Cap Question moving forward?

[Fireworks_Boom!]

Wyc & Company have always been willing to go above cap. I was curious if my understanding of our go forward cap is correct? (Saltlover et al speak up)

We have the Marcus Smart situation to figure out. Lets say we retain him at $4 years $48-$60m or $12-$15m annually (just a range to make an argument).

Projected salary cap of $107m (currently), Nader/Theis/Ojeleye at $1.4m each or $4.2m, Pick 2-5 projects to $4.5-$6m, Pick #29 projects to $1.4m and Smart at $12-15m brings us to $129-$132.5m. Is this a correct assumption?

Projected Salary Cap (Top 8 teams outside of BOS)
GSW: $128m
HOU: $147m (Yikes!)
CLE: $122m
OKC: $137m
TOR: $126m
SAS: $134m
MIL: $106m (with a Jabari Parker situation to figure out with cap hold of $20m or $126m)
WAS: $125m

Average: $133m (puts us right on average with top contending teams in league the way I see it)

Any holes in this theory??

[keevsnick]

One hole, we aren't paying Smart 12-15 million the way he's played this year.

[Fireworks_Boom!]

The Smart resigning is left to debate. I tend to lean on the side that we do resign him in what feels like an overpay for his statistical contribution but for what seems like a bargain to management/coaching given his intangibles (position flexibility, defensive toughness, locker room leadership, etc.). The 3rd point (locker room leadership) could be a reason why we don't resign him. Perhaps we want to allow Tatum/Brown to ascend to this role and with Smart they are unable to.

[Moranis]

Your numbers are wrong.  Golden State is at 128 million, but that is only 8 players.  Cleveland's 122 million doesn't include Thomas (or the BKN pick, or Wade, Green, and several other bench players) and has Lebron at 35 million (if he opts out and stays he will make a bit more than that).  Houston's 147 million includes all sorts of cap holds as they only have 80 million under contract next year.  The cap holds include Paul (39), Ariza (12), Capela (5..  Capela will easily make well in excess of 5.8 (though Paul makes less than 39).  San Antonio is pretty similar as it has only about 100 million in actual salary, with a number of cap holds (including Parker at 24 million and he isn't getting that).  OKC includes both Anthony and George.  Anthony probably opts in, but George is not opting into only 20 million.  Even if he stays in OKC, he will be paid in the 30 million range, not 20.  Most of the other teams are far from complete rosters and have their own free agents to figure out.

[RodyTur10]

TP Moranis, for additional information.

The conclusion is that there will be some mighty expensive rosters around the next year(s). All as a result of the cap explosion, and the failure by players, agents and GM's to adjust.

The Celtics have no choice either. To keep the team together will cost a lot of dollars.

[Fireworks_Boom!]

TP Moranis, for additional information.

The conclusion is that there will be some mighty expensive rosters around the next year(s). All as a result of the cap explosion, and the failure by players, agents and GM's to adjust.

The Celtics have no choice either. To keep the team together will cost a lot of dollars.

The question becomes, will the Celtics opt not to sign Smart and compete much closer to the cap going forward (2019 projects to be $108m)=? Without the Smart contract, our salary projects to drop to $115m(ish). Would be pretty impressive to compete at the level we will be capable of and that close to the cap.

[otherdave]

I have been working with a salary cap of 102m and a luxury tax threshold of 122.8m for next year.  A key decision for C's mgt team is whether or not to try to stay under the tax threshold one last year (2018-2019).  This can be accomplished several ways (I am assuming that LAL pick will convey):

1.Sign MS to say 11.5m while trading MMorris for future draft picks (i.e. taking no salary back - & G Hayward is coming back!) and not signing UFA A Baynes.

2. Let MS go down the highway, keep M Morris one more year, resign ABaynes to say 6.5m using the MLE

3. MS plays for his QO of 6.1 and C's keep one of AB or MM

The possibilities are endless of course, but I really think mgt will make the moves to avoid paying tax next year, not because they don't have the funds, but rather to put off the repeater tax by one year.  If owners want to avoid tax next year then not everyone will be back - but we already know this because DA is the GM.

[ThePaintedArea]

The Smart resigning is left to debate. I tend to lean on the side that we do resign him in what feels like an overpay for his statistical contribution but for what seems like a bargain to management/coaching given his intangibles (position flexibility, defensive toughness, locker room leadership, etc.). The 3rd point (locker room leadership) could be a reason why we don't resign him. Perhaps we want to allow Tatum/Brown to ascend to this role and with Smart they are unable to.

I don't know about his locker room leadership, but how about his leadership on the floor? Outstanding.  When he comes in, things happen, and he lifts the physical play on both ends, as well as taking charge, directing traffic, and saving possessions.  On the other hand, his turnovers have ballooned this year, and the FT attempts have backslid.