Author Topic: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense  (Read 7223 times)

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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #60 on: February 19, 2018, 01:59:12 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Jaylen browns defensive ceiling is miles high. Avery's has always been severely limited by his lack of size and strength.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #61 on: February 19, 2018, 02:24:08 PM »

Offline footey

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Pretty big tangent here, but Jeff Green is actually having pretty nice year in Cleveland. That career 32% from three just kills him though.

I mentioned this a few weeks ago in another thread, but IMO he looks 'roided up.

Lebron introduced him to his trainer.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #62 on: February 19, 2018, 03:36:32 PM »

Offline JBcat

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It occurs to me that Jaylen is a little bit like a 6'7" Avery Bradley right now. Shoots high 30s from outside. Defends. 15 points per night. Better rebounder, more versatile, but lower defensive ceiling (i.e. Bradley was elite in certain matchups). Puts in the work.

If 21 year-old Brown is a step ahead of 23/24 year-old Bradley and follows a similar path of improvement the next 3-5 years, that's an All-Star.
The question is, how much money will a 23/24 year old brown command, will he be worth it, and will the Celtics be able to afford it?
Unless he completely stagnates over the next 2 years, which given his growth from season 1 to season 2 isn't likely, he will get the max contract for a player coming off their rookie contract. That's the same year Horford comes off the books so we will see if we can afford both.
Brown is going to have to improve a lot to be worth 25M+.  Irving and Hayward will be making 30M+ each.  Tatum will hopefully need to get paid Max the following season.

Ya, the Celtics cap sheet going forward is very complicated just in terms of who and how much you pay. What it really comes down to is how much Brown/tatu improve. If Brown is almost as good as Hayward or trending that direction then you let Hayward go and pay Brown. Or maybe Brown or Tatum stagnates. Or maybe Hayward takes a step back after his injury. Or 1000 other things. Its too early to wrry about how much we have too pay Brown or Ttaum because we have no idea what they will be next year or the year after.

Or if they are all being great players pay the tax. Lol

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #63 on: February 19, 2018, 05:50:14 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Boston's problem isn't that they take a lot of threes, their problem is they don't make a lot of threes. They do a real good job of getting open looks. They just don't knock them down.

.370, for 7th in the league. Could be better, I guess, but other areas are more deficient, like FT productivity.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #64 on: February 19, 2018, 06:29:22 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Boston's problem isn't that they take a lot of threes, their problem is they don't make a lot of threes. They do a real good job of getting open looks. They just don't knock them down.

.370, for 7th in the league. Could be better, I guess, but other areas are more deficient, like FT productivity.
Per mmmmm who posted this elsewhere

Irving is a lazy player for the most part. The reason why i say that is because he can literally get to the rim and finish AT WILL, against ANYONE. Yet, he decides to take contested 3's that he never comes close to making. It's just lazy basketball.

That isn't quite what's happening, actually.

Kyrie is actually shooting at a pretty good percentage on contested shots.  He has shot 39.2% on threes that are "tightly" covered (defender between 2 and 4 ft away) and 30% on "very tight" (defender within 2 ft).  The latter is a very small sample of just 10 shots all season, but 30% is actually good on that kind of shot.  And his 39.2% on tightly contested shots (which are his largest sample) is actually very good.  Most player's efficiency tanks with defenders that close.

Where Kyrie is underperforming is, like a lot of our roster, on "wide open" threes.  That is, on shots that have no defender within 6 ft and definitely NOT "contested".   On those shots, Kyrie is shooting just 34.1%.   That's well-below league average (~40%) for wide-open threes.

Unfortunately, Kyrie is not alone.  Only Jayson (46.8%), Yabusele (45.5%), Horford (44.9%) and Jaylen (40.0%) are shooting league-average or above on wide-open threes.   The rest of the roster are all shooting 36.1% or lower on what should be a much higher-percentage shot.

This is very much counter to what is 'normal'.  Most players tend to shoot much, MUCH better on wide-open threes.  Hence the league average is so much higher on that shot than on threes with tighter coverage.   But other than for the 4 guys I mentioned, not so for the Celtics!

Our bizarre underperformance on these shots (which our offense has actually been very good at generating) and our paucity of attempts at the rim (and poor finishing at the rim) are the two glaring reasons our offense is so bad.

As a team, we rank near the bottom of the league in efficiency at these two shot types.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #65 on: February 20, 2018, 03:55:28 PM »

Offline CelticsJG

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I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #66 on: February 20, 2018, 04:00:31 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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Pretty big tangent here, but Jeff Green is actually having pretty nice year in Cleveland. That career 32% from three just kills him though.

This will likely get me a lot of heat but if Morris is traded in the off-season I wouldn't mind the Cs signing Green to the bench. Assuming they sign Smart for less then 9 mill they will have less then the MLE to sign Baynes or Monroe and then will have to get creative to fill the roster and stay under luxury tax. Trading Morris and signing Green to take his spot would make sense.   

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #67 on: February 20, 2018, 04:32:05 PM »

Online Roy H.

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I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.


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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #68 on: February 20, 2018, 04:52:53 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #69 on: February 20, 2018, 04:57:12 PM »

Offline BackDoorCut

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I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Jaylen was all rookie second team. On a team that was 1st place in the east which typically means no minutes for rookies. Not sure what else you expect. He wasn't terrible by any measure.  ::)

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #70 on: February 20, 2018, 05:17:14 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
If you're saying Brown is a side or role player now, I agree. If you're saying that's what he will turn out as, I couldn't disagree more.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #71 on: February 20, 2018, 05:27:16 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season

Side player? Role player?

I don't know how you can even watch the Celtics this year, and get that impression.
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Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #72 on: February 20, 2018, 08:09:46 PM »

Offline moiso

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Iguadala is a finals mvp.  He’s been highly dependable over his career.  Not sure how comparing him to Brown is supposed to be a slight to Brown.  Also, the player that Brown is now isn’t anything like the player that he will become.  You act like he’s a finished product rather than the rapidly improving athletic freak with a great body that he is.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #73 on: February 20, 2018, 08:33:38 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Jaylen is a "side player"  in the mold of iguadala

A guy that you cant depend on game in and game out but provides solid D, chips in offensively and may have unexpected offensive outbursts

Tatum has more of a killer instinct but needs to work on his body this offseason. His 19 year old skinny body is not capable to endure a 80 plus game season
Iguadala is a finals mvp.  He’s been highly dependable over his career.  Not sure how comparing him to Brown is supposed to be a slight to Brown.  Also, the player that Brown is now isn’t anything like the player that he will become.  You act like he’s a finished product rather than the rapidly improving athletic freak with a great body that he is.

TP.

Re: Zach Lowe on Jaylen Brown and the Celtic's Offense
« Reply #74 on: February 20, 2018, 08:41:11 PM »

Offline CelticsJG

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I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Except Jaylen could have regressed, stagnated, or improved marginally. Instead, we ended up with a good starter in year two. That type of progress is pretty rare.

Hard chance for him to regress from last year because how bad he was. If Jaylen was PG then I'll agree with you since they take an extra year to develop. Wings in the NBA tend to improve faster so I am not surprise at the progress.

His biggest improvements depends on how well his feel and BBIQ improves because they are behind schedule. Also need to work on his finishing and becoming a little better shooter

I'll wait to year 3 to judge Jaylen. Year 1 to year 2 leap is not surprising to me because he terrible his rookie season so he not choice to go but to improve.

Jaylen was all rookie second team. On a team that was 1st place in the east which typically means no minutes for rookies. Not sure what else you expect. He wasn't terrible by any measure.  ::)

Jaylen making rookie his 2nd year dont mean much given how bad that class was. He rarely played the first half his rookie year. Second half he played in spots and garbage time. Not to mention the number of times he got benched.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 08:51:09 PM by CelticsJG »