Poll

How many wins for the Celtics by the end of this regular season?

63-64
2 (3.2%)
61-62
2 (3.2%)
59-60
4 (6.3%)
57-58
3 (4.8%)
55-56
30 (47.6%)
53-54
11 (17.5%)
51-52
4 (6.3%)
49-50
4 (6.3%)
Less Than 49
3 (4.8%)

Total Members Voted: 63

Author Topic: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?  (Read 6203 times)

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Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #60 on: February 14, 2018, 01:39:46 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Haven't the Celtics played much better than their point differential the last 3 years?

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #61 on: February 14, 2018, 02:15:44 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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If you look at point differential (a better measure than wins for how good a team is), Boston is in the second tier. The first tier is Golden State, Toronto, and Houston. The second tier is Boston, OKC, Spurs, and T-Wolves. If Cleveland's new-found momentum is real, then that might change things.

Point Diff is telling, with the exception of Cleveland.  They are better than their Point Diff and probably should be in the top tier along with Toronto (or maybe Tier 1B).

Monroe is our wild card, much like Ibaka was for Toronto last season (Ibaka did not end up making much of an impact last season).  I believe we are Tier 2 right now as our Point Diff indicates.  Still some time to improve that though.
Boston's expected W/L on basketball-reference is 36-22 (4th).  Cleveland is 28-28 (15th), but Toronto's expected W/L is actually better than their actual record at 42-14 (tied with Houston for 1st - GS is 3rd at 42-15).
I wouldn't use point differential for ranking teams much beyond good, mediocre and bad.  Just compare how the best teams perform against each other. 

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #62 on: February 14, 2018, 02:20:21 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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If you look at point differential (a better measure than wins for how good a team is), Boston is in the second tier. The first tier is Golden State, Toronto, and Houston. The second tier is Boston, OKC, Spurs, and T-Wolves. If Cleveland's new-found momentum is real, then that might change things.

Point Diff is telling, with the exception of Cleveland.  They are better than their Point Diff and probably should be in the top tier along with Toronto (or maybe Tier 1B).

Monroe is our wild card, much like Ibaka was for Toronto last season (Ibaka did not end up making much of an impact last season).  I believe we are Tier 2 right now as our Point Diff indicates.  Still some time to improve that though.
Boston's expected W/L on basketball-reference is 36-22 (4th).  Cleveland is 28-28 (15th), but Toronto's expected W/L is actually better than their actual record at 42-14 (tied with Houston for 1st - GS is 3rd at 42-15).
I wouldn't use point differential for ranking teams much beyond good, mediocre and bad.  Just compare how the best teams perform against each other.

Yea we have done pretty well against the top teams this year with wins over Houston, Golden State, Cleveland, Toronto, San Antonio and OKC. Its really tough to handle how down everyone is on the team because they have struggled recently (which has also coincided with them losing their best perimeter defender)

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #63 on: February 14, 2018, 03:34:10 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Just reading some of the posts here, I agree this team is inexperienced and w/o our 2nd best player (Hayward), we're certainly feeling his loss now and are struggling as of late.

THAT SAID, it seems pretty ridiculous to me seeing people on here saying this is a bad team. Overachieving? That's fine, and I agree. But in reality, they are a bad team? LOL no...

And honestly if this team does finish the last 24 games of the year with less than 11 wins, then it probably means first round exit, but I doubt it. They've had a mediocre stretch lately, but it's not like they've gone on some 10 game losing streak either...
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Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #64 on: February 14, 2018, 03:45:48 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Some games coming up the rest of the season:

@NY
MEM
CHAR
@CHI
@ORL
@SAC
@PHO
CHI
ATL
BRK

That should be 10 wins. ToThink the team won't win 5 or 6 of the remaining 14 games I think is unreasonable given this team's defensive chops. And if they do lose 1 or 2 of these, I can easily see them winning 1 or 2 that people might think they won't.

Hence my prediction of going 16-8 to finish the season.

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #65 on: February 14, 2018, 04:15:40 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Some games coming up the rest of the season:

@NY
MEM
CHAR
@CHI
@ORL
@SAC
@PHO
CHI
ATL
BRK

That should be 10 wins. ToThink the team won't win 5 or 6 of the remaining 14 games I think is unreasonable given this team's defensive chops. And if they do lose 1 or 2 of these, I can easily see them winning 1 or 2 that people might think they won't.

Hence my prediction of going 16-8 to finish the season.

BUT CLEVELAND WON TWO GAMES WITH THEIR NEW GUYS AND WE ARE AWFUL

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #66 on: February 14, 2018, 05:08:06 PM »

Online SparzWizard

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Some games coming up the rest of the season:

@NY
MEM
CHAR
@CHI
@ORL
@SAC
@PHO
CHI
ATL
BRK

That should be 10 wins. ToThink the team won't win 5 or 6 of the remaining 14 games I think is unreasonable given this team's defensive chops. And if they do lose 1 or 2 of these, I can easily see them winning 1 or 2 that people might think they won't.

Hence my prediction of going 16-8 to finish the season.

Idk man, we've seen them grinding out wins against CHA, BKN, ATL, get blown out by CHI and ORL, PHX's Booker putting up 70 points against Boston at one point, and falling to NYK.

On paper yeah they should go 10-0 on these teams. but 5-6 wins look possible with the way they been playing.


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#JFJM (Just Fire Joe Mazzulla)

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #67 on: February 14, 2018, 05:20:27 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Some games coming up the rest of the season:

@NY
MEM
CHAR
@CHI
@ORL
@SAC
@PHO
CHI
ATL
BRK

That should be 10 wins. ToThink the team won't win 5 or 6 of the remaining 14 games I think is unreasonable given this team's defensive chops. And if they do lose 1 or 2 of these, I can easily see them winning 1 or 2 that people might think they won't.

Hence my prediction of going 16-8 to finish the season.

Idk man, we've seen them grinding out wins against CHA, BKN, ATL, get blown out by CHI and ORL, PHX's Booker putting up 70 points against Boston at one point, and falling to NYK.

On paper yeah they should go 10-0 on these teams. but 5-6 wins look possible with the way they been playing.
I'm glad you mentioned Booker's 70 point night from last year in a blowout Celtics win.

If you can find a less relevant piece of evidence I'd be impressed
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Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #68 on: February 14, 2018, 05:33:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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OK, let's look at this in more detail ....


Homes games

LAC, IND, WAS, OKC, TOR . . . .

Those are 50/50 matchups, let's say, but since they're at home it's 55%

MEM, CHI, ATL, BRK, CHA . . . .

Those are bad teams, and the Celts are at home, so let's give them 80%.

Let's say 6/10 there.  Seems reasonable to me.  7/10 also seems doable.


Now, road games.

HOU, TOR  ... those are rough games, I'll give the Celts 33% to win.

CHI, NYK, PHX, SAC, ORL ... those are bad tanking teams, I'll give the Celts 67% to win.

DET, MIN, NOR, POR, UTA, MIL, WAS ... Let's say here the C's have a 40% chance on the road.


All told, let's go with 7/14 on the road.


In total, if I'm looking at this from a granular perspective, it seems totally reasonable to think they might go 13-11 or 14-10.

I really don't see it for the people who think they're gonna go <.500 the rest of the way.

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Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #69 on: February 14, 2018, 09:37:33 PM »

Online SparzWizard

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Some games coming up the rest of the season:

@NY
MEM
CHAR
@CHI
@ORL
@SAC
@PHO
CHI
ATL
BRK

That should be 10 wins. ToThink the team won't win 5 or 6 of the remaining 14 games I think is unreasonable given this team's defensive chops. And if they do lose 1 or 2 of these, I can easily see them winning 1 or 2 that people might think they won't.

Hence my prediction of going 16-8 to finish the season.

Idk man, we've seen them grinding out wins against CHA, BKN, ATL, get blown out by CHI and ORL, PHX's Booker putting up 70 points against Boston at one point, and falling to NYK.

On paper yeah they should go 10-0 on these teams. but 5-6 wins look possible with the way they been playing.
I'm glad you mentioned Booker's 70 point night from last year in a blowout Celtics win.

If you can find a less relevant piece of evidence I'd be impressed

70 points from last year, 38 points from this year coming from the same player at the Garden same crap. Can't keep letting that happen where Booker goes off.

And even right now the Celtics are struggling to even bury the lowly Clippers. They had 2 days of rest and aren't even traveling- what is their excuse. I want to see the Celtics dismantle them after their two days of rest and getting blown out at home on PP34 night, not just barely beating them. (Written at the time 72-70 LAC lead)


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Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #70 on: February 14, 2018, 10:29:55 PM »

Offline Moranis

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OK, let's look at this in more detail ....


Homes games

LAC, IND, WAS, OKC, TOR . . . .

Those are 50/50 matchups, let's say, but since they're at home it's 55%

MEM, CHI, ATL, BRK, CHA . . . .

Those are bad teams, and the Celts are at home, so let's give them 80%.

Let's say 6/10 there.  Seems reasonable to me.  7/10 also seems doable.


Now, road games.

HOU, TOR  ... those are rough games, I'll give the Celts 33% to win.

CHI, NYK, PHX, SAC, ORL ... those are bad tanking teams, I'll give the Celts 67% to win.

DET, MIN, NOR, POR, UTA, MIL, WAS ... Let's say here the C's have a 40% chance on the road.


All told, let's go with 7/14 on the road.


In total, if I'm looking at this from a granular perspective, it seems totally reasonable to think they might go 13-11 or 14-10.

I really don't see it for the people who think they're gonna go <.500 the rest of the way.
basic conclusion i reached as well when actually looking at the schedule.
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Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #71 on: February 14, 2018, 10:48:25 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Well, the way they are playing, reaching 53 wins (last year's total) might not be a given  :(
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #72 on: February 15, 2018, 12:16:27 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Haven't the Celtics played much better than their point differential the last 3 years?

They played worse in 2015/16, but you're right that that's true for 2016/17 and so far this year.

On the other hand I doubt your premise. Since point differential is a better measure of playoff success than win/loss record, it is surely also a better measure of how well a team has played, so a team cannot outplay its point differential.

As Brad recently said, the team is not as good as its record.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 01:52:00 PM by ThePaintedArea »

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #73 on: February 15, 2018, 03:07:10 PM »

Offline Jamilmac99

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I voted 49-50 which obviously would be hugely disappointing. I'm concerned guys. I don't expect Marcus to come back and just be able to flip a switch. Even if they go 53-29 the first round series is going to be a long one which could easily go either way. If Hayward returns I will be more optimistic about going deeper in the playoffs.

Re: Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?
« Reply #74 on: February 15, 2018, 03:17:05 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Well, the way they are playing, reaching 53 wins (last year's total) might not be a given  :(

I think we need context. Let's consider that many thought this team was going to come back to earth before signing Hayward. A win total in the high 40's seemed reasonable.

Then Hayward. Then Kyrie. Minus Hayward. Trade out veterans and add in inexperienced players......

If the Celtics finish in the low-mid 50's, this regular season is a success. Especially since our young players are going to develop as if they were on a bad team, considering the minutes they are getting.