Author Topic: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?  (Read 1547 times)

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Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« on: February 22, 2018, 02:50:58 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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There is currently the biggest race to the bottom I can remember in the NBA. A loaded draft class coupled with 8 teams within 2 games of the worst record (and last year before lottery reform). What will we see these last 20 games?

How common is it for there to 8 teams this close to the worst record with 20 games left?
It seems really crazy.

To put this in perspective If you look at last season the team with the 4th worst record won 8 more games than the worst record. The 8th worst won 11 more. The year before it was 20 more!
The year before 15. This is going to get ugly. Curious if Silver takes actions against teams resting healthy veterans.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2018, 03:11:31 PM »

Online nickagneta

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There is currently the biggest race to the bottom I can remember in the NBA. A loaded draft class coupled with 8 teams within 2 games of the worst record (and last year before lottery reform). What will we see these last 20 games?

How common is it for there to 8 teams this close to the worst record with 20 games left?
It seems really crazy.

To put this in perspective If you look at last season the team with the 4th worst record won 8 more games than the worst record. The 8th worst won 11 more. The year before it was 20 more!
The year before 15. This is going to get ugly. Curious if Silver takes actions against teams resting healthy veterans.
Well, the Celtics play a bunch of games against those teams for the remainder of the season, so maybe its a good thing.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2018, 03:14:37 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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There is currently the biggest race to the bottom I can remember in the NBA. A loaded draft class coupled with 8 teams within 2 games of the worst record (and last year before lottery reform). What will we see these last 20 games?

How common is it for there to 8 teams this close to the worst record with 20 games left?
It seems really crazy.

To put this in perspective If you look at last season the team with the 4th worst record won 8 more games than the worst record. The 8th worst won 11 more. The year before it was 20 more!
The year before 15. This is going to get ugly. Curious if Silver takes actions against teams resting healthy veterans.
Well, the Celtics play a bunch of games against those teams for the remainder of the season, so maybe its a good thing.

While it would be nice at some level to have some stress free easy wins (although i am not sure that will happen) every other contending team will play them too and it will just make for some bad basketball...

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2018, 03:19:10 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity. 

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2018, 03:47:11 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom. 

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2018, 03:53:10 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom.

You beat me to it. 100% agree total number of wins is not the problem. The issue will be total number of teams who do not want to win. There will be alot of tank vs tank games to end the season. Sad for fans who are paying to see those games.

To Ainge's credit he saw this coming. Hence the 3-6 protection on the LA pick with the Kings pick as a back up and the willingness to move this Nets pick.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2018, 04:09:16 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom.
The wins do matter though.  When the worst team has 10 wins, instead of say 20 wins, those extra 10 wins have to go somewhere, and they likely aren't going to the top teams. 

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2018, 04:22:13 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The fact that there aren't any teams with a clear "lead" in the tank race makes it more likely that the teams in the hunt will tank more agtressively. I dont agree that it means games will be more competitive.
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Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2018, 04:33:09 PM »

Online nickagneta

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.
Don't see the relevance. CC's point is about the number of teams close to the bottom and the amount of teams that will tank hard to get to the bottom. Don't see at all how many wins the bottom 6 or less teams over the past 7 years has anything to do with the subject.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2018, 04:40:06 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom.

You beat me to it. 100% agree total number of wins is not the problem. The issue will be total number of teams who do not want to win. There will be alot of tank vs tank games to end the season. Sad for fans who are paying to see those games.

To Ainge's credit he saw this coming. Hence the 3-6 protection on the LA pick with the Kings pick as a back up and the willingness to move this Nets pick.

Yeah thank you. TP, seems like everyone gets it. More teams with a chance at the bottom with a chance at number 1 is the issue whether they are all at 5 or 15 wins.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2018, 04:43:01 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.
Don't see the relevance. CC's point is about the number of teams close to the bottom and the amount of teams that will tank hard to get to the bottom. Don't see at all how many wins the bottom 6 or less teams over the past 7 years has anything to do with the subject.

Yea I thought he was supporting my point at first, but this aspect isn't really relevant. The issue is 8 teams with a legit shot at the number 1 pick whether they have 5, 15 or 22 wins. I think Silver sees this problem on the horizon for the rest of the season and may have fed into Cuban's fine being so large (600k). Trying to send a message to get ahead of it before things get really crazy.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2018, 05:51:09 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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The tankfest may be more exciting than the playoff race.  How low can some of these teams go?  Atlanta appears to have a good shot.  ESPN has them with one of the easiest schedules so far and of their remaining games only 5 are against teams currently in the bottom 10. 

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2018, 06:30:03 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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LOL at Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday being DNP-CD. Cristiano Felicio (!) and Nwaba starters for ROS likely.

 
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 06:49:39 PM by rondofan1255 »

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2018, 07:17:28 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Yes. But I've never had a problem with tanking. I mean these teams are out of it one way or another, and in some ways the purposeful losing just gives fans a reason to watch that they wouldn't otherwise have. Even if tanking didn't exist teams would still transition to giving playing time to young guys (who will likely help lose) just to see what they have. On top of all that its kind of fascinating to watch play out. I dont care about any of these teams (outside of the Lakers) and i will still pay attention.

Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2018, 08:09:57 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Yes. But I've never had a problem with tanking. I mean these teams are out of it one way or another, and in some ways the purposeful losing just gives fans a reason to watch that they wouldn't otherwise have. Even if tanking didn't exist teams would still transition to giving playing time to young guys (who will likely help lose) just to see what they have. On top of all that its kind of fascinating to watch play out. I dont care about any of these teams (outside of the Lakers) and i will still pay attention.

They do make for some real cheap games to attend in markets that are otherwise very expensive. I would like to see some of these vets gets freed from these nonsense. Like why do the suns free monroe but keep chandler for the last moments he has of nba effectiveness.