Author Topic: Let's discuss our offense  (Read 2382 times)

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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #75 on: February 13, 2018, 02:05:05 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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We need more dribble penetration by players other than kyrie.

Who is going to do that though?

Without Hayward, I'm not sure there's anybody on this roster I trust to aggressively drive on a set defense without a lot of set-play action to create openings (i.e. the dribble handoffs etc that people apparently hate so much).

Guys like Smart, Rozier, Larkin are not talented enough as ballhandlers and finishers to simply break down a set defense out of a pick and roll set and create good offense that way.

Brown and Tatum have both shown flashes and may get there eventually, but they are young and inexperienced.  It would not be a good idea to ask them to "make something happen" in that way.


Without Hayward, I think the two options offensively for this team are "smoke and mirrors," which is what they mostly do now, and "Give Kyrie the ball and let him make something happen," which is a fine strategy for stretches where the rest of the offense is bogging down, but doesn't seem like a good idea to use as the main strategy. 
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #76 on: February 13, 2018, 02:10:45 PM »

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Tightening up the rotation means a bunch more minutes for other guys. Stevens manages his top 7-8 players minutes very closely. Always has. He likes to keep players lower than 32 MPG and use more players. The use of players like Ojeleye, Baynes, Yabusele, Nader is caused by Danny Ainge giving Stevens so many rookies on the roster, not Stevens because he plays them.

As for Monroe, you can acclimate new players only so fast. Monroe looked clueless versus the Cavs. He'll eventually get bunches of minutes, but when he shows he can do it well.
I always thought it was the other way around. Either way, you can keep minutes under 32 for core guys AND maintain a 9-man rotation. Even with Baynes being limited to ~20 mpg, you have at least one guy off the bench right now that can handle 25+. Absolutely no need to ever play Ojeleye, Nader, or Yabusele.

The use of Baynes, btw, is absolutely because he's one of your top 9 guys.
I agree koz but because people were complaining about Baynes I was speculating tightening the lineup to 8 people which means way more minutes for 3-4 guys.

Personally have no problem with Baynes in the rotation or starting. He is what he is. A very good defender who isn't the best rebounder and will give you an inconsistent 6 points or so a game. I am cool with that.

What I am not cool with is giving Semi, Nader, Yabusele, or Larkin minutes. I just do not understand Stevens love of Semi and to a lesser extent Nader and Larkin.

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #77 on: February 13, 2018, 02:17:25 PM »

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We need more dribble penetration by players other than kyrie.

Who is going to do that though?

Without Hayward, I'm not sure there's anybody on this roster I trust to aggressively drive on a set defense without a lot of set-play action to create openings (i.e. the dribble handoffs etc that people apparently hate so much).

Guys like Smart, Rozier, Larkin are not talented enough as ballhandlers and finishers to simply break down a set defense out of a pick and roll set and create good offense that way.

Brown and Tatum have both shown flashes and may get there eventually, but they are young and inexperienced.  It would not be a good idea to ask them to "make something happen" in that way.


Without Hayward, I think the two options offensively for this team are "smoke and mirrors," which is what they mostly do now, and "Give Kyrie the ball and let him make something happen," which is a fine strategy for stretches where the rest of the offense is bogging down, but doesn't seem like a good idea to use as the main strategy.
Yup, Kyrie is the only player that can penetrate a set offense and make a positive play consistently. You're right about Tatum and Brown. They will eventually get there. Right now Tatum has to get to know how to finish better. Brown does too but he is much better at it than Tatum at this point. I am also encouraged by Brown's development of making the good pass off the dribble penetration. He is getting much better at it.

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #78 on: February 13, 2018, 02:37:54 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Tightening up the rotation means a bunch more minutes for other guys. Stevens manages his top 7-8 players minutes very closely. Always has. He likes to keep players lower than 32 MPG and use more players. The use of players like Ojeleye, Baynes, Yabusele, Nader is caused by Danny Ainge giving Stevens so many rookies on the roster, not Stevens because he plays them.

As for Monroe, you can acclimate new players only so fast. Monroe looked clueless versus the Cavs. He'll eventually get bunches of minutes, but when he shows he can do it well.
I always thought it was the other way around. Either way, you can keep minutes under 32 for core guys AND maintain a 9-man rotation. Even with Baynes being limited to ~20 mpg, you have at least one guy off the bench right now that can handle 25+. Absolutely no need to ever play Ojeleye, Nader, or Yabusele.

The use of Baynes, btw, is absolutely because he's one of your top 9 guys.
I agree koz but because people were complaining about Baynes I was speculating tightening the lineup to 8 people which means way more minutes for 3-4 guys.

Personally have no problem with Baynes in the rotation or starting. He is what he is. A very good defender who isn't the best rebounder and will give you an inconsistent 6 points or so a game. I am cool with that.

What I am not cool with is giving Semi, Nader, Yabusele, or Larkin minutes. I just do not understand Stevens love of Semi and to a lesser extent Nader and Larkin.
Right there with you. Those shouldn't sniff the floor unless it's a blowout. Larkin is the only one who seemed to look like he belongs a little bit, but he's been injured for so long that this point is moot by now.

I guess Semi played last game because LeBron played PF and that was our idea of dealing with the situation... I'd have seen the team opt for Brown or even Tatum in that role before leaning on a rookie that looks like he barely belongs in the league.
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #79 on: February 13, 2018, 03:03:04 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Tightening up the rotation means a bunch more minutes for other guys. Stevens manages his top 7-8 players minutes very closely. Always has. He likes to keep players lower than 32 MPG and use more players. The use of players like Ojeleye, Baynes, Yabusele, Nader is caused by Danny Ainge giving Stevens so many rookies on the roster, not Stevens because he plays them.

As for Monroe, you can acclimate new players only so fast. Monroe looked clueless versus the Cavs. He'll eventually get bunches of minutes, but when he shows he can do it well.
I always thought it was the other way around. Either way, you can keep minutes under 32 for core guys AND maintain a 9-man rotation. Even with Baynes being limited to ~20 mpg, you have at least one guy off the bench right now that can handle 25+. Absolutely no need to ever play Ojeleye, Nader, or Yabusele.

The use of Baynes, btw, is absolutely because he's one of your top 9 guys.
I agree koz but because people were complaining about Baynes I was speculating tightening the lineup to 8 people which means way more minutes for 3-4 guys.

Personally have no problem with Baynes in the rotation or starting. He is what he is. A very good defender who isn't the best rebounder and will give you an inconsistent 6 points or so a game. I am cool with that.

What I am not cool with is giving Semi, Nader, Yabusele, or Larkin minutes. I just do not understand Stevens love of Semi and to a lesser extent Nader and Larkin.


I think Brad likes Semi because he's a cog in the machine.

What I mean by that is, you can plug Semi into the 3/4 spot and his skillset and physical attributes are such that the team doesn't need to change at all the way they run sets.

Compare this to Greg Monroe, who really changes things with his size and offensive skills, for good and for ill.  He needs to be accommodated.

Semi doesn't need to be accommodated.  Now, he doesn't function particularly well, is the problem.  He can switch and he can be in the right spot to take an open three and he can attempt the open three.  He moves the ball and puts himself in the right places.

He just doesn't necessarily produce very well when doing so. 

But he doesn't gum up the works, and there is value in that.  Plus, he shoots nearly 30% from deep and in some games he hits several in a row.  So as long as he's not playing a ton of minutes, that's not so bad.  The problem is when we have games where he plays more than 10-15 minutes.
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #80 on: February 13, 2018, 03:32:11 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Semi plays because he's committing to defense, while most of the team is not.  Of late, they've made a mockery of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MORBtzEOvQ

For example, when George Hill and LBJ were having their way in the PnR during the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game, adjustments needed to be made -- see Semi's substitution and subsequent defensive switches (Osman).

People seem to give Brad too much credit for the amount of control he has over the team in mid- February.  When your defense is struggling, playing guys that commit on that end is a way -- sometimes the only way -- to get buy-in.  It's that simple. 
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #81 on: February 13, 2018, 04:33:34 PM »

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Semi plays because he's committing to defense, while most of the team is not.  Of late, they've made a mockery of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MORBtzEOvQ

For example, when George Hill and LBJ were having their way in the PnR during the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game, adjustments needed to be made -- see Semi's substitution and subsequent defensive switches (Osman).

People seem to give Brad too much credit for the amount of control he has over the team in mid- February.  When your defense is struggling, playing guys that commit on that end is a way -- sometimes the only way -- to get buy-in.  It's that simple.
I would love to see the advanced defensive stats for Semi. What do opponents shoot against him? The percentages on how good is he defending the pick and roll. How good do people he is guarding shoot the three? What do people shoot against him when he defends in the paint?

Maybe having those stats would enlighten us on why Stevens uses Semi so much.

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #82 on: February 13, 2018, 04:51:59 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Semi plays because he's committing to defense, while most of the team is not.  Of late, they've made a mockery of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MORBtzEOvQ

For example, when George Hill and LBJ were having their way in the PnR during the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game, adjustments needed to be made -- see Semi's substitution and subsequent defensive switches (Osman).

People seem to give Brad too much credit for the amount of control he has over the team in mid- February.  When your defense is struggling, playing guys that commit on that end is a way -- sometimes the only way -- to get buy-in.  It's that simple.
I would love to see the advanced defensive stats for Semi. What do opponents shoot against him? The percentages on how good is he defending the pick and roll. How good do people he is guarding shoot the three? What do people shoot against him when he defends in the paint?

Maybe having those stats would enlighten us on why Stevens uses Semi so much.


Defensive RPM, for what it's worth, has Semi with a -0.56 DRPM, which sounds bad except his ORPM is -3.77.  So that suggests his defensive impact is at least less bad than his offensive impact.  For a bench guy I think close to 0 in DRPM is actually decent.

Basketball-reference's box score plus minus stat has him at 0.0 for DPM, while his OPM is -3.8.  So that suggests the same thing.

I know box score based plus minus stats are inherently questionable; it's not as good as specific matchup shooting stats and the like.  But it's consistent with what I would have assumed to be the case, i.e. he helps on defense but the team is significantly worse on offense when he's out there, for various reasons.
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #83 on: February 13, 2018, 05:22:57 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Semi plays because he's committing to defense, while most of the team is not.  Of late, they've made a mockery of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MORBtzEOvQ

For example, when George Hill and LBJ were having their way in the PnR during the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game, adjustments needed to be made -- see Semi's substitution and subsequent defensive switches (Osman).

People seem to give Brad too much credit for the amount of control he has over the team in mid- February.  When your defense is struggling, playing guys that commit on that end is a way -- sometimes the only way -- to get buy-in.  It's that simple.
I would love to see the advanced defensive stats for Semi. What do opponents shoot against him? The percentages on how good is he defending the pick and roll. How good do people he is guarding shoot the three? What do people shoot against him when he defends in the paint?

Maybe having those stats would enlighten us on why Stevens uses Semi so much.
Per NBA.com/stats:

On shots overall, opponents are shooting 44.1% DFG% when contested by Semi.  This is -1.7% below their normal FG%.
That DFG% is about the median among Celtics players, but doesn't tell you much because it doesn't break-down by shot type.
On 3PT shots, for the season, opponents are shooting 35.7% against Semi, which is -0.8% below their normal 3PT%.
On 2PT shots, for the season, opponents are shooting 48.5% against Semi, which is -2.8% below their normal 2PT%.

Unfortunately, in this particular game, Semi's opponents kinda shot the lights out, hitting 4 of 4 on threes and 7 of 9 overall against him.

But the Cavs were basically just plain red-hot and hitting all kinds of shots, including ones that were tightly or even very tightly covered.   

I wouldn't read too much into this one game for either team.

The combination of our really bad shooting (despite generating a _ton_ of open & wide-open looks) and their really hot shooting (despite not really having near as many open & wide open looks) kinda hides the fact that they (Cavs) still may have some serious defensive problems.   And our poor shooting on open & wide-open shots isn't necessarily anything to do with their defensive prowess.
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #84 on: February 13, 2018, 05:40:33 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!
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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #85 on: February 13, 2018, 06:24:21 PM »

Offline JHTruth

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!

Seems the numbers bear out what the intuitive feel is, that we don't go inside or attack the rim NEAR enough, Baynes is a terrible finisher, and we lack the shooting ability to be firing so many threes, even when wide open. Smart stinks..

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #86 on: February 13, 2018, 06:39:06 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!

Seems the numbers bear out what the intuitive feel is, that we don't go inside or attack the rim NEAR enough, Baynes is a terrible finisher, and we lack the shooting ability to be firing so many threes, even when wide open. Smart stinks..

Baynes has definitely declined in his efficiency at the rim, especially compared to how he started the season and to his career numbers. 

But I think it's important to avoid wasting time pointing the blame finger at him.  Despite starting, he doesn't really get a ton of minutes and he certainly doesn't get a ton of shot attempts.  His numbers aren't really enough to account for just how poorly the team as a whole is doing at getting and finishing shots near the rim.



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Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #87 on: February 13, 2018, 06:51:46 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I suggest we trade off the LOW IQ Rozier to start . 

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #88 on: February 14, 2018, 05:57:58 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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On our offense:

One thing that really jumps out to me is that we are doing a very poor job on two particular shot types that it is very important to be successful at:   Shots 'at the rim' (i.e., within 3ft of the hoop) and 'wide open threes'.  Wide-open shots are shots with no defender within 6 feet.

Those are normally the two most efficient shot types and you want to get as many of each as you can and convert them when you can.

We do a poor job of getting to the rim.  We are are ranked 25th in share of our shots that are within 3 ft of the rim.   Further, we do a terrible job of finishing those shots, ranking 26th in FG% on shots within 3ft.

We actually do a great job at generating "wide open threes".  We have generated the 4th most 'wide open' 3PT attempts in the NBA.

Unfortunately, we pretty much suck at hitting wide open threes.   We are ranked 27th in 3PT% on wide-open threes, hitting them at just a 36.7% clip.

League median on wide-open threes is about 40%.   So that is a pretty significant under-performance and, ultimately, a lot of wasted possessions.

It's a very strange thing on this team.   The vast majority of players around the league tend to shoot much better on wide-open threes.  But on our team, we have only 4 players who shoot above even 36.1% on wide-open threes (Jayson, Yabusele, Horford & Jaylen).   Those 4 guys are all shooting 40% and higher on wide-open threes.   

Everybody else on the roster just sucks on wide-open threes.  I don't know why.   Stage fright? 

Even Kyrie, who in prior seasons shot very well on wide-open, is shooting a miserable 34.1% on such shots.

I probably don't have to mention how bad Marcus Smart is on such shots - but it bears noting because not only is he horrific (28.7%) on such shots, he takes a ton of them (101 of his 211 threes on the season have been with no defender within 6 ft).

Maybe Brad needs to bring in a sports psychologist or something.  Or have guys practice shooting in an empty freaking gym!

And sheesh!  We have to do something to get plays going to the darn rim more often!!!


How many of those wide open threes are pull-ups as opposed to spot-up threes? 
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Let's discuss our offense
« Reply #89 on: February 14, 2018, 06:19:09 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Semi plays because he's committing to defense, while most of the team is not.  Of late, they've made a mockery of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MORBtzEOvQ

For example, when George Hill and LBJ were having their way in the PnR during the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game, adjustments needed to be made -- see Semi's substitution and subsequent defensive switches (Osman).

People seem to give Brad too much credit for the amount of control he has over the team in mid- February.  When your defense is struggling, playing guys that commit on that end is a way -- sometimes the only way -- to get buy-in.  It's that simple.
I would love to see the advanced defensive stats for Semi. What do opponents shoot against him? The percentages on how good is he defending the pick and roll. How good do people he is guarding shoot the three? What do people shoot against him when he defends in the paint?

Maybe having those stats would enlighten us on why Stevens uses Semi so much.

He uses him because he can switch on everyone.  That is what Stevens values more than anything, including putting the ball in the basket.