Author Topic: The best format for projecting players  (Read 457 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

The best format for projecting players
« on: February 16, 2018, 07:24:35 AM »

Offline CFAN38

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3719
  • Tommy Points: 304
As a huge draft fan I find myself often wondering the best way to describe/project a prospect. So draft writers/sites focus mostly on player comps, others on basic stats, and others on analytics. I personally think the normal Ayton reminds me of Ewing and Young is Steph Curry player comps leave way to much grey area. Stats can lie because of a players role or team style. The analytics are great but also difficult for the casual fan to consistently work with.

I am going to take a stab at my own rudimentary format and use it on a few prospects this year to see how it plays out. As the draft gets closer I will create a separate post to list out and tier rank a bunch of guys but this post will serve as my test.

1. Closest physical comp

2. projected role

3. Clear NBA Skills

4. Holes coming into NBA   

5.  Player Comp projections

They idea is to create a 1-6 scale of players who have similar physical skills and fill the same potential role in the NBA. 1 being a fringe NBA player, 2 a lower end nightly rotational player, 3 high end rotational player/occasional starter, 4 solid starter, 5 fridge all star and 6 perennial all-star.

Player

Trae Young

1. Closest physical comp: Seth Curry

2. Projected role: Scoring Lead Guard

3. Clear NBA Skills: creating space for shot, court vision, shooting at all levels 

4. Holes coming into NBA: lack of strength and length, ability to defend starting caliber point guards   

5. Player Comp projections

1. Jimmer Fredette
2. Seth Curry
3. JJ Barea
4. Jason Terry
5. CJ McCollum
6. Steph Curry

I would place Trae Young as a 4.5. I believe his offensive skill set will translate as long as the team drafting him hands him over the reins to the team. Given that he is likely to be drafted in the top 7 this should not be a problem. Coaching and engagement on defense will likely be the deciding factor in how good a pro Young can be.

Ideal draft night fit: figuring he goes top 8 and looking at the standings as of 2/16 I would say the post Lebron Cavs would be a great fit, as would the Magic, and the Suns. The Suns would be able to create a similar dynamic to GS if they can pair and develop Young and Booker.


Re: The best format for projecting players
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2018, 08:17:19 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16241
  • Tommy Points: 1060
There is not one, most of the comparisons are junk.  But yet the human mind has a need to create them to understand things.

Re: The best format for projecting players
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2018, 09:47:30 AM »

Offline CFAN38

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3719
  • Tommy Points: 304
Another example using a non elite prospect

Player

Keita Bates-Diop

1. Closest physical comp: Kawhi Leonard


2. Projected role: utility 3-D wing

3. Clear NBA Skills: has size and length to defend both forward positions capable shooter

4. Holes coming into NBA: lacks a clear go to skill well rounded everywhere but needs to improve over all

5. Player Comp projections

1. Deshaun Thomas
2. Solomon Hill
3. Jae Crowder
4. DeMarre Carroll
5. Luol Deng
6. Kawi Leonard

I would place Bates-Diop at a 2. He plays a position of need so projecting as a role player still makes him a solid late first round pick. With the NBA playing a more position-less game players who can switch between defending the traditional 2,3 and 4 are very valuable. Bates-Diop is reported to have an over 7'3 wingspan at 6'7 235 this makes him the ideal switching defender     

Ideal draft night fit: looking late in the first the Celtics, Warriors, and Spurs are all teams that value defensive versatility. The Hawks are going to have 2 picks in the 20s and already have shown they like this type of player having drafted T Prince a couple years ago. 

Re: The best format for projecting players
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2018, 12:18:38 PM »

Offline libermaniac

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1811
  • Tommy Points: 171
Good stuff.  TP

Re: The best format for projecting players
« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2018, 09:23:17 AM »

Offline CFAN38

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3719
  • Tommy Points: 304
Mo Bamba

1. Closest physical comp: Lucas Nogueira 

2. Projected role: rim protecting big/ pick and roll dive man

3. Clear NBA Skills: extreme length and shot blocking, high end rebounder and mobility for his size

4. Holes coming into NBA: needs to get stronger and refine offense

5. Player Comp projections

1. Lucas Nogueira
2. Alex Ajinca
3. Javale Mcgee
4. John Henson
5. Rudy Gobert
6. Dikembe Mutombo


I would Bamba as a 4.5. I am always leery of big man prospects that have positional strength issues that is the only thing holding me back from ranking Bamba higher. The simplest way to describe Bamba is a player who is 25lbs of muscle away from having the ideal tools to be a future defensive player of the year. A stronger consistently engaged Bamba could anchor elite defenses for the next 12-14 years. He also isnít a total loss on offense as he has shown some shooting touch and the ability to take advantage of mismatches in the paint.   
 
Ideal draft night fit: Bamba is likely to go 4th to 8th is going to be best off going to a team that will have some patience and allow him to develop. If a team drafts him thinking he is a day one starter then they may be disappointed. I would also like to see him on a team with an established point guard as this will go a long way to developing his offence. While not ideal for their team short term the Grizz would be a nice fit and would give him time to develop behind Gasol. Although I hate to see him wasted on such an inept franchise he could also be a nice long term fit in Sacramento with Fox.