Author Topic: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense  (Read 7218 times)

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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #120 on: February 22, 2018, 07:24:11 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

The only time I like to use per-36 stats is as I did above, to note the rate at which a player does something, i.e. how often they shoot threes, free throws, etc.

You're right that per-100 possessions is a better statistic to use, regardless.

Moranis shrugs off the stat as irrelevant but there's a pretty major difference between a player in a complimentary offensive role who attempts a handful of threes per-36 versus a player who attempts 5-6.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #121 on: February 22, 2018, 08:27:23 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

That's a good point though. How many possessions does an average game have?
Idiot.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #122 on: February 22, 2018, 08:54:00 PM »

Offline Moranis

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You guys do realize that Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown have nearly identical per 100 possession numbers for both year 1 and year 2, right? Hmm that is strange and can't possibly be right because they are so different.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #123 on: February 22, 2018, 10:36:29 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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You guys do realize that Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown have nearly identical per 100 possession numbers for both year 1 and year 2, right? Hmm that is strange and can't possibly be right because they are so different.

It also doesn't mean they are the same, or that they will be the same in the future.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #124 on: February 22, 2018, 11:01:18 PM »

Online nickagneta

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Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #125 on: February 22, 2018, 11:16:12 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.
Hey you're talking about the Rising Stars "MVP"!
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #126 on: February 23, 2018, 06:33:05 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.
Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown in year 2 were both the second leading scorer, 2nd on their team in shots, etc.  They not only have similar advanced metrics but also similar totals, rates, etc. Now sure Boston is a much better team record wise then the Thunder were but their roles and stats were nearly identical.  And I've said all along it doesn't mean years 3, 4, etc. will be similar.   Brown absolutely could continue to improve and continue his upward trajectory or he could stay flat or he could regress.  The past is not an indicator of the future on these things because everything could happen. 

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #127 on: February 23, 2018, 07:59:56 AM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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I don't know why being Jeff Green is a knock, maybe he is the Jeff Green that becomes consistently good as he ages and doesn't become static. Good JG is a top notch player, he just never found a way to turn it on most nights. The Jeff Green that would go blow for blow with LBJ and sometimes outperform him but do it more often. Consistency is huge. He was consistently average but had another gear he didn't access nearly enough. Give me a Jeff Green with an alpha mindset and we're doing well. I hope that's jaylen but either way it's too early to say who he is either way.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #128 on: February 23, 2018, 08:28:21 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

The only time I like to use per-36 stats is as I did above, to note the rate at which a player does something, i.e. how often they shoot threes, free throws, etc.

You're right that per-100 possessions is a better statistic to use, regardless.

Moranis shrugs off the stat as irrelevant but there's a pretty major difference between a player in a complimentary offensive role who attempts a handful of threes per-36 versus a player who attempts 5-6.
BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers. 

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #129 on: February 23, 2018, 09:46:33 AM »

Offline JBcat

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Jeff Green was a 3 year college player so he was still in college at the same age Brown is in his 2nd year in the NBA.  Let痴 see how their stats compare next year, and the year after for Brown.

Not to mention I just think they are different type athletes where Brown has more upside.  Brown has more agility and body control, lateral movement, and power than Green had. If he tightens his handle even more, and develops a more refined offensive game watch out.  Green is very good at straight line drives where he can elevate, and he is probably getting more opportunities like that in Cleveland with more open space.  He痴 never been one to really create on his own IMO.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #130 on: February 23, 2018, 10:21:05 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers.

40% of Jaylen's shots this year are threes.  That's a much higher rate than Green has ever approached in his career.  Green's career high is 34.6%, and that was last season.

I would appreciate your "changing league" argument more if Green's perimeter attempts had increased over time, but this hasn't been the case to the degree that one would expect if Green really were a similar kind of player in a similar kind of role to Brown.

Jaylen's shot profile through 2 seasons marks him as a wing player, and in year two he's already an above average 3 point shooter despite entering the league with a reputation as a player with poor range.

Green was always a tweener who seemed to have the potential to become more of a perimeter player ("top 5 SF"), but never developed the consistent outside shot or the shot profile of that kind of player.


I will acknowledge that Brown and Green have similarities.  I just don't agree that Green is the best comparison here, as you have suggested.  There are other players who entered the league at a more similar age and played a more similar role from the get-go whose stats are more relevant and comparable.  Those players are by and large guards and wings.  Not all of them have gone on to anything like stardom; some have not even, to date, established themselves as useful rotation players.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #131 on: February 23, 2018, 10:22:48 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Context matters. Their stats remove the context. That's huge here.


I mean Jason Tatum and Bogan Bogdanovic in Sacramento have very close per 36 and 100 possession stats. Which do you want in the future. Tatum a guy putting up his numbers on a contender or the guy putting up stats on one of the worst teams in the league who can't play a lick of defense?

Context matters.

I'd also point out that Bogdan is 25 years old and spent years playing professional ball overseas before coming here.

So yeah.  Context is crucial.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #132 on: February 23, 2018, 10:37:37 AM »

Offline tankcity!

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BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers.

40% of Jaylen's shots this year are threes.  That's a much higher rate than Green has ever approached in his career.  Green's career high is 34.6%, and that was last season.

I would appreciate your "changing league" argument more if Green's perimeter attempts had increased over time, but this hasn't been the case to the degree that one would expect if Green really were a similar kind of player in a similar kind of role to Brown.

Jaylen's shot profile through 2 seasons marks him as a wing player, and in year two he's already an above average 3 point shooter despite entering the league with a reputation as a player with poor range.

Green was always a tweener who seemed to have the potential to become more of a perimeter player ("top 5 SF"), but never developed the consistent outside shot or the shot profile of that kind of player.


I will acknowledge that Brown and Green have similarities.  I just don't agree that Green is the best comparison here, as you have suggested.  There are other players who entered the league at a more similar age and played a more similar role from the get-go whose stats are more relevant and comparable.  Those players are by and large guards and wings.  Not all of them have gone on to anything like stardom; some have not even, to date, established themselves as useful rotation players.

Stop making sense please. Moranis's brain can't handle it.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #133 on: February 23, 2018, 10:40:31 AM »

Offline tankcity!

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.

The only time I like to use per-36 stats is as I did above, to note the rate at which a player does something, i.e. how often they shoot threes, free throws, etc.

You're right that per-100 possessions is a better statistic to use, regardless.

Moranis shrugs off the stat as irrelevant but there's a pretty major difference between a player in a complimentary offensive role who attempts a handful of threes per-36 versus a player who attempts 5-6.
BTW, on the 3 point thing.  In 08/09 the Thunder as a team shot 11.6 3's per game.  Green's 3.2 attempts led the team (just ahead of Durant and well ahead of 3rd) and comprised over 27.5% of the total attempts.  Boston this year attempts 31.4 3's a game.  Brown's 4.6 is nearly 2 attempts lower than Irving, is tied with Smart, and barely ahead of Rozier.  That 4.6 is less than 15% of the total 3's attempted by the team.

In other words, Green was a far more active and important 3 point shooter than Brown is, despite Brown taking more attempts.  So yeah, not the best comparison, but not at all for the reason you think it is.  The league was just a different beast back then when it comes to the 3 ball.  And as I said in my last post, both Green and Brown took the 2nd most shots on the team and were the 2nd leading scorers.

Can I ask you something. Do you ever watch a player play on TV? Or do you just evaluate players based off stats?

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #134 on: February 23, 2018, 10:43:20 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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How did this become an argument about Jeff Green and Jaylen Brown?

When Jeff Green was 21, he was a very promising prospect.  Brown at 21 is an even more promising prospect.  Promise doesn't always translate and it may not for Brown but I am very high on Jaylen Brown.  Green had length that Brown doesn't have but Brown has an edge in everything else that I can think of including intangible things like competitiveness.  There is never an exact comparison or any way to know how a player will play in the future but I feel Reggie Lewis may be a more apt comp for Brown than Jeff Green (other than the fact that both last names are colors).

That isn't saying Brown and Lewis are the same as Lewis was more of a scorer than a shooter (Lewis played center in college) but I feel that Brown is going to improve and find a lot more ways to score as he develops and could ultimately impact the game as much as Lewis did.