Fascinating Takeaways from the Sloan Conference

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Kevin O'Connor provides his usual lucidity.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/2/26/17052150/mit-sloan-sports-analytics-conference-jimmy-butler-daryl-morey

He talks about several things.

1. How the public misuses stats, particularly defensive stats. In it, one of the takeaways is the language we use for defensive rating. "For example, you might see the following sentence somewhere on the internet: VanVleet leads the Raptors with a 97.8 defensive rating. But that’s not true. The correct way to convey the statistic is: The Raptors have a 97.8 defensive rating when VanVleet is on the floor. "

2. Trade reform ideas. Some suggestions included the ability to put protections on picks based on how the player you receive performs, and the ability to trade away part of your ping pong balls.

3. There were questions about Jimmy Butler's next contract and the Wolves future cap situation.

4. There's also a cool new system that lets coaches draw up an offensive play on a tablet and then simulate how a defense might respond to it.

It was a good read, but I'd like to hear what people think about the trade reform ideas. Thoughts? I like both suggestions.

[johnnygreen]

Regarding the trade reform ideas, they sound too gimmicky. Plus I would imagine that the teams would also have to negotiate the terms/define "performance" of a player when traded for a draft pick. It just seems to add another layer, and may make it extremely difficult to get trades completed before a trade deadline.

[Monkhouse]

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Regarding the trade reform ideas, they sound too gimmicky. Plus I would imagine that the teams would also have to negotiate the terms/define "performance" of a player when traded for a draft pick. It just seems to add another layer, and may make it extremely difficult to get trades completed before a trade deadline.

Kind of how I see it. Why are we protecting teams with terrible GM's or front offices?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I didn't actually look at the article, since I'm a little busy at work, but I hate how the trade reform sounds.

So you want to protect teams that don't research or expand well enough on the player their receiving? I don't get how it works, I'll check it once I get home from my double, but it sounds like the NBA is trying to protect teams from dumb decisions, and that should be on them... If you make a really bad trade, and it ends up like the Brooklyn Nets fiasco, then that should be on you. NBA should stop reinforcing more laws to protect teams, because ultimately, that's the whole point of hiring a GM/front office.

And trade away part of the ping pong balls? Hmmm, I'm gonna have to take a look at this later, because it sounds incredibly diffcult to appropriate.

It's not the NBA suggesting it -- it's Morey. Other pro leagues have similar protections they offer. In other words, you trade a player away for a draft pick, but if that player does not play at least 20 games, the draft pick would have heavier protections. Obviously, there are other factors (what about DNP-Rest games, etc.), but in general, it's not a terrible idea.

Both trade protections may be difficult to track, but isn't there software that can do that? Aren't there entire positions for teams and the NBA that could track that?

[More Banners]

Those 2 trade ideas seem to be just part of throwing crap at the wall.

They'll never eliminate or insure for trade regret.

And I guess the other, sort of adding another way to trade and/or get value things draft related. I guess there could be a trade market/season between the end of the regular season, when the number of balls are established by final record, and the draft lottery. It puts those non-playoff teams in the press when otherwise it's all about the playoffs.

Yeah. I can see how this might function, but I can see it not being worth it.

[Roy H.]

I didn't actually look at the article, since I'm a little busy at work, but I hate how the trade reform sounds.

So you want to protect teams that don't research or expand well enough on the player their receiving? I don't get how it works, I'll check it once I get home from my double, but it sounds like the NBA is trying to protect teams from dumb decisions, and that should be on them... If you make a really bad trade, and it ends up like the Brooklyn Nets fiasco, then that should be on you. NBA should stop reinforcing more laws to protect teams, because ultimately, that's the whole point of hiring a GM/front office.

And trade away part of the ping pong balls? Hmmm, I'm gonna have to take a look at this later, because it sounds incredibly diffcult to appropriate.

It's not the NBA suggesting it -- it's Morey. Other pro leagues have similar protections they offer. In other words, you trade a player away for a draft pick, but if that player does not play at least 20 games, the draft pick would have heavier protections. Obviously, there are other factors (what about DNP-Rest games, etc.), but in general, it's not a terrible idea.

Both trade protections may be difficult to track, but isn't there software that can do that? Aren't there entire positions for teams and the NBA that could track that?

At some point teams just have to assume some risk.

If I trade you an all-star and he subsequently gets injured, why should I get below market value? Maybe your training staff didn’t do its job. Maybe your coach overplayed him.  Why is the risk of bad luck solely on me, rather than you?

Maybe it should be allowed in negotiations, I’d just never agree to that condition.

I don’t think tracking would be a huge issue, but teams tying up draft picks due to the Stepian rule could be.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Maybe I didn't explain it well or the article was unclear, but the protections based on player performance could be negotiated into the trade. They would not be a given.

The argument in the article is that, since draft picks are the primary way to equalize value in a trade, giving those draft picks more protections would further give teams control of the trade.

Those protections may not be included in most trades, but it gives teams another tool to use in trades.

[kozlodoev]

Kevin O'Connor provides his usual lucidity.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/2/26/17052150/mit-sloan-sports-analytics-conference-jimmy-butler-daryl-morey

He talks about several things.

1. How the public misuses stats, particularly defensive stats. In it, one of the takeaways is the language we use for defensive rating. "For example, you might see the following sentence somewhere on the internet: VanVleet leads the Raptors with a 97.8 defensive rating. But that’s not true. The correct way to convey the statistic is: The Raptors have a 97.8 defensive rating when VanVleet is on the floor. "

2. Trade reform ideas. Some suggestions included the ability to put protections on picks based on how the player you receive performs, and the ability to trade away part of your ping pong balls.

3. There were questions about Jimmy Butler's next contract and the Wolves future cap situation.

4. There's also a cool new system that lets coaches draw up an offensive play on a tablet and then simulate how a defense might respond to it.

It was a good read, but I'd like to hear what people think about the trade reform ideas. Thoughts? I like both suggestions.

I've always thought (1) is pretty obvious. At least if you read the descriptions of how these stats are calculated, as opposed to just blindly parroting numbers.

(2) is already done in other major sports, I think.

[Monkhouse]

I didn't actually look at the article, since I'm a little busy at work, but I hate how the trade reform sounds.

So you want to protect teams that don't research or expand well enough on the player their receiving? I don't get how it works, I'll check it once I get home from my double, but it sounds like the NBA is trying to protect teams from dumb decisions, and that should be on them... If you make a really bad trade, and it ends up like the Brooklyn Nets fiasco, then that should be on you. NBA should stop reinforcing more laws to protect teams, because ultimately, that's the whole point of hiring a GM/front office.

And trade away part of the ping pong balls? Hmmm, I'm gonna have to take a look at this later, because it sounds incredibly diffcult to appropriate.

It's not the NBA suggesting it -- it's Morey. Other pro leagues have similar protections they offer. In other words, you trade a player away for a draft pick, but if that player does not play at least 20 games, the draft pick would have heavier protections. Obviously, there are other factors (what about DNP-Rest games, etc.), but in general, it's not a terrible idea.

Both trade protections may be difficult to track, but isn't there software that can do that? Aren't there entire positions for teams and the NBA that could track that?

Morey should be the last one to talk... There should've been endless unprotected picks headed towards the Rockets for the Harden trade lol.

I didn't actually look at the article, since I'm a little busy at work, but I hate how the trade reform sounds.

So you want to protect teams that don't research or expand well enough on the player their receiving? I don't get how it works, I'll check it once I get home from my double, but it sounds like the NBA is trying to protect teams from dumb decisions, and that should be on them... If you make a really bad trade, and it ends up like the Brooklyn Nets fiasco, then that should be on you. NBA should stop reinforcing more laws to protect teams, because ultimately, that's the whole point of hiring a GM/front office.

And trade away part of the ping pong balls? Hmmm, I'm gonna have to take a look at this later, because it sounds incredibly diffcult to appropriate.

It's not the NBA suggesting it -- it's Morey. Other pro leagues have similar protections they offer. In other words, you trade a player away for a draft pick, but if that player does not play at least 20 games, the draft pick would have heavier protections. Obviously, there are other factors (what about DNP-Rest games, etc.), but in general, it's not a terrible idea.

Both trade protections may be difficult to track, but isn't there software that can do that? Aren't there entire positions for teams and the NBA that could track that?

At some point teams just have to assume some risk.

If I trade you an all-star and he subsequently gets injured, why should I get below market value? Maybe your training staff didn’t do its job. Maybe your coach overplayed him.  Why is the risk of bad luck solely on me, rather than you?

Maybe it should be allowed in negotiations, I’d just never agree to that condition.

I don’t think tracking would be a huge issue, but teams tying up draft picks due to the Stepian rule could be.

That is literally how I see it.

[PhoSita]

Given how excited casual fans get about trades / the trade deadline these days, I don't see the league taking steps that would make trades too much more complicated than they already are.

They want the casual fan to be able to understand how and why trades are made, and how the trades affect the team in the future.

[gift]

Given how excited casual fans get about trades / the trade deadline these days, I don't see the league taking steps that would make trades too much more complicated than they already are.

They want the casual fan to be able to understand how and why trades are made, and how the trades affect the team in the future.

Also, the more options you give teams the more ways deals have to fall apart. You could see deals not happen that otherwise would have because they couldn't agree to conditional terms.

[More Banners]

Thinking a bit more now...

What about when trading injured or coming off injury players?  It's a huge problem.

Some protections could actually make trades of glass players more easy, rather than just making it more complicated for no reason. Like Roy, I wouldn't take the terms - unless it was the only way I could trade an injured star for a high pick.