Author Topic: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense  (Read 7208 times)

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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #75 on: February 21, 2018, 12:09:22 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
If you're saying Brown is a side or role player now, I agree. If you're saying that's what he will turn out as, I couldn't disagree more.

Ya i mean he went from rotation prospect to solid starter on top 5 NBA team in one year. He made substantial improvements last year first to second half, again to start this season, and we are just now seeing him doing things like shoot off screens, dish of drives and handle in pick and roll. Not sure why some are so quick too limit his ceiling. He obviously needs to make improvements to reach a star level, but he doesn't really have any substantial weakneses that will handicap him.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #76 on: February 21, 2018, 12:16:14 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I keep seeing this BBIQ thing, and honestly i don't know where people are coming from with this. He generally speaking takes good shots he can make and does so in the flow of the offense. He is looking more and more to pass of drives, in the pick and roll and when doubled in the post. He sticks with his man and has done a much better job working within the team defense this year. He has cut down his turnover % from while upping his usage this year. Where exactly is the low basketball IQ?

One play stands out to me. Rozier had gotten switched on KP in the Knicks game and Jaylen was following his man to the corner. He realized KP had a huge size mismatch on Rozier and saw his man jogging to the corner backed turned so he tapped Rozier on the shoulder and told him to follow his guy while he bodied up KP in the post. KP still had a size advantage but at least it was no longer comical. Thats a good heads up high BBIQ basketball player in the course of game action.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #77 on: February 21, 2018, 12:41:18 AM »

Offline triboy16f

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Iguadala is a finals mvp.  Heís been highly dependable over his career.  Not sure how comparing him to Brown is supposed to be a slight to Brown.  Also, the player that Brown is now isnít anything like the player that he will become.  You act like heís a finished product rather than the rapidly improving athletic freak with a great body that he is.

Dont expect alot from Brown.

He is not a self starter.... Smart getting in his face/inspiring him is a good thing

When I say side player...i mean he is an assistant type like Horford. Starting calibre, just not a player thay can carry a team...through tough times

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #78 on: February 21, 2018, 01:17:11 AM »

Offline CelticsJG

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[qPlentyuthor=keevsnick link=topic=95465.msg2463199#msg2463199 date=1519190174]
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I keep seeing this BBIQ thing, and honestly i don't know where people are coming from with this. He generally speaking takes good shots he can make and does so in the flow of the offense. He is looking more and more to pass of drives, in the pick and roll and when doubled in the post. He sticks with his man and has done a much better job working within the team defense this year. He has cut down his turnover % from while upping his usage this year. Where exactly is the low basketball IQ?

One play stands out to me. Rozier had gotten switched on KP in the Knicks game and Jaylen was following his man to the corner. He realized KP had a huge size mismatch on Rozier and saw his man jogging to the corner backed turned so he tapped Rozier on the shoulder and told him to follow his guy while he bodied up KP in the post. KP still had a size advantage but at least it was no longer comical. Thats a good heads up high BBIQ basketball player in the course of game action.
[/quote]

Getting looks in the flow to the offense has nothing to do with IQ. Jaylen not good in the PnR, hence why we dont use him why we dont use him that role.  If had good IQ he would be initiating the offense. Also never said BBIQ, it just where it should be. Numerous times where he looked lost on defense and offense, dribbling into multiple defenders, driving and throwing it out bounds, careless turnovers and not to mention all the dumbs.

Starting to see this a lot with Jaylen, we equating his BBIQ with his general IQ which shouldn't be the case.




Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #79 on: February 21, 2018, 02:48:34 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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[qPlentyuthor=keevsnick link=topic=95465.msg2463199#msg2463199 date=1519190174]
I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I keep seeing this BBIQ thing, and honestly i don't know where people are coming from with this. He generally speaking takes good shots he can make and does so in the flow of the offense. He is looking more and more to pass of drives, in the pick and roll and when doubled in the post. He sticks with his man and has done a much better job working within the team defense this year. He has cut down his turnover % from while upping his usage this year. Where exactly is the low basketball IQ?

One play stands out to me. Rozier had gotten switched on KP in the Knicks game and Jaylen was following his man to the corner. He realized KP had a huge size mismatch on Rozier and saw his man jogging to the corner backed turned so he tapped Rozier on the shoulder and told him to follow his guy while he bodied up KP in the post. KP still had a size advantage but at least it was no longer comical. Thats a good heads up high BBIQ basketball player in the course of game action.

Getting looks in the flow to the offense has nothing to do with IQ. Jaylen not good in the PnR, hence why we dont use him why we dont use him that role.  If had good IQ he would be initiating the offense. Also never said BBIQ, it just where it should be. Numerous times where he looked lost on defense and offense, dribbling into multiple defenders, driving and throwing it out bounds, careless turnovers and not to mention all the dumbs.

Starting to see this a lot with Jaylen, we equating his BBIQ with his general IQ which shouldn't be the case.
[/quote]

Theres alot more involved in BBIQ than the ability to run the pick and roll. Getting shots in the flow of the offesne is absolutely related to basketabl IQ. Knowng when to cut, when to clear out a side of the floor, when to take advatge of a mismatch  are all things off ball players do that require knowing how to play in the offense. Lack of pick and roll polish is not even nesscariliy  related to Low BBIQ, pick and roll requires a number of skills like ball handeling, change of pace dribbling and tight passes that Jaylen hasnt mastered yet (although as Lowe points out those skills are beggining to develop for him). He doesnt get lost on defense or offense nearly as much as you seem to suggest, and while he does make some carelss mistakes at times you can see the though behind it and as his skills catch up to his athleticsim those mistake will delcine.

And please dont tell me i'm confusing his real life IQ with his basketabll IQ, I'm not. You are making that insinuation so that you can detract from my argment without actually making an argument yourself.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #80 on: February 21, 2018, 09:40:41 AM »

Offline td450

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Jaylen is 21 and is posting pretty efficient offensive numbers for a top 5 team, and he is depended on to max out on defense.

So far, the team has asked him to play disciplined offense. He only takes someone off the bounce a few times a game. Until he got to the NBA, he never really had anyone meet him at the rim that he couldn't overpower. He never developed that extra layer of skills you need to deal with NBA level help defense. You can already see him starting to figure it out. He just needs more reps driving to the rim.

Jaylen and Jayson both have some of the same problems taking someone off the dribble. They need to slow down, change the angle on their second step, and develop a reliable set of shots in the 5-10 foot range when they can't get all the way. Tatum needs to work on finishing with his left hand. My guess is that by the end of next year, they will both be impossible to stop.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #81 on: February 21, 2018, 10:14:41 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons. 

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #82 on: February 21, 2018, 11:26:31 AM »

Offline jambr380

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

2007-08 Seattle - 20-62
2008-09 OKC - 23-59

2016-17 Boston - 53-29
2017-18 Boston (so far) 40-19

One has to assume that if Jaylen Brown was playing on ~20 win teams, he would have a lot more leeway and have a more expansive role. They may look to have a similar level of production, but Brown is being held accountable for every decision he makes and is a much better defensive player than Jeff Green ever was.

And this is coming from somebody who has continually defended Jeff Green. The guy has gotten way more flack than he ever deserved - it would be amazing to have him coming off the bench for our team this year! Even still, Brown has a lot more potential and the way he is being coached should really benefit him throughout the rest of his career.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #83 on: February 21, 2018, 11:36:23 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

2007-08 Seattle - 20-62
2008-09 OKC - 23-59

2016-17 Boston - 53-29
2017-18 Boston (so far) 40-19

One has to assume that if Jaylen Brown was playing on ~20 win teams, he would have a lot more leeway and have a more expansive role. They may look to have a similar level of production, but Brown is being held accountable for every decision he makes and is a much better defensive player than Jeff Green ever was.

And this is coming from somebody who has continually defended Jeff Green. The guy has gotten way more flack than he ever deserved - it would be amazing to have him coming off the bench for our team this year! Even still, Brown has a lot more potential and the way he is being coached should really benefit him throughout the rest of his career.

Not only that, but Jaylen is younger and has made a bigger sophomore leap. Who expected the kid to be an above-average starter and excellent defender this year?


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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #84 on: February 21, 2018, 11:55:16 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

The really weird thing about Green is that he never turned into a high-level shooter from 3.

His college and early NBA numbers were promising, and heís a good FT shooter.

If he had been a 40% shooter from deep his whole career would have been different.

And on the other hand Jaylen has many more warning signs in terms of college shooting and FTs and so far heís proving to be a very capable (and improving) shooter from that area.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #85 on: February 21, 2018, 12:51:51 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #86 on: February 21, 2018, 01:05:48 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I totally see the Jeff Green comparisons, not personality wise, but game wise.  Statistically on a per minute basis they are very close in both the 1st year and 2nd year.  I mean it is pretty scary how similar their production actually is.  That isn't to say that Brown will end up with a Green like career, but you can't just totally discount it either given they have nearly identical 1st and 2nd seasons.

Yes, the two are pretty simlar rthorugh their first two years. But the entire knock on Jeff Green was that he never got any better, that he wasted his physical gifts and could have been more than he was. You say that we cant discount Jayleen Brown having a Jeff green like career because of his statistsicall comaprison to Jeff Green, but that ignores so many other variables including the fact he's already better from 3 then Jeff Green. He plays on a better team which likely supresses his raw numbers, he is a year younger relative to Jeff Green, and again they are nowhere near the same attitude wise, Jaylen has already so massively imroved, and continues to improve. In alot of ways making a statistcial coaprison and saying Jaylen Brown could end up like player x is a coomplete waste of time because with young guys you just dont know what they will become, but since we are doing it compare Jaylen with Paul George year two. Very similar. So i guesss we can't rule out he becomes a top 10-15 player like George either. If Jeff green is his floor, and Paul George his ceiling i'm pretty happy abut it.
Jeff Green's 2nd year in the league he shot 38.9% from 3.  Green's 2nd year he played 36.8 mpg and scored 16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.4 bpg, 2.2 tpg, 2.6 fpg and shot 46.3% from 2, 38.9% from 3, and 78.8% from the line.

His advanced stats from that season: 53.6 TS%, 10.4 RB%, 9.1 AST%, 1.4 ST%, 0.8 BLK%, 12.6 TOV% with a 21.2% USG and a PER of 13.9.

Those were fairly significant improvements from the 1st to 2nd year, pretty much across the board for Green.

Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

I think a lot of people misremember the jump Green took from year 1 to year 2 because Green then stayed pretty flat the rest of his career.  At his peak, Green was essentially the same player he was in his 2nd year, but Green absolutely took a pretty big leap from year 1 to year 2.  And yes, Green was older than Brown, but he was 22 his entire 2nd year, he wasn't 25. 

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #87 on: February 21, 2018, 01:23:12 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

Thereís a context that youíre ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.


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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #88 on: February 21, 2018, 01:48:00 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

Thereís a context that youíre ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.

Certainly different situations.    Jeff Green's team won 43 games COMBINED his first two years in the league while Jaylen played on a team that won 53 his rookie season and on pace to do even better this season.


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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #89 on: February 21, 2018, 01:48:20 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Quote
Here are Jaylen Brown's 2nd year advanced stats (since he plays less minutes).  54.7 TS% (50.9 2PT, 37.8 3PT, 58.8 FT), 9.3 RB%, 8.0 AST%, 1.6 STL%, 1.0 BLK%, 11.9 TOV% with a USG of 20.6 and a PER of 12.6.

Brown actually doesn't show much improvement in many of those categories from his 1st to 2nd year, which is much diferent then Green who took a pretty big efficiency jump from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much all of those categories (which again is unlike Brown). 

Thereís a context that youíre ignoring, though. Jaylen went from getting 17 mpg to playing twice that many on a good playoff team.  Meanwhile, on both raw numbers and a per possession basis, he improved every single stat except blocks, despite playing against starters and expending energy as an elite defender.
I didn't ignore that context at all. 

Per 36 Brown year 1
13.8 p, 5.9 r, 1.7 a, 0.9 s, 0.5 b, 1.8 t, 3.8 f - 20 of 78 games started

Per 36 Green year 1
13.4 p, 6.1 r, 1.9 a, 0.7 s, 0.8 b, 2.5 t, 3.2 f - 52 of 80 games started

Per 36 Brown year 2
16.0 p, 6.2 r, 1.8 a, 1.1 s, 0.4 b, 2.0 t, 3.3 f - started every game (54 thus far)

Per 36 Green year 2
16.2 p, 6.5 r, 1.9 a, 1.0 s, 0.4 b, 2.2 t, 2.5 f - started every game (78)


As I've been saying nearly identical stats.  They also have nearly identical roles on those teams (at least in year 2).  Sure, Boston was a better team than Seattle/Oklahoma City, but the similarities are uncanny from a role, production, etc. stand point. 

And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Brown will level off like Green did, but Green wasn't the first or last person to not show much growth (I mean look at old friend KO for another guy that didn't show much growth in his game).  Look at Myles Turner from the draft before Brown.  Great 2nd year with nice growth from year 1 to year 2, but a major regression this year.  Maybe Turner doesn't turn it around and year 2 was his best year.  Then again, maybe Brown is like Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. that show tremendous growth every season. 

Obviously only time will tell on which way Brown ends up, but the comparison to Green thus far is pretty spot on given their actual roles and their actual on-court production (not personality wise, but production wise).