Author Topic: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!  (Read 609 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« on: February 12, 2018, 05:07:31 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9748
  • Tommy Points: 719
  • On To Banner 18!
The Celtics are 15-0 when Baynes plays 23 OR more minutes/game.

They are 25-18 in all other games where he plays LESS than 23 minutes.

The correlation and statistics are there Brad, play him more!!  :laugh:
2018 Mock Trade Deadline (New York Knicks)

Roster: Porzingis, Kanter, Hardaway Jr, Julius Randle, Schroder, Beasley, Alex Abrines, Jarrett Jack, Frank Ntilikina, Lance Thomas, Kyle Singler, Josh Huestis, Ron Baker, Trey Burke, Luke Kornet, Isaiah Hicks

Future Draft Picks: https://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knick

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2018, 05:10:15 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
The Celtics are 15-0 when Baynes plays 23 OR more minutes/game.

They are 25-18 in all other games where he plays LESS than 23 minutes.

The correlation and statistics are there Brad, play him more!!  :laugh:
The problem is (and this was known in Detroit, AFAIK) that Baynes has stamina issues so he fades down the stretch. He hasn't been nearly as good recently as he was at the start of season.
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2018, 05:12:19 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9748
  • Tommy Points: 719
  • On To Banner 18!
The Celtics are 15-0 when Baynes plays 23 OR more minutes/game.

They are 25-18 in all other games where he plays LESS than 23 minutes.

The correlation and statistics are there Brad, play him more!!  :laugh:
The problem is (and this was known in Detroit, AFAIK) that Baynes has stamina issues so he fades down the stretch. He hasn't been nearly as good recently as he was at the start of season.

Oh yeah I'm aware of that.

I was just half joking with this post  :P

That said I hope Baynes finds his groove again after the ASB. He has done well for us and can actually rebound, just needs to make his shots more consistently again.
2018 Mock Trade Deadline (New York Knicks)

Roster: Porzingis, Kanter, Hardaway Jr, Julius Randle, Schroder, Beasley, Alex Abrines, Jarrett Jack, Frank Ntilikina, Lance Thomas, Kyle Singler, Josh Huestis, Ron Baker, Trey Burke, Luke Kornet, Isaiah Hicks

Future Draft Picks: https://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Knick

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2018, 05:13:57 PM »

Offline hodgy03038

  • NCE
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2546
  • Tommy Points: 43
  • Marcus Smart #1 Fan
Plus he really needs to get up some more 3 point shots. Nobody can or will guard him.


Hey Jaylen. I lost 519 Tommy Points betting on you guys and lost

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2018, 05:17:44 PM »

Offline Green-18

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 594
  • Tommy Points: 55
I wish it was that easy.  Unfortunately Baynes has played less because our team hasn't been effective with him on the floor for a while.

Baynes +/- per 100 possessions in wins = +14.1
Baynes +/- per 100 possessions in loss = -14.6
 

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2018, 06:11:32 PM »

Offline Snakehead

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6846
  • Tommy Points: 448
I wish it was that easy.  Unfortunately Baynes has played less because our team hasn't been effective with him on the floor for a while.

Baynes +/- per 100 possessions in wins = +14.1
Baynes +/- per 100 possessions in loss = -14.6

Not sure about your logic here man.   He just needs to play more and the defense will be better.  Last game was a great example.   We got small with Morris and it turns out Morris isn't nearly as good or as good for winning as Baynes.

And meanwhile, we start Morris who has absolutely never been good with the starters at any point ever.  There's no debate if you want to win games.  Start and play Baynes.  We can hang our hat on defense with him, instead of hanging out hat on mediocrity with Morris.  If you're going to put up those very skewed Baynes numbers (which again I don't see the logic in) lets talk about the Morris numbers.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 06:16:43 PM by Snakehead »
"I really don't want people to understand me." - Jordan Crawford

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2018, 06:13:43 PM »

Offline Snakehead

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6846
  • Tommy Points: 448
I'm assuming you are taking this from Grande, so here's the real deal:

https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/962925889108545536

Quote
Celtics when Baynes plays 22:30 or more: 15-0
Celtics when Baynes plays 20:00 or more: 22-3
Celtics when Baynes plays under 20:00: 18-15

I'm a big Brad Stevens fan but he has a flaw in how loyal he is to some guys and also in rotations at times he is in such a rush to go small he loses the entire strength of the team and then ruins the rotations (last game we had 3 quality big men off the bench, that just doesn't work).  Morris has been real bad at times and awful with the starters so I am tired of him starting Morris.  It's been too long to stick with him out of loyalty.  He doesn't improve the offense and this team needs to focus on defense or it's going nowhere.

We miss Smart a ton (it's crazy how underrated he is around here in that area in that I hardly see it mentioned he's out and how that effects defense, energy, and passing) and these rotations have got to go.  Enough with the experiments.
"I really don't want people to understand me." - Jordan Crawford

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2018, 06:16:28 PM »

Offline mctyson

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4635
  • Tommy Points: 348
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018/lineups/#lineups_4-man_::3

The reality is that our best lineups have Baynes in them.  I have to believe Stevens knows this, and as much as I hate his small lineups, understand that Baynes needs to be healthy and rested for the playoffs. 

There is no reason to play in 30 mins a night.

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2018, 06:17:33 PM »

Offline Snakehead

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6846
  • Tommy Points: 448
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018/lineups/#lineups_4-man_::3

The reality is that our best lineups have Baynes in them.  I have to believe Stevens knows this, and as much as I hate his small lineups, understand that Baynes needs to be healthy and rested for the playoffs. 

There is no reason to play in 30 mins a night.

Even if that was the case, he still can start Baynes and he is still playing Morris with the starters which is awful at every point this season.  Theis would be better.  The rotations have been bad and Stevens deserves criticism.
"I really don't want people to understand me." - Jordan Crawford

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2018, 06:24:52 PM »

Offline Chris22

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4238
  • Tommy Points: 377
I have been saying this for weeks.
Brad like Doc Rivers always goes small in the fourth quarter, and we get killed on the boards.

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2018, 06:45:14 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 382
  • Tommy Points: 51
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018/lineups/#lineups_4-man_::3

The reality is that our best lineups have Baynes in them.  I have to believe Stevens knows this, and as much as I hate his small lineups, understand that Baynes needs to be healthy and rested for the playoffs. 

There is no reason to play in 30 mins a night.

I hope that's the reasoning. Baynes is one of our most important players, strange as that may seem. He's a crucial factor in our defense and rebounding. Monroe is the better player, but Baynes is more important to this team and should start.

And I agree with the majority that we should always play two bigs. Horford/Baynes has been a great combination (to my surprise, actually) and on paper Theis/Monroe could also work very well. I hope that Theis and Monroe will play significant time together to see if chemistry develops between them.

There always needs to be context to stats, but I looked a little at the stats of the different line-ups and (apart from the implied importance of Baynes) I found that Brown was almost always in the best line-ups whatever statistic I sorted, maybe we are underestimating him. Furthermore Irving doesn't really stand out and is not in the best combinations when it comes to passing. Also I was not surprised that Tatum seems to be very replaceable by whatever bench player.
Idiot.

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2018, 06:45:57 PM »

Offline flybono

  • Kyrie Irving
  • Posts: 849
  • Tommy Points: 44
The Celtics are 15-0 when Baynes plays 23 OR more minutes/game.

They are 25-18 in all other games where he plays LESS than 23 minutes.

The correlation and statistics are there Brad, play him more!!  :laugh:


What game did u watch yesterday? It sure wasn't Celts vs cavs. Baynes got his arse handed to him in the paint.

Quality backup yes, rushed into a starting role, no!

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2018, 06:59:14 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 382
  • Tommy Points: 51
The Celtics are 15-0 when Baynes plays 23 OR more minutes/game.

They are 25-18 in all other games where he plays LESS than 23 minutes.

The correlation and statistics are there Brad, play him more!!  :laugh:

What game did u watch yesterday? It sure wasn't Celts vs cavs. Baynes got his arse handed to him in the paint.

Quality backup yes, rushed into a starting role, no!

Baynes has also played very bad the last couple of weeks. Maybe he is tired. But he is the link to the improved defense and rebounding this season i.m.o. And just like Smart he brings toughness. On offense he's limited, but that goes for a lot of our players. Better ball movement and making more plays could make it easier for everyone.
Idiot.

Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2018, 07:47:42 PM »

Offline Green-18

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 594
  • Tommy Points: 55
I wish it was that easy.  Unfortunately Baynes has played less because our team hasn't been effective with him on the floor for a while.

Baynes +/- per 100 possessions in wins = +14.1
Baynes +/- per 100 possessions in loss = -14.6

Not sure about your logic here man.   He just needs to play more and the defense will be better.  Last game was a great example.   We got small with Morris and it turns out Morris isn't nearly as good or as good for winning as Baynes.

And meanwhile, we start Morris who has absolutely never been good with the starters at any point ever.  There's no debate if you want to win games.  Start and play Baynes.  We can hang our hat on defense with him, instead of hanging out hat on mediocrity with Morris.  If you're going to put up those very skewed Baynes numbers (which again I don't see the logic in) lets talk about the Morris numbers.

I want nothing more than for Baynes to play at the same level from early this season.  I'm also in agreement that we need to work him back into the starting lineup.  Elite defense is the calling card for this particular team.  I posted the stat as a response to the 15-0 stat.  Do I actually think the +/- stat is a true indicator?  Absolutely not.  Do I think Baynes regression has played a large role in our struggles?  Yes.  I'm sure we will continue to win when he plays 23 MPG.  The catch is that he will only play 23 mpg when our team is playing well with him on the court.  I wish it was as simple as giving him more minutes.


Re: More Baynes Minutes = Wins!!!
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2018, 07:58:16 PM »

Offline Chris22

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4238
  • Tommy Points: 377
Baynes knocked Lebron out of the game, so Brad took him out and did not play him again.