Author Topic: Road map to the Celtics offseason  (Read 1687 times)

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Road map to the Celtics offseason
« on: February 09, 2018, 10:28:14 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Now that the deadline has passed the Cs roster will be pretty much set in stone. The only exception is the possibility of Nader being waived in order for the team to pick up a veteran buyout candidate to give the team an additional shooter. Joe Johnson being the player most often rumored.

I am in no way a cap expert and I could off but I think the following basic off-season plan works

Cs pick up options on everyone and retain Smart for the rumored 8mill that the market will dictate the total salaries would be roughly 115.5 mill for 12 players roughly 8mill short of the luxury cap. This figures on the Cs keeping Nader. 

Sign the Cs 1st round pick for roughly 1.5mill.
That leaves the Cs with 13 players and 6.5mill.

If Monroe or Baynes excepts the 6.5mill the Cs can offer then that fills out the 14th roster spot.

So basically


Smart at 8mill would leave the Cs with 6.5 to spend on a big likely Monroe or Baynes
Larkins roster spot is filled by the first round pick


What I think is more likely to happen is this...

The wild cards will be Morris (going into a contract year) and Yabu.

If the Cs do not think Morris fits into this roster with the return of Hayward or that Yabu isn't developing they way they want I expect them to look to move both players.

I would think that they would be moved for a combo of cheap cost controlled players and/or second round picks.

Shedding that 7mill would shift additional additional money that can be paid to Monroe or Baynes using the MLE. It would also allow the team to use the BLE to fill an additional roster spot.

So

1.   Irving
2.   Brown
3.   Hayward
4.   Tatum
5.   Horford
6.   MLE (8.5mill) Monroe or Baynes
7.   Smart (8mill)
8.   Rozier
9.   Semi
10.   Nader
11. Theis
12. 2018 1st (1.4mill)
13. Bi-annual exception (3.3mill)
14. vet min two years of service (1.5mill)
15. Allen or Bird on a Nader like Contract? (1.3mill)
 

Total 123.52 million


Luxury Tax 123

This 15 man roster gets the Cs just above the Tax line. Tightening up the math, cutting a little from the MLE and/or BAE, or not signing a 15th man (allen/Bird) should get the Cs right under the line.

Next season the Cs will be banking on Semi and Theis to give solid every night rotational minutes.

The pressure will be on DA with the help of Irving to recruit rotational level talent to play for only the BAE. I would expect them to target a bigger 3/4 wing. Maybe Ilyasova, Babbit, Acy, or our old friend Jeff Green

 The Cs 2018 1st would be a home run if that player can contribute as a rookie. This makes it likely that the Cs will look for an NBA ready player with that pick Grayson Allen, Bates-Diop, or Allonzo Tier are names that come to mind.

In an effort to get an NBA ready player for the 13th spot I wouldn't be surprised to see the Celtics sign another Eur0 league player like they did with Theis. This allows them to get an older rookie who is likely more game ready at a cheaper salary. 
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 10:33:25 AM by CFAN38 »

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2018, 04:27:13 PM »

Offline timpiker

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If we can get Smart for $8M and keep him - I'm a very happy camper.

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2018, 01:25:54 AM »

Offline iadera

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Lately, I'm starting to think there should be no hesitation by Ainge to include any player (except Kyrie) in possible AD-offer, even Tatum. We're still just not strong enough to be contenders.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 01:54:54 AM by iadera »

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2018, 01:47:18 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I wonder if Smart just plays under the option and banks on having a better year before UFA.

I don't feel Baynes or Monroe will be back. Both will cash in as FAs.
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Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2018, 09:17:26 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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I wonder if Smart just plays under the option and banks on having a better year before UFA.

I don't feel Baynes or Monroe will be back. Both will cash in as FAs.

I can see Smart getting p---ed and taking the 6 mill qualifying offer this summer. It maybe the best off season situation for the Cs. The money saved on Smart would allow them to bring in a veteran min free agent with additional years of experience. It would also give the Cs a super motivated Marcus Smart for the season and give DA a chance to see if Rozier and Semi can both develop enough to fill Smart's roster roles.

As for Baynes and Monroe, earlier in the season I would have 100% agreed that the Cs wouldn't be able to retain either. However this off-season isn't projected to have a lot of money available to FAs. There is a solid group of starting caliber traditional big men who will be free agents (B Lopez,Capela, Monroe, Baynes, Nurkic, Noel, Len, Okafor,Mejri) and I do not think the market is going to dictate much more then MLE for many of them. Given the option to sign for a little more money I would suspect that Baynes would rather stay with the celtics.     

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2018, 10:21:38 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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revisiting this

as I said before the luxury tax cap is projected to be 123 mill this is going to largely dictate what the Cs do this offseason

If the Cs pick up ever player option except for Gibson's 1.7mill they have the following roster. (this also includes the $92,857 stretched to pay off Demetrius Jackson)

Hayward
Horford
Irving
Tatum
Morris
Brown
Yabu
Rozier
Semi
Nader
Theis

at a total salary of roughly $107,434,000 for 11 players

they may be best served not picking up Naders $1.37mill

at a total salary of roughly $106,064,000 for 10 players

bring Smart back at 9mill

at a total salary of roughly $116,434,000 for 11 players

sign #27 pick  for 1.367 mill

at a total salary of roughly $117,801,000 for 12 players

sign Bird or Allen for .905 mill

at a total salary of roughly $118,706 for 13 players

If I did this out correctly that will leave the Cs with a little over 5mill to sign a Center. Either Baynes or his replacement. I am not sure how much the 2-way deals count against the cap but these may also be in jeopardy for next season.

Some options to gain flexibility could be

trading Rozier for a late lottery pick (as has been discussed) a theoretical trade for the 12th pick and a future 2nd (saves the Cs just under 1 mill)

a much less popular option could be trading Rozier for a future 1st and a cheap PG. Example to NY for Burke and a future 1st (save 1.26mill), to Suns for Ulis and future 1st (save 1.5mill), 

moving Morris and his great value 5.3 mill per for a cheaper player and a future asset. Maybe for a Jerebko return and a future 2nd ( save .8mill) not a fan of this idea

moving Yabu for a future pick (save his 2.66 mill but also have to fill roster spot) not a fan of giving up on Yabu yet

Aside from moving Rozier before he is due a large pay the the rest of the above deal make little sense for the Cs.

If Rozier is moved for a pick in this draft the Cs would then be looking to use around 6mill, 7.5 if they move him for a future pick of the mid level exception to resign Baynes or another center. The market may actually be weak enough that Baynes returns (given the likely future match-ups with 76eres I hope this happens). Other players who may find a limited market are old friend A Johnson, Salah Mejri, Z Pachulia, J McGee, A Len (might get better offer), K O'quinn ( should get better offer). 


If the Cs go with the Rozier for a late lottery pick trade and are then able to sign Baynes for 6milll this would be the 2018-19 Celtics

Starters
Irving
Brown
Tatum
Hayward
Horford

Bench
Smart
Morris
Baynes
Semi
Theis
Yabu
lottery pick
Bird
#27 pick 

looking at this roster the glaring weakness is the PG depth. If the theoretical Rozier trade lands the Cs the 12th pick it is likely a stretch to draft a PG at this spot. The more likely targets would be a falling big Carter or Bamba, a big projected in that range Williams or Porter, or a BPA wing Zhaire Smith, Knox, or one of the Bridges if they fall. #27 might be a spot to find a PG. While players like Troy Brown (likely off the board) Okogie (my favorite no lottery player, or Alkins may be more likely DA picks some solid PGs should be available. First I will say that De'Anthony Melton is a perfect bridge between need and style fit but I question if he could really contribute next season. For guys who can contribute right away. S Ponds from St John is a great P&R point, Aaron Holiday is a lights out shooter, Jevon Carter, is a pit bull defender who may struggle to translate his offense to the NBADevonte' Graham is a great shooting well rounded player but already 23. 


Projecting with Draft picks

Starters
Irving
Brown
Tatum
Hayward
Horford

Bench
Smart
Morris
Baynes
Semi
Theis
Yabu
Jontay Porter/Robert Williams (lotto pick)
Bird
Ponds/Holiday (#27)     


Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2018, 10:51:25 AM »

Offline jambr380

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TP for the breakdown CFAN. The Smart situation will be really interesting as I believe the Cs will match anything below $9M. If some other team decides that he is their combo guard of the future, then will need to move on using the MLE on a player like Evans or Bradley (hopeful, I know, but those guys, especially Bradley, may want to compete for a championship in Boston).

I am somewhat confident that we will be able to keep Baynes around in the $5M range. If we use the MLE on somebody else, we really won't have a choice.

We absolutely have to dump Nader, hang on to Bird, and only deal Rozier if it is a homerun deal.

I agree that Ainge will make it a priority remaining below the luxury tax threshold. We are going to be riding 4 potential max contracts down the road (luckily two of them in Brown and Tatum will be on the lower end because of experience) and we need to stay out of the repeater tax as long as possible. If we go over, it's because we go way over.

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2018, 11:57:12 AM »

Offline seancally

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If a potential Rozier deal gets us a shot at Wendell Carter or Mo Bamba, sign me up. Love what Rozier's become and would be happy to keep him, but would also be nice to line up a big for the post-Horford future. I don't think Bamba will slide down far enough, but Carter might.
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Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2018, 02:45:12 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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Now that the deadline has passed the Cs roster will be pretty much set in stone. The only exception is the possibility of Nader being waived in order for the team to pick up a veteran buyout candidate to give the team an additional shooter. Joe Johnson being the player most often rumored.

I am in no way a cap expert and I could off but I think the following basic off-season plan works

Cs pick up options on everyone and retain Smart for the rumored 8mill that the market will dictate the total salaries would be roughly 115.5 mill for 12 players roughly 8mill short of the luxury cap. This figures on the Cs keeping Nader. 

Sign the Cs 1st round pick for roughly 1.5mill.
That leaves the Cs with 13 players and 6.5mill.

If Monroe or Baynes excepts the 6.5mill the Cs can offer then that fills out the 14th roster spot.

So basically


Smart at 8mill would leave the Cs with 6.5 to spend on a big likely Monroe or Baynes
Larkins roster spot is filled by the first round pick


What I think is more likely to happen is this...

The wild cards will be Morris (going into a contract year) and Yabu.

If the Cs do not think Morris fits into this roster with the return of Hayward or that Yabu isn't developing they way they want I expect them to look to move both players.

I would think that they would be moved for a combo of cheap cost controlled players and/or second round picks.

Shedding that 7mill would shift additional additional money that can be paid to Monroe or Baynes using the MLE. It would also allow the team to use the BLE to fill an additional roster spot.

So

1.   Irving
2.   Brown
3.   Hayward
4.   Tatum
5.   Horford
6.   MLE (8.5mill) Monroe or Baynes
7.   Smart (8mill)
8.   Rozier
9.   Semi
10.   Nader
11. Theis
12. 2018 1st (1.4mill)
13. Bi-annual exception (3.3mill)
14. vet min two years of service (1.5mill)
15. Allen or Bird on a Nader like Contract? (1.3mill)
 

Total 123.52 million


Luxury Tax 123

This 15 man roster gets the Cs just above the Tax line. Tightening up the math, cutting a little from the MLE and/or BAE, or not signing a 15th man (allen/Bird) should get the Cs right under the line.

Next season the Cs will be banking on Semi and Theis to give solid every night rotational minutes.

The pressure will be on DA with the help of Irving to recruit rotational level talent to play for only the BAE. I would expect them to target a bigger 3/4 wing. Maybe Ilyasova, Babbit, Acy, or our old friend Jeff Green

 The Cs 2018 1st would be a home run if that player can contribute as a rookie. This makes it likely that the Cs will look for an NBA ready player with that pick Grayson Allen, Bates-Diop, or Allonzo Tier are names that come to mind.

In an effort to get an NBA ready player for the 13th spot I wouldn't be surprised to see the Celtics sign another Eur0 league player like they did with Theis. This allows them to get an older rookie who is likely more game ready at a cheaper salary.
You are forgetting Yabu's $2,667,600
Here are next year's salary's link
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly/cap/
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Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2018, 02:53:41 PM »

Offline liam

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That #2 pick we are getting this year will kill the cap.

6-7 million?

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2018, 06:28:20 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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Now that the deadline has passed the Cs roster will be pretty much set in stone. The only exception is the possibility of Nader being waived in order for the team to pick up a veteran buyout candidate to give the team an additional shooter. Joe Johnson being the player most often rumored.

I am in no way a cap expert and I could off but I think the following basic off-season plan works

Cs pick up options on everyone and retain Smart for the rumored 8mill that the market will dictate the total salaries would be roughly 115.5 mill for 12 players roughly 8mill short of the luxury cap. This figures on the Cs keeping Nader. 

Sign the Cs 1st round pick for roughly 1.5mill.
That leaves the Cs with 13 players and 6.5mill.

If Monroe or Baynes excepts the 6.5mill the Cs can offer then that fills out the 14th roster spot.

So basically


Smart at 8mill would leave the Cs with 6.5 to spend on a big likely Monroe or Baynes
Larkins roster spot is filled by the first round pick


What I think is more likely to happen is this...

The wild cards will be Morris (going into a contract year) and Yabu.

If the Cs do not think Morris fits into this roster with the return of Hayward or that Yabu isn't developing they way they want I expect them to look to move both players.

I would think that they would be moved for a combo of cheap cost controlled players and/or second round picks.

Shedding that 7mill would shift additional additional money that can be paid to Monroe or Baynes using the MLE. It would also allow the team to use the BLE to fill an additional roster spot.

So

1.   Irving
2.   Brown
3.   Hayward
4.   Tatum
5.   Horford
6.   MLE (8.5mill) Monroe or Baynes
7.   Smart (8mill)
8.   Rozier
9.   Semi
10.   Nader
11. Theis
12. 2018 1st (1.4mill)
13. Bi-annual exception (3.3mill)
14. vet min two years of service (1.5mill)
15. Allen or Bird on a Nader like Contract? (1.3mill)
 

Total 123.52 million


Luxury Tax 123

This 15 man roster gets the Cs just above the Tax line. Tightening up the math, cutting a little from the MLE and/or BAE, or not signing a 15th man (allen/Bird) should get the Cs right under the line.

Next season the Cs will be banking on Semi and Theis to give solid every night rotational minutes.

The pressure will be on DA with the help of Irving to recruit rotational level talent to play for only the BAE. I would expect them to target a bigger 3/4 wing. Maybe Ilyasova, Babbit, Acy, or our old friend Jeff Green

 The Cs 2018 1st would be a home run if that player can contribute as a rookie. This makes it likely that the Cs will look for an NBA ready player with that pick Grayson Allen, Bates-Diop, or Allonzo Tier are names that come to mind.

In an effort to get an NBA ready player for the 13th spot I wouldn't be surprised to see the Celtics sign another Eur0 league player like they did with Theis. This allows them to get an older rookie who is likely more game ready at a cheaper salary.
You are forgetting Yabu's $2,667,600
Here are next year's salary's link
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly/cap/

That was my break down from earlier in the season where I proposed the Cs move Yabu and Morris to clear space. I no longer think thatís a a good idea

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2018, 06:34:06 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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TP for the breakdown CFAN. The Smart situation will be really interesting as I believe the Cs will match anything below $9M. If some other team decides that he is their combo guard of the future, then will need to move on using the MLE on a player like Evans or Bradley (hopeful, I know, but those guys, especially Bradley, may want to compete for a championship in Boston).

I am somewhat confident that we will be able to keep Baynes around in the $5M range. If we use the MLE on somebody else, we really won't have a choice.

We absolutely have to dump Nader, hang on to Bird, and only deal Rozier if it is a homerun deal.

I agree that Ainge will make it a priority remaining below the luxury tax threshold. We are going to be riding 4 potential max contracts down the road (luckily two of them in Brown and Tatum will be on the lower end because of experience) and we need to stay out of the repeater tax as long as possible. If we go over, it's because we go way over.

Great point the MLE will be the Cs safety net if Smart gets a deal that the Cs canít match. Players like Ariza, Mathews, Evans ( a long time DA favorite) or maybe Will Barton are all players who may have to settle for the MLE. That would force the Cs to sign a big for the 3.3 bi annual exception

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2018, 04:01:35 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I think Baynes has played his way into a bigger contract that we can realistically afford. I'd love to keep him though.

I think the number that we sign Smart for will be telling. Anything over £12m and there's a good chance he gets used as a trade piece mid season. We don't have to make a decision between him and Rozier in the offseason, if at all.

I think we'll see a consolidation at the back end of the roster. Players like Larkin and Nader can be duplicated. Players like Yab will either begin to take the place of a guy like Morris or be moved for a younger guy.

It's likely we'll be in the tax for most of the season before dipping under at the deadline.

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2018, 04:13:54 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I think the likeliest situation is the following:
- sign late first rounder
- jettison Nader
- resign Smart --> the more I look at who might want him, not seeing anyone who could or would offer more than the MLE for him.  Probably resigns at 9-10 mill per.
- resign Baynes for MLE.  If he somehow gets a larger offer, will probably use MLE on Monroe or even possibly part of it for Noel.
- Larkin is likely gone for hopefully a better vet min guy.
- Rozier is kept to provide an awesome backup guard combo with Smart to Kyrie/Brown.
- Bird quite possibly gets a real contract instead of a 2-way.

essentially swap the first rounder for Nader on the roster and vet min PG for Larkin.  Possibly swap Bird for Monroe but I could see Danny trying to get another cheap big man for a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation.

I just don't see any major deals being made that shake up the roster in light of what we've accomplished so far without Kyrie, Hayward and Theis this postseason.  Not that Danny is one to stand pat but I think this offseason is going to be pretty quiet for this team

Re: Road map to the Celtics offseason
« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2018, 04:27:21 PM »

Offline bdm860

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CFAN38, I think you're off on your salary for the #27 pick.  You should take 120% of the slotted salary, as that's what they sign for and that's what their cap hold is.  Only a difference of a few hundred thousand, but every little bit counts if the C's are trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold.

Personally, I think the C's would be better off with either a draft-and-stash or trying to move that pick back for a 2nd to sign someone to the rookie minimum (which would save about $800k).


Also, if I'm reading the CBA FAQ right, I don't think Bird or Allen could be signed for .905 mill, they'd have to be signed for the 1 year vet minimum, which will be this season's $1,312,611 + whatever % the cap increases for next year.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2018, 04:49:18 PM by bdm860 »

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