Author Topic: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.  (Read 949 times)

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Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« on: January 18, 2018, 01:30:45 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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In an analytical piece about how the Golden State Warriors are using Jordan Bell as a small ball center, Jonathan Tjarks relays an anecdote about how the number of traditional bigs in the NBA will continue to decline.

"Thereís a positive feedback loop happening with small ball: The more teams play it, the less valuable every traditional 5 in the league becomes," writes Tjarks. "I talked to one executive who thinks the number of big men in the NBA will be cut in half by 2020. Every team will soon be looking for its own version of Jordan Bell, if they arenít already."

The Warriors acquired the draft rights to Bell from the Bulls, who fell to the second round.

"The irony is that Bell is exactly the type of big man those teams need against Golden State," writes Tjarks. "He wouldnít be as successful with less offensive talent around him, but a player with his skill set is inherently valuable."

The Warriors have a net rating of +14.9 when Bell has played this season, which is the fourth best mark on the team.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/1/17/16898664/jordan-bell-golden-state-warriors

I still hate the fact we didnít get bell

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2018, 01:42:16 AM »

Offline Somebody

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Huh. My thinking is that guards will be cut in half, teams will be looking for players 6'6 or taller and unicorn big men will be in high demand rather than the league getting smaller.
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Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2018, 01:58:36 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Huh. My thinking is that guards will be cut in half, teams will be looking for players 6'6 or taller and unicorn big men will be in high demand rather than the league getting smaller.
guards can compensate for size with craftiness and speed. We saw that with IT and lesser degree Larkin. barea is still doing work. How would guards be cut in half? Iíve not seen guards cut in any percentage. If you mean  traditional 2 guards are extinct and I would agree but most are either leaning towards flex guards (Portland and Denver), having a 3 and D guard, or a defensive specialist bigger forward type of athlete

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2018, 02:17:36 AM »

Offline OnPoint

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Huh. My thinking is that guards will be cut in half, teams will be looking for players 6'6 or taller and unicorn big men will be in high demand rather than the league getting smaller.

Yes, pretty soon 80% of the league will fall between 6'5" and 6'10"

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2018, 03:44:24 AM »

Offline 2short

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That said if there is a dominant big man in the league things will change again.
Think if Shaq was a rookie.  Teams would immediately be looking for baynes type guys to guard him

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2018, 04:19:43 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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That said if there is a dominant big man in the league things will change again.
Think if Shaq was a rookie.  Teams would immediately be looking for baynes type guys to guard him

Thatís the thing. Joel Embiid is dominant. But game-planning for him isnít what the best teams in the league worry about.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2018, 06:07:01 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Huh. My thinking is that guards will be cut in half, teams will be looking for players 6'6 or taller and unicorn big men will be in high demand rather than the league getting smaller.

Yes, pretty soon 80% of the league will fall between 6'5" and 6'10"

The trend is that players whose height is below 6'2 and above 7'1 feet are losing their jobs league-wide.
Still, I think there will always be great 6'2-6'4 players. John Wall, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd types. There are some fantastic ballhandlers, generals with great speed and skill.
Marcus Smart fits within that body size category.
Telling from a pure logic standpoint, there are much more men of that height (that train BBall) on the Earth and therefore there is a bigger pool of these potential NBA players.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2018, 09:17:52 AM by Androslav »
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2018, 08:31:52 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I disagree with this.  Porzingis, Davis, Greek Freak, Embiid are all big men and very impactful.  Durant is nearly 7' also.  They are not traditional low post, sky hook big men but the importance of size or length is not going to go away in the NBA.  It is just that a big man with a 3pt shot is more valuable now than a big man with a sky hook.

What is happening is that there are not enough skilled big men to fill up the rosters on 30 teams so teams are having to work around that with smaller line ups.  But that is plan B not plan A.  Plan A would always be to get the skilled big man if you can.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2018, 08:35:57 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I really wish people would stop projecting the Warriors success as being the norm and being able to be duplicated.  The Warriors are just a unique team.  There isn't some new trend, even from the other top tier teams who all have traditional big men playing key roles. 
Mock Deadline - Hornets - Current Roster
PG - Teague, Rubio, MCW, Stone
SG - Monk, Lamb, Muhammad
SF - Wiggins, Sefolosha, Bacon
PF - Kaminsky, Faried, O'Bryant
C - Howard, Bradley

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2018, 08:53:23 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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I get his point, but it really depends on how you use the word "big men." Giannis, Porzingis, Davis, Cousins, KAT, Emiid, Horford, and Jokic are going nowhere. Ayton, Bagley, Jackson all look like possible upper-tier guys in this year's draft class. What about Love, Vucevic, Aldridge, Sabonis, Horford, and Gasol? What about Markannen, Collins, and Patton (I have a lot of stock in him) from last year's draft class.

That doesn't even begin to talk about rim runners like Jordan, Howard, Capella, Drummond, Kanter, Adams, Gortat, Len, Nurkic, Collins, and Favors. The 2018 draft class features possible rim runners like Bamba, Carter, Williams, Robinson, and Wiley.

I actually think there is a greater demand on the talent level for big men than ever before, or at least in the last 20 years. That demand is two-fold.

The demand is personal -- that each big man be multi-talented instead of just rim-runners. In one sense, this means that pure rim-runners are going the way of the dinosaur. If you define "big man" as a "rim runner," then it is true that it may be cut in half by 2020.

But the demand is also league-wide. For instance, part of the reason teams are going small is because they don't have the players to put two talented big men on the court together. As with any market, demand will eventually flood the market with new players.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2018, 09:11:23 AM »

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I disagree with this.  Porzingis, Davis, Greek Freak, Embiid are all big men and very impactful.  Durant is nearly 7' also.  They are not traditional low post, sky hook big men but the importance of size or length is not going to go away in the NBA.  It is just that a big man with a 3pt shot is more valuable now than a big man with a sky hook.

What is happening is that there are not enough skilled big men to fill up the rosters on 30 teams so teams are having to work around that with smaller line ups.  But that is plan B not plan A.  Plan A would always be to get the skilled big man if you can.
Agreed, and I see it as a simple supply-and-demand relationship.  It won't take long for 7-foot kids to see they need a 3-pointer.  Just think about guys who play the 5 today (leave out Porzingis, Giannis, Durant, etc.).  Embiid has that shot as does Horford.  There is nothing inherent in height that prevents a guy from learning to shoot a 3-pointer.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2018, 09:22:29 AM »

Offline JBcat

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I disagree with this.  Porzingis, Davis, Greek Freak, Embiid are all big men and very impactful.  Durant is nearly 7' also.  They are not traditional low post, sky hook big men but the importance of size or length is not going to go away in the NBA.  It is just that a big man with a 3pt shot is more valuable now than a big man with a sky hook.

What is happening is that there are not enough skilled big men to fill up the rosters on 30 teams so teams are having to work around that with smaller line ups.  But that is plan B not plan A.  Plan A would always be to get the skilled big man if you can.

Yep, and add Towns, Cousins, and Jokic to your list. Aldridge is having a big year.  Drummond is having an excellent year.  Even Howard seems to be having a good year.  We have our own Horford. Gobert, Jordan, Gasol still being very effective. 

You have 2 big time prospects coming out this year with Ayton and Bagley and to a lesser extent Bamba.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2018, 09:45:18 AM »

Online footey

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Huh. My thinking is that guards will be cut in half, teams will be looking for players 6'6 or taller and unicorn big men will be in high demand rather than the league getting smaller.

They are called unicorns because they are so rare.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2018, 09:48:25 AM »

Offline Valid

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That said if there is a dominant big man in the league things will change again.
Think if Shaq was a rookie.  Teams would immediately be looking for baynes type guys to guard him

Thatís the thing. Joel Embiid is dominant. But game-planning for him isnít what the best teams in the league worry about.
If he was on a good team, they certainly would. You don't think a lot of teams would be worried about Embiid if he played on a club like ours?

There is no way anyone can sit there with a straight face and say that teams wouldn't have to gameplan for a Shaq type of player in any era.

Re: Exec: Number Of Big Men In NBA Could Be Cut In Half By 2020.
« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2018, 11:18:59 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Makes sense.  As the league trends toward skill rather than size, more teams are going to field lineups featuring 2-3 smaller guards, and there will be fewer spots available for hyperathletic players 6'10''+ who lack superlative skills in areas other than setting screens, rebounding, and dunking.


I think Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis are good examples of what role-playing bigs will need to offer as time goes on: excellent defense, screen setting, passing, lots of energy, and modest floor spacing.


This is probably overall a good thing.  Used to be that every team needed to field 5-6 guys over 6'9" who had few skills beyond being tall and being able to finish over 60% within 5 feet of the basket.  Remember all the stiffs the Celts tried out for the back end of the roster during the KG years?  Mikki Moore?  Shelden Williams?  Sean Williams?  That kind of player is a dying breed, and probably for the best.

Meanwhile, guys who can capably manage a pick and roll, hit a spot up 3, and at least make a credible attempt at defending a pick and roll, will stick around the league longer and longer.  See: Jarrett Jack, Ray Felton, Milos Teodosic, Jose Calderon, Jameer Nelson, etc.

The most interesting transition to watch will be in the draft.  I think more and more you'll see players with the Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler type skillset fall 10-15 spots further in the draft than they would have in the 00s.  Some guys who produce big numbers at the college level will probably fall to the second round or not get drafted at all.

After all, if you can find guys like Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis on the free agent market nearly every summer, why spend a 1st round pick on a guy who might max out as a 20 minute per night, 6 point / 6 rebound guy for you?
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