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Road map to the Celtics offseason

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CFAN38:
Now that the deadline has passed the Cs roster will be pretty much set in stone. The only exception is the possibility of Nader being waived in order for the team to pick up a veteran buyout candidate to give the team an additional shooter. Joe Johnson being the player most often rumored.

I am in no way a cap expert and I could off but I think the following basic off-season plan works

Cs pick up options on everyone and retain Smart for the rumored 8mill that the market will dictate the total salaries would be roughly 115.5 mill for 12 players roughly 8mill short of the luxury cap. This figures on the Cs keeping Nader. 

Sign the Cs 1st round pick for roughly 1.5mill.
That leaves the Cs with 13 players and 6.5mill.

If Monroe or Baynes excepts the 6.5mill the Cs can offer then that fills out the 14th roster spot.

So basically


Smart at 8mill would leave the Cs with 6.5 to spend on a big likely Monroe or Baynes
Larkins roster spot is filled by the first round pick


What I think is more likely to happen is this...

The wild cards will be Morris (going into a contract year) and Yabu.

If the Cs do not think Morris fits into this roster with the return of Hayward or that Yabu isn't developing they way they want I expect them to look to move both players.

I would think that they would be moved for a combo of cheap cost controlled players and/or second round picks.

Shedding that 7mill would shift additional additional money that can be paid to Monroe or Baynes using the MLE. It would also allow the team to use the BLE to fill an additional roster spot.

So

1.   Irving
2.   Brown
3.   Hayward
4.   Tatum
5.   Horford
6.   MLE (8.5mill) Monroe or Baynes
7.   Smart (8mill)
8.   Rozier
9.   Semi
10.   Nader
11. Theis
12. 2018 1st (1.4mill)
13. Bi-annual exception (3.3mill)
14. vet min two years of service (1.5mill)
15. Allen or Bird on a Nader like Contract? (1.3mill)
 

Total 123.52 million

Luxury Tax 123

This 15 man roster gets the Cs just above the Tax line. Tightening up the math, cutting a little from the MLE and/or BAE, or not signing a 15th man (allen/Bird) should get the Cs right under the line.

Next season the Cs will be banking on Semi and Theis to give solid every night rotational minutes.

The pressure will be on DA with the help of Irving to recruit rotational level talent to play for only the BAE. I would expect them to target a bigger 3/4 wing. Maybe Ilyasova, Babbit, Acy, or our old friend Jeff Green

 The Cs 2018 1st would be a home run if that player can contribute as a rookie. This makes it likely that the Cs will look for an NBA ready player with that pick Grayson Allen, Bates-Diop, or Allonzo Tier are names that come to mind.

In an effort to get an NBA ready player for the 13th spot I wouldn't be surprised to see the Celtics sign another Eur0 league player like they did with Theis. This allows them to get an older rookie who is likely more game ready at a cheaper salary. 

timpiker:
If we can get Smart for $8M and keep him - I'm a very happy camper.

iadera:
Lately, I'm starting to think there should be no hesitation by Ainge to include any player (except Kyrie) in possible AD-offer, even Tatum. We're still just not strong enough to be contenders.

Csfan1984:
I wonder if Smart just plays under the option and banks on having a better year before UFA.

I don't feel Baynes or Monroe will be back. Both will cash in as FAs.

CFAN38:

--- Quote from: Csfan1984 on February 12, 2018, 01:47:18 AM ---I wonder if Smart just plays under the option and banks on having a better year before UFA.

I don't feel Baynes or Monroe will be back. Both will cash in as FAs.

--- End quote ---

I can see Smart getting p---ed and taking the 6 mill qualifying offer this summer. It maybe the best off season situation for the Cs. The money saved on Smart would allow them to bring in a veteran min free agent with additional years of experience. It would also give the Cs a super motivated Marcus Smart for the season and give DA a chance to see if Rozier and Semi can both develop enough to fill Smart's roster roles.

As for Baynes and Monroe, earlier in the season I would have 100% agreed that the Cs wouldn't be able to retain either. However this off-season isn't projected to have a lot of money available to FAs. There is a solid group of starting caliber traditional big men who will be free agents (B Lopez,Capela, Monroe, Baynes, Nurkic, Noel, Len, Okafor,Mejri) and I do not think the market is going to dictate much more then MLE for many of them. Given the option to sign for a little more money I would suspect that Baynes would rather stay with the celtics.     

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