Author Topic: My offseason idea  (Read 1714 times)

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Re: My offseason idea
« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2018, 07:07:17 PM »

Offline TheTruthFot18

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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.


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Re: My offseason idea
« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2018, 07:18:16 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
while your specific point is probably correct (rozier & pick in the 20s), i have trouble believing the next year's sacramento pick will be in the bottom third of the draft.

for the past five years sacramento's draft place was:
5th
8th
6th
8th
7th

unless you can provide a strong argument that they have somehow turned the corner, i see another year of a prime draft pick from them.

plus, the celtics will also have the following:

2019 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 1st round pick to Boston (via Memphis) protected for selections 1-14 in 2019

2019 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-8 in 2019

It is quite possible the celtics will have the assets to bundle with the sacramento pick and move up a tiny bit.
Sacramento is horrible. If they end up with the #1 pick, Philly keeps that pick and Boston gets Philly's pick, which given how good they could be, would put the pick in the 20s.

Remember, that Sac pick is #1 protected.
So while the pick could be in the 20s, by saying that you are also agreeing that the pick has probably something like a 70% chance of ending up in the top 4 or 5 which I'm assuming will be valued quite highly because it looks like it might have two draft classes worth of elite guys and possibly Michael Porter Jr. on top of that. (1 and done guys plus possible high school kids).
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Re: My offseason idea
« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2018, 07:19:18 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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One year of Rozier and a Sacramento pick that could end up in the 20s is not getting you into the lottery this year.
The Philly pick which is tied to the Sac pick could end up in the 20s, but its misleading to say the Sac pick could end up in the 20s. There's pretty much 0 chance of that.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: My offseason idea
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2018, 09:21:58 PM »

Offline GRADYCOLNON

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I've come back over to the keep Rozier camp.  Early in discussions of Rozier's future, I argued vehemently for trading him.  However, my reasoning is more of a hybrid of the two ideas.  Hear me out:

Rozier becomes a restricted free agent the same summer as Irving and Horford, 2019.  The Celtics are expected to take their first dip into the Luxury Tax, something they can no longer avoid.  Fortuitous timing will and standard rookie contract structuring give the Celtics bird rights to Rozier exactly when they are not worried about paying too much.  Despite possibly racking up a bigger bill, keeping Rozier on a new deal will help to maximize his value to the Celtics.

Retaining Rozier benefits the Celtics in the short term in two ways.  First, they are only paying him three million dollars next season, an unheard of price for a sixth man. Second, he will still hold this bench together with the expected improvements the team has been harvesting.  The steady improvements are a major reason why this move also works for the long haul. 

Signing Rozier beyond the 2019 summer will offer the Celtics a chance to collect on their patience.  Most of us agree Rozier could be a starter and a fringe all-star.  We point to his steady growth as a good indicator he will continue to grow. I agree, but there will be a point he will be strangled by his limited role.  Just like a plant stuck in an undersized pot, we know it will struggle to grow.  The best solution to this problem is to get a bigger pot with more soil, essentially more room.  The same applies to Rozier.  This is where both sides come together, just farther down the road than we expect. 

Trading Rozier in the summer of 2020 will be the best opportunity for the Celtics to maximize his value.  We will get 2 more seasons of steady improvements, he will get paid, and another team will be willing to pay near top dollar for a 26-year-old Rozier. 

The extra two seasons out of Rozier will do a few things.  First, it will help Irving weather his chronic knee soreness.  Provide the bench scoring the team desperately will need, keeping this team's champion ceiling high.  Allow the Celtics to determine what direction they want to go in the future.  By paying Rozier, the waiting will open up new doors that they wouldn't have if they traded him this summer. 

As for his trade value two seasons from now, Rozier will have ironed out some kinks in his game: possibly improved playmaking, higher shooting percentages, and better pick and roll defense.  Rounding out as a player who can take on point guard responsibilities, on either side of the ball, will make a team, desperate for a starting point guard, salivate.  This is where the Celtics get their return on Rozier.  Affordable in this case doesn't actually mean cheap. 

Re: My offseason idea
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2018, 09:40:03 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I've come back over to the keep Rozier camp.  Early in discussions of Rozier's future, I argued vehemently for trading him.  However, my reasoning is more of a hybrid of the two ideas.  Hear me out:

Rozier becomes a restricted free agent the same summer as Irving and Horford, 2019.  The Celtics are expected to take their first dip into the Luxury Tax, something they can no longer avoid.  Fortuitous timing will and standard rookie contract structuring give the Celtics bird rights to Rozier exactly when they are not worried about paying too much.  Despite possibly racking up a bigger bill, keeping Rozier on a new deal will help to maximize his value to the Celtics.

Retaining Rozier benefits the Celtics in the short term in two ways.  First, they are only paying him three million dollars next season, an unheard of price for a sixth man. Second, he will still hold this bench together with the expected improvements the team has been harvesting.  The steady improvements are a major reason why this move also works for the long haul. 

Signing Rozier beyond the 2019 summer will offer the Celtics a chance to collect on their patience.  Most of us agree Rozier could be a starter and a fringe all-star.  We point to his steady growth as a good indicator he will continue to grow. I agree, but there will be a point he will be strangled by his limited role.  Just like a plant stuck in an undersized pot, we know it will struggle to grow.  The best solution to this problem is to get a bigger pot with more soil, essentially more room.  The same applies to Rozier.  This is where both sides come together, just farther down the road than we expect. 

Trading Rozier in the summer of 2020 will be the best opportunity for the Celtics to maximize his value.  We will get 2 more seasons of steady improvements, he will get paid, and another team will be willing to pay near top dollar for a 26-year-old Rozier. 

The extra two seasons out of Rozier will do a few things.  First, it will help Irving weather his chronic knee soreness.  Provide the bench scoring the team desperately will need, keeping this team's champion ceiling high.  Allow the Celtics to determine what direction they want to go in the future.  By paying Rozier, the waiting will open up new doors that they wouldn't have if they traded him this summer. 

As for his trade value two seasons from now, Rozier will have ironed out some kinks in his game: possibly improved playmaking, higher shooting percentages, and better pick and roll defense.  Rounding out as a player who can take on point guard responsibilities, on either side of the ball, will make a team, desperate for a starting point guard, salivate.  This is where the Celtics get their return on Rozier.  Affordable in this case doesn't actually mean cheap.
1. Kyrie is a free agent in 2019, same as Rozier is a RFA. Horford has a player option in 2019 but he isn't going to opt out, so I don't know why you are claiming Kyrie, Horford and Rozier all come off together.

2. No way do I see Rozier being a future All-Star. Possibly a future starter on a bad team, but thats best case scenario.

3. What exactly are you suggesting when you say pay Rozier. At this point he probably is, at best, a $7-8 million a year player. Don't see him getting much more than that.

4. The only thing that is going to get Kyrie's knee better is offseason surgery, not resting while playing a lot less minutes and giving those minutes to Rozier