Author Topic: Let's discuss our offense  (Read 3087 times)

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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #90 on: February 14, 2018, 06:28:08 PM »

Offline CelticsJG

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!

How many of those wide open threes are from people who can actually shoot? Kyrie is our only high volume shooter right now, which is a big problem.

Another problem with our offense is the regression of Big Al. His play drop significantly from the beginning of the year.

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #91 on: February 14, 2018, 07:06:13 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!

They talked about this on the Rainin' J's podcast. The system can get guys open shots but if they can't knock them down what does it matter? We were all happy to finally get some guys that can get their own shot and/or get to the rim. They don't do it enough though and tend to take shots they can always get early in the possession. They brick those shots more often than not. The system seems to dictate straddling the fence and not being good enough at either thing. Inconsistency 101

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #92 on: February 14, 2018, 07:57:19 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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waiting till Hayward is playing 100 % .....we are missing a key player ..otherwise the team is what it is till he returns.

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #93 on: February 14, 2018, 08:05:21 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Semi plays because he's committing to defense, while most of the team is not.  Of late, they've made a mockery of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MORBtzEOvQ

For example, when George Hill and LBJ were having their way in the PnR during the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game, adjustments needed to be made -- see Semi's substitution and subsequent defensive switches (Osman).

People seem to give Brad too much credit for the amount of control he has over the team in mid- February.  When your defense is struggling, playing guys that commit on that end is a way -- sometimes the only way -- to get buy-in.  It's that simple.
I would love to see the advanced defensive stats for Semi. What do opponents shoot against him? The percentages on how good is he defending the pick and roll. How good do people he is guarding shoot the three? What do people shoot against him when he defends in the paint?

Maybe having those stats would enlighten us on why Stevens uses Semi so much.

If most internet posters can agree that he's not a great defender by the eye test, I wouldn't care to look up or share his advanced stats.  I also don't trust defensive stats, in general -- they're drastically skewed by team performance.  Aside from that, my comment was that he commits to defense... not that he's a good defender. 
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #94 on: February 14, 2018, 10:30:36 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Defense has been the bigger problem

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #95 on: February 15, 2018, 03:41:28 AM »

Offline CelticsJG

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Defense will straighten itself out because it have do with people being fatigue.

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #96 on: February 15, 2018, 04:52:54 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Defense will straighten itself out because it have do with people being fatigue.
People will mysteriously become "untired" as they play more games?
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #97 on: February 15, 2018, 06:13:51 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!

How many of those wide open threes are from people who can actually shoot? Kyrie is our only high volume shooter right now, which is a big problem.

So far this season, the Celtics have attempted 927 'wide open' threes (6th most in the NBA).

Those have been distributed as follows:


Player    3PA  3PT%
Horford   138  45.7% *
Rozier    127  33.9%
Brown     118  40.7% *
Smart     100  29.0%
Tatum      96  46.9% *
Irving     80  35.0%
Morris     74  36.5%
Ojeleye    74  29.7%
Theis      43  32.6%
Larkin     28  35.7%
Nader      24  29.2%
Yabusele   11  45.5% *
Baynes      8   0.0%
Allen       3   0.0%
Bird        1   0.0%
Hayward     1   0.0%
Eddie       1   0.0%


The players with an "*" next to them are the only ones who are hitting these shots at league-median or better.

Quote
Another problem with our offense is the regression of Big Al. His play drop significantly from the beginning of the year.

Not sure I concur about Horford.  Looking at his monthly splits, his efficiencies and rates haven't really changed much.  His scoring per game is almost identical each month.  His rebounds and assists per game are just barely slightly down this month, but so are his minutes.  And the assists are dependent on his teammate's shooting, which has sucked lately.
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #98 on: February 15, 2018, 06:25:38 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!

How many of those wide open threes are from people who can actually shoot? Kyrie is our only high volume shooter right now, which is a big problem.

So far this season, the Celtics have attempted 927 'wide open' threes (6th most in the NBA).

Those have been distributed as follows:


Player    3PA  3PT%
Horford   138  45.7% *
Rozier    127  33.9%
Brown     118  40.7% *
Smart     100  29.0%
Tatum      96  46.9% *
Irving     80  35.0%
Morris     74  36.5%
Ojeleye    74  29.7%
Theis      43  32.6%
Larkin     28  35.7%
Nader      24  29.2%
Yabusele   11  45.5% *
Baynes      8   0.0%
Allen       3   0.0%
Bird        1   0.0%
Hayward     1   0.0%
Eddie       1   0.0%


The players with an "*" next to them are the only ones who are hitting these shots at league-median or better.

Quote
Another problem with our offense is the regression of Big Al. His play drop significantly from the beginning of the year.

Not sure I concur about Horford.  Looking at his monthly splits, his efficiencies and rates haven't really changed much.  His scoring per game is almost identical each month.  His rebounds and assists per game are just barely slightly down this month, but so are his minutes.  And the assists are dependent on his teammate's shooting, which has sucked lately.

TP for the vital information. I always am amazed at how much knowledge and stats that you, Saltlover, and a few others bring to this forum.

That being said.... Sigh... We really do need shooters. Hayward alleviates some of those issues, but he isn't able to defy all our problems by himself.
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