.  Then Bagley may or may not go ahead of Doncic.  Thus with Porter in I see Doncic as pick 3 or 4.  And without Porter in I see Doncic as pick 2 or 3. 

For any team who's already got a lot of youth and they're tired of losing and tired of all the hard work of developing guys, I could see Doncic as an attractive option.  So I guess that's how I could see Doncic going #1.  For example Phoenix has so much youth and athleticism already and may have rebuilding fatigue.  They may see Doncic as an accelerator to getting more wins sooner. 

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2018, 01:39:47 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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TP to CFAN38!

Crush of draft tierage. Thank you.

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2018, 03:06:22 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Good list. I like Carter and I don't like young but both belong in tier 2 probably

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2018, 01:05:10 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas.  I think Ayton should remain tier 1. 

I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.

I agree I need to add K Thomas.  At this point their are so many prospects its tough not to miss some. My next tiers I will add Thomas, Okogie (who I really like for the Cs), Bruce Bowen, DiVincenvo, Spellman and Mykhailiuk

I like Ayton but feel that Doncic is a generational talent. The question for Doncic will be how well his physical profile transitions to the longer faster NBA. His skill set is so elite for a 19 year old that I feel confident placing him a tier above. With that said Ayton may very well wow in workout and take the #1 spot. Ayton also has the potential to be a corner stone elite talent but his Defense is a major concern for me.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2018, 01:15:13 PM by CFAN38 »

Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2018, 01:08:08 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas.  I think Ayton should remain tier 1. 

I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.

I agree I need to add K Thomas.  At this point their are so many prospects its tough not to miss some. My next tiers I will add Thomas, Okogie (who I really like for the Cs), Bruce Bowen, DiVincenvo, Spellman and Mykhailiuk

It'll be interesting to see where DiVincenzo is projected and if he ends up pursuing the draft.
"As far as playing, I didn't care who guarded me - red, yellow, black. I just didn't want a white guy guarding me, because it's disrespect to my game."
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Re: Pre Tournement draft tiers
« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2018, 02:01:32 PM »

Offline liam

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missing a guy I like....Khyri Thomas.  I think Ayton should remain tier 1. 

I think Doncic will be pick 3 or 4 in this draft but I'm just guessing.

I agree I need to add K Thomas.  At this point their are so many prospects its tough not to miss some. My next tiers I will add Thomas, Okogie (who I really like for the Cs), Bruce Bowen, DiVincenvo, Spellman and Mykhailiuk

It'll be interesting to see where DiVincenzo is projected and if he ends up pursuing the draft.

DiVincenzo should come out this year or risk a drop like Grayson Allen. DiVincenzo should be a 1st round pick around the 20s. Grayson Allen is probably an early second rounder...