Windhorst: Smart could struggle to field offers above MLE

[Eddie20]

Turner, who had the fortune of being an unrestricted free agent that summer, got a $17.5 million per season deal from the Blazers. This summer, Smart, who will be a restricted free agent, might face an environment in which role players could struggle to field outside offers above the $8.8 million midlevel exception, according to multiple league executives.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22263630/nba-financial-crunch-coming


That's a portion of a pretty good article.

[droopdog7]

I mean, this sounds right but all it takes is one team.

[Rhyso]

Unless he gets traded to a non playoff team, he will show his value on our hopefully deep run. I think he still gets at least 10-12million.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Windhorst could struggle to find his fly.

[CFAN38]

This will be very interesting to see play out.

I cant help but wonder if the recent Smart available for a 1st rumor isn't a tactical leak from the Celtics. It puts Smart on notice that his behavior will not be tolerated and also puts teams on notice that the Cs are not happy with his behavior.

If i'm the GM/owner of a team with I would be worried to offer a large long term deal to a guard who struggles shooting the ball to begin with. Add to that off the court / in the locker room issues and I would stay away.

I could see this ending with Smart not getting an offer over the 8.8 MLE and just taking the gamble and excepting his qualifying 6mill to become an URFA the following off-season.

I am in no way a cap expert or even and I could be way off but I think the following would work

Cs pick up options on everyone and retain Smart for the Qualifying offer that puts the salary total at roughly 113.5 mill for 12 players roughly 10mill short of the luxury cap. Sign the Cs 1st round pick for roughly 1.5mill. That leaves the Cs with 13 players and 8.5mill. That 8.5 would almost be the full non tax payer MLE. If Monroe excepts the 6mill the Cs can offer then they can use a smaller exception on the 15th roster spot. More then likely Monroe, Baynes or another Big will be offered the MLE to fill the big man void in the roster as the 14th roster spot.

So basically

Smart at 6mill qualifying offer means the Cs have 8.5mill to spend on a big

Smart at 9mill would leave the Cs with 5.5 to spend on a big

* with all this I am not sure if the 15th roster spot comes with a cap hold I believe only the first 12 carry a hold

* also doesn't account for the Cs trying to retain K Allen or J Bird

   

 

[tonydelk]

I think with the emergence of Rozier Smart will be expendable.  You need guys that can score.  Marcus, no matter how much work he puts in, just can't shoot.  I love his energy and defense but he is such a liability on offense he hurts the team.  If he signs for 5-7 a year then the C's will resign him.  If he gets an offer of 9-11 a year he's gone. 

[Valid]

I think with the emergence of Rozier Smart will be expendable.  You need guys that can score.  Marcus, no matter how much work he puts in, just can't shoot.  I love his energy and defense but he is such a liability on offense he hurts the team.  If he signs for 5-7 a year then the C's will resign him.  If he gets an offer of 9-11 a year he's gone.

Smart is a better offensive player than Rozier.

Why do some people act like shooting is the be-all-end-all to offense?

Rozier is unquestionably a better shooter than Smart, but Smart is a better passer and playmaker, not to mention that he makes better decisions than Rozier.

Plus, just look at the numbers: the offense functions much better with Smart than Rozier. Going into the game yesterday, Smart had a minus-0.9 offensive net rating. That difference is negligible, meaning our offense is virtually just as effective with or without Smart. Rozier, on the other hand, had a minus-6.8 offensive net rating.

Again, Rozier can shoot the ball better than Smart, but it's not exactly like he's Stephen Curry out there. He's not very efficient, and he's not good enough of a shooter where you can just gloss over the other aspects where Smart is superior.

I LOVE Rozier, but Smart is the better player on both ends of the floor. If we can somehow keep Smart for MLE type money (and I highly doubt that will be the case), we would be out of our [dang] minds not to retain him.

[kozlodoev]

I think with the emergence of Rozier Smart will be expendable.  You need guys that can score.  Marcus, no matter how much work he puts in, just can't shoot.  I love his energy and defense but he is such a liability on offense he hurts the team.  If he signs for 5-7 a year then the C's will resign him.  If he gets an offer of 9-11 a year he's gone.

Smart is a better offensive player than Rozier.

Why do some people act like shooting is the be-all-end-all to offense?

Rozier is unquestionably a better shooter than Smart, but Smart is a better passer and playmaker, not to mention that he makes better decisions than Rozier.

Plus, just look at the numbers: the offense functions much better with Smart than Rozier. Going into the game yesterday, Smart had a minus-0.9 offensive net rating. That difference is negligible, meaning our offense is virtually just as effective with or without Smart. Rozier, on the other hand, had a minus-6.8 offensive net rating.

Again, Rozier can shoot the ball better than Smart, but it's not exactly like he's Stephen Curry out there. He's not very efficient, and he's not good enough of a shooter where you can just gloss over the other aspects where Smart is superior.

I LOVE Rozier, but Smart is the better player on both ends of the floor. If we can somehow keep Smart for MLE type money (and I highly doubt that will be the case), we would be out of our [dang] minds not to retain him.

Sorry, not looking forward to getting Smart back to stifle offensive momentum. Maybe in some alternate reality Smart is the better player, but putting Rozier in his spot has largely been a wash in terms of results for his team, so I'd rather that I don't have to yell at my TV when Smart unapologetically chucks threes with 20 seconds left on the clock.

[Big333223]

I hope someone shows this to Smart so he understands the reality of his situation and doesn't come in demanding $15-20 mil a year. If the Celtics offer $40-48 mil for 4 years, take it and call it a day.

I really love what Smart brings to the team and want him to come back but not for more than he's actually worth and anything more than that, given the circumstances, I think would be an overpay.

[kozlodoev]

I hope someone shows this to Smart so he understands the reality of his situation and doesn't come in demanding $15-20 mil a year. If the Celtics offer $40-48 mil for 4 years, take it and call it a day.

I really love what Smart brings to the team and want him to come back but not for more than he's actually worth and anything more than that, given the circumstances, I think would be an overpay.

If we can get and retain Evans and/or Monroe, I'm prepared to let Smart go.

[Emmette Bryant]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/2/5/16972634/trouble-nba-max-contracts

[Phantom255x]

I hope we keep Smart at 4/40M.

The ABSOLUTE MAX I'd go for Smart is 4/52M, but only if other teams get pesky and offer Smart in that range, in which case I'd be happy to match. (It's similar to Olynyk's deal, and as soft as he is/was, he's still a much better shooter than Smart)

If another team actually offers him more than 4 years, 60M, then sorry Smart, but see ya!

[saltlover]

Unless he gets traded to a non playoff team, he will show his value on our hopefully deep run. I think he still gets at least 10-12million.

I mostly think this.  I do have a caveat, however:  I think the Celtics match him at around $12 million per year.  Generally teams don’t like to make offers to RFAs they think will be matched, because then they’re helping another team get a player under a contract they’d like.  You see it with max deals just in case sometimes, with provisions that make it painful to match, but rarely (about one per season) for deals less than that.

So if the most Smart could get is around $12 million, which is close to where the Celtics would match, I don’t think he gets an offer from any team.  If a team is willing to go north of probably $15 million, that could scare the C’s off, and then an offer will be made.  But does a team want to go that high? Pre-season I’d have said yes.  Today I’d say no.  The playoffs could flip me back the other way.

I also don’t think he accepts an MLE offer.  If that’s the most he can get, he’s taking his qualifying offer of $6 million and seeing what happens in unrestricted free agency in 2019, when there’s a lot more cap room.

[Snakehead]

Good article showing the realities of the market.  Man, it's crazy how those contracts from a couple years ago look now.  Nurkic backup will make more than him.

Given how he didn't really make a jump on offense thus far and his hand issue (which IMO has looked worse when he came out and spoke on it and didn't show much of any acknowledgement about self harm behavior) I don't think he will get more than 10 mill a year in an offer, given the market.

[jpotter33]

Great. That means we’re just more likely to keep him on a reasonable contract then.