Author Topic: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense  (Read 7220 times)

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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #105 on: February 22, 2018, 11:15:52 AM »

Offline Snakehead

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I actually think the comparison right now is very apt with how Jaylen can fade in and out of games and in games.  It's his second year though so that's fine enough.

Jeff Green is one of the best finishers in the NBA when he wants to be and can be a real top level talent.  Just zero consistency.  It's not really an insult to a second year player.  If Jaylen gets more consistent (which I think he will) he will rise above that.

 I would say he's already better on defense than Green ever has been as well.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #106 on: February 22, 2018, 11:18:59 AM »

Offline Snakehead

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Jaylen Brown as a rookie had a higher TS% than Jeff Green had at any time while he was playing for OKC.  His TS% is even higher in his second season.

He's also shooting a much higher percentage on threes this year than Jeff Green ever has for a full season.

Furthermore Jeff Green hasn't had a significantly positive DPM since 2010, whereas Jaylen is at +0.8 in his second season which is pretty good.

All signs point to Jaylen being a solid defender and a good shooter, neither of which have ever been good descriptors for Jeff Green over any significant sample of games.

Brown's second year TS% is 54.7%. Green's was 53.6%

Brown's shooting 37.8% this year from 3. In his second year, Jeff Green shot 38.9%.

I don't think anyone would dispute Brown is a better defender, but as a 2nd year player Green was highly regarded.

You're right, I misread the shooting stats re: 3P%.

Green was highly regarded as a second year player, sure, but he was also 22 already.

Even setting that caveat aside, I think we can agree if Jaylen has hit his peak in his second season, like Green seemed to do, we will all have a problem.

Green showed promise and then never really improved.

Green just never was consistent in making an impact.  Even on the Cavs right now you will see him have moments of clarity where he goes to the rim like an All NBA player but then he fades out.  Mentality is a gigantic part of NBA basketball, to the point that it's the difference between a lot of guys even making the league or not.  Some guys are not consistent at all and it's their mentality.

I don't think Jaylen has the same vibes as Jeff Green and he's younger and in his second year.  He does have the inconsistency but so does almost every second year player.

I will say that Jaylen has work to do to become an All Star type and it's not a given.  Tatum either.  Celtics fans have gone overboard with that all year.  These guys are not guaranteed stars at all.  And I'm high on both.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #107 on: February 22, 2018, 11:44:30 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #108 on: February 22, 2018, 12:52:53 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3.  Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career.  At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2.  And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25.

a) Jeff Green was more than a full year older in each of his corresponding NBA seasons than Jaylen Brown.  He had played three full seasons totally 3388 minutes at Georgetown (plus more tournament games) compared to Jaylen playing just one season at Cal for a total of 939 minutes.

b) In addition to having played an additional 2400+ college minutes, Green played a whopping 2253 minutes his rookie season (and eventually another 2873 minutes by the end of his 2nd season).  By comparison, Brown played just 1556 minutes total (including playoffs) his rookie year and is on pace for perhaps about 2500 this season.

c) Green played SF & PF for a crappy OKC team.   Brown has been playing SF & SG for a very competitive Celtics team.

They are at very different age and experiential points in their careers.

This is ultimately a lazy comparison.  One can plug in Jaylen's first and second year numbers and look for players with similar numbers and you get over a 100 matches, ranging from Keith Bogans to Ryan Gomes to Kawhi Leonard.

Is it possible that Jaylen will plateau as a similar player to Jeff Green?  Certainly.

Is it possible that he grows to a ceiling of Kawhi Leonard?  Certainly.

Both are possible.  Neither statement informs us of very much.
I've also mentioned plenty of other players that took a jump from year 1 to year 2, but regressed (including some that are were as raw or rawer than Brown).  Or that come in and are pretty consistent across the board. 

And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Okay so if we can name players that got better, players that got worse, players that stayed the same and everything in between what does that tell us about the predictive power of these numbers. They are useless. You could say you are worried about Jaylen becoming Jeff Green, but if I said I think he'll be Kawhi Leonard I would have as much evidence on my side as u do. Hell probably be somewhere in between.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #109 on: February 22, 2018, 12:52:55 PM »

Offline Moranis

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And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #110 on: February 22, 2018, 01:00:02 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.

Statistically, they are all well within any reasonable error margin.  Noise.  I.E., they are all the same person. 

Another way of saying that is that, if you used any one of those as the seed for, say, a 538 CARMELO style career projection, you'd find the error bars on each career projection to be so large and to overlap so broadly with each other that it would be basically like they are all predicting the same career.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #111 on: February 22, 2018, 01:02:26 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.


You're leaving out the number of three point attempts, which is one of the more significant indicators of offensive role and efficiency.  It makes a big difference.

Jeff Green per 36 minutes attempted 1.2 threes in his first year and 3.1 threes in his second year.

Jaylen per 36 minutes attempted 3.6 threes as a rookie and 5.3 as a sophomore.


Huge difference.


Also, I don't care which stat line is most similar to Jeff Green.  I care about which stat line is most similar to Jaylen Brown.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #112 on: February 22, 2018, 04:16:12 PM »

Offline Moranis

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And there really aren't that many players that are comparable in both year 1 and year 2 in stats, rates, and team roles with Jaylen Brown like Jeff Green is.   

Honestly, if you look at the numbers, guys like Eric Gordon, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Ben McLemore, Kevin Martin are all much more apt comparisons to Jaylen's production in Year 2 than Jeff Green.
we are talking both year 1 and year 2 though.

Here is Brown year 2 totals:
31.6 mpg , 14 p, 5.4 r, 1.6 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 1.7 t, 2.9 f - 50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT

Now here are those guys and Jeff Green
31.2 m, 11.9 p, 6.0 r, 1.6 a, 1.7 s, 0.6 b, 1.1 t, 1.7 f - 55.4, 37.4, 82.5

36.0 m, 16.9 p, 2.6 r, 3.0 a, 1.1 s, 0.2 b, 2.3 t, 1.5 f - 50.3, 37.1, 74.2

36.8 m, 16.5 p, 6.7 r, 2.0 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.6 f - 46.3, 38.9, 78.8

32.1 m, 12.3 p, 2.9 r, 1.9 a, 1.3 s, 0.2 b, 1.3 t, 1.9 f - 54.3, 35.4, 82.0

26.6 m, 10.8 p, 3.6 r, 1.3 a, 0.8 s, 0.1 b, 1.1 t, 1.9 f - 53.4, 36.9, 84.7

32.6 m, 12.1 p, 2.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.2 b, 1.7 t, 2.7 f - 50.7, 35.8, 81.3

30.4 m, 16.5 p, 3.5 r, 2.9 a, 0.9 s, 0.3 b, 2.1 t, 2.1 f - 51.3, 38.6, 91.4

Now you tell me, which stat line most closely resembles Jeff Green.


You're leaving out the number of three point attempts, which is one of the more significant indicators of offensive role and efficiency.  It makes a big difference.

Jeff Green per 36 minutes attempted 1.2 threes in his first year and 3.1 threes in his second year.

Jaylen per 36 minutes attempted 3.6 threes as a rookie and 5.3 as a sophomore.


Huge difference.


Also, I don't care which stat line is most similar to Jeff Green.  I care about which stat line is most similar to Jaylen Brown.
I meant Brown obviously, not Green. 

Kawhi attempted 3.5 3 pointers per 36.  Kevin Martin 3.4. 

You are just cherry picking random things, which are just nonsensical because you can't bear to think that Jaylen Brown's first two seasons look an awful lot like Jeff Green's first two seasons.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #113 on: February 22, 2018, 04:19:41 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #114 on: February 22, 2018, 04:42:19 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #115 on: February 22, 2018, 04:47:07 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Haven't been on this blog in a while. Just want to say I told you guys Jaylen Brown would be good...As for the Jeff Green comp, it's pretty funny. Who cares what Moranis says haha. The guy has been wrong a lot. He like Noel for example, and any other player Philly had. Don't let it bother you. Just enjoy the ride. We have great young players who continue to improve every day.

Jaylen Brown always shows up in big games. Jeff Green shrinks in those games. Jeff Green isn't blocking Kevin Durant. To me not worth reading into the stats. Jeff Green was great his first two years. He just didn't get better. I believe Brown will. That's the diff.


Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #116 on: February 22, 2018, 04:47:49 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.

Lol what a rip.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #117 on: February 22, 2018, 04:52:14 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.
Idiot.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #118 on: February 22, 2018, 05:01:14 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.

Not even box score stats. Per-36 projections that have a tenuous basis in reality.


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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #119 on: February 22, 2018, 05:04:17 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Sure, that's it. Couldn't be that I genuinely think they're different players in different roles and I believe youre making a lazy analysis based on superficial characteristics and simplistic box score stats.
As well as breaking those stats down to the ridiculous per minute permutation to have the argument in the first place.

I think this is unfair. Standardizing the numbers of a group of players that play 26-37 minutes to
production per 36 minutes seems pretty reasonable to me.

What about 17 minutes vs. 28 minutes?

And, per-36 numbers are outdated, anyway. It makes sense to standardize stats via per-100 possessions.



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