Author Topic: My Outrageous, Green-Tinted, Best-case Scenario Player Comparison for Jayson Tat  (Read 2483 times)

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Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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https://treytalkssports.com/2018/01/11/my-outrageous-green-tinted-best-case-scenario-player-comparison-for-jayson-tatum/

When I watched Tatum highlights from high school, I saw Gerald Henderson. When I watching him in college, I saw prime Danny Granger. When I watched him in summer league, I worried that his athleticism and strength would keep him back from being as good as Danny Granger.

But during the regular season against real NBA athletes and in Brad Stevens’ system, Tatum has looked like a really good athlete.

One night he dunks over Karl Anthony-Towns. Another night he blocks Frank Kaminsky’s 3. Another night he picks Wes Matthews pocket for a break-away dunk. Another night he closes a game in the 4th with a tomahawk slam after a one-dribble drive-by.

He looks all of 6’9” with a 7’4” wingspan. He looks like he has the body to (slowly) fill out to be at least 230 without losing athleticism. He has the quick first step to beat his man. He has back-to-the-basket moves. He has a high finish on his jumpshot that is impossible to block. He has the 3 point shooting. He has the ability to draw fouls.

My Outrageous, Green-Tinted, Best-case Scenario Ceiling Comparison: Kevin Durant
Through 43 games, Jayson Tatum is averaging

14 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, and 1 steal on 50-46-83 shooting splits.

Through 43 games, Rookie Durant averaged

19 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal on 40-28-87 shooting splits.

The main difference is usage. Durant had the ball a lot more, which means his points were higher but his efficiency was lower. The other main difference is rebounding, which may be partially due to Durant playing guard his rookie year (PJ Carlesimo!).

But they play an almost identical game. They can drive with long strides to get to the basket quickly. They can post up with a variety of moves and fade-aways. They can shoot the 3. They can handle the ball. Their bodies are remarkably similar at the same stage. Both have a confidence, not cockiness, in their abilities. They are both calm in their demeanor. They both effect the game on both sides of the ball and know how to use their length defensively.

They took different paths in college to the pros, but Tatum is the closest thing I’ve seen to young Durant. I will hedge no bets. I will not take off my green-tinted glasses. Tatum’s ceiling is Kevin Durant!

Online CelticsElite

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It’s not outrageous. A few people here actually have had the same player comparison of Durant. I agree 100% that he can reach the Durant level.  For this reason, Tatum must be untouchable in trade offers.

Imagine the looks Tatum will get when Hayward comes arrive

Offline Monkhouse

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TP for the work into info and stats, but I still don't see it. Kevin Durant is freakishly long, and is finally using his length on defense. He has shown he can be a NBA leading scorer with two way capabilities. I like Tatum, but I don't think he'll have the same resume as KD. You're basically stating that Tatum would be the 2nd or 3rd best player in the NBA. I think we have to be realistic.

I do think Tatum will be a hybrid of Granger, George and Pierce. Plus Durant is basically 7 foot to me.

Not to derail your thread but my outrageous comparison for Jaylen Brown is an more athletic Klay Thompson. Although JB is not the complete shooter Klay was, he's still younger and shown he has a great shooting stroke.
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Offline Sophomore

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TP!

I want to believe!




Offline seancally

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Not outrageous - I'm inclined to agree. I think he looks more Durant than Pierce, for what it's worth.

Quote
Not to derail your thread but my outrageous comparison for Jaylen Brown is an more athletic Klay Thompson.

I think Jaylen is more Jimmy Buckets than Klay. Not the sexy choice since it's been said a hundred times, but I'd be cool with Durant, Butler to go along with Kyrie, Al and Gordon  ;D
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Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Not outrageous - I'm inclined to agree. I think he looks more Durant than Pierce, for what it's worth.

Quote
Not to derail your thread but my outrageous comparison for Jaylen Brown is an more athletic Klay Thompson.

I think Jaylen is more Jimmy Buckets than Klay. Not the sexy choice since it's been said a hundred times, but I'd be cool with Durant, Butler to go along with Kyrie, Al and Gordon  ;D

Brown will be an interesting guy (I'm sure I'll do one in the future on him). Two things potentially keep him from being Butler: 1) Usage - he will be the 4th fiddle on our team when Hayward gets back, and 2) ball-handling - Butler is a primary ball-handler, but I struggle to ever see Brown in that role.

The Klay Thompson one is interesting, not because I think Brown will ever be as good of a shooter as Thompson, but because I could see him playing off of other celtic ball-handlers to get his buckets like Klay does. Klay Thompson is an elite shot-finisher, not shot-creator. I think Brown could likewise be an elite shot-finisher, but not an elite shot-creator. I also think he is already a better defender than Klay.

Offline CFAN38

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not to dump water on the Tatum could be Durant post but I have a couple observations. First let me say not a huge fan of pure player comps because very few players play the same role on offense and defense with the same physical tools and the same skill set. There have been a few exceptions namely Kobe so closely mimicking Jordan's game. Rather then looking for a pure comp (i posted this in the draft section as well) I like to find a player comparable role on offense, on defense, physical attributes, and skill set.

I will say that Tatum could some day fill a Durant like offensive role

On defense Durant has turned himself into a rim protecting 4, while Tatum blocks shots he is not a rim protector in the traditional penetration stopping sense of the role. I do think that Tatum will be a better 1 vs 1 perimeter defender then Durant if he keeps up his focus and intensity.

Physically
Durant is much bigger, sadly ESPN killed DX measurement data based so that reference is gone. However as I recall Durant was 6'10 with a 7'4 wingspan at draft time. reports are that he was grown and is now around 7'. (Team USA photos show he is taller then Boogie and AD). Tatum while still growing can into the league at 6'8 with a 7' wingspan. I will give it to you that he appears to have grown but I would cap at around 6'9 with 7'1" wingspan. In terms of physical comp I think Paul George is a better fit.

In terms of Skill set I still like the Paul Pierce comp. His ability to score in pure isolation, post up and in the flow of the offense is reminiscent of a prime big 3 Pierce. He doesn't have the same strength as pierce so his moves are all more finesse based but the general idea is the same.


Bottom Line I could see 2-3 from now Tatum as a 25ppg scorer starting in the All-Star game






Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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not to dump water on the Tatum could be Durant post but I have a couple observations. First let me say not a huge fan of pure player comps because very few players play the same role on offense and defense with the same physical tools and the same skill set. There have been a few exceptions namely Kobe so closely mimicking Jordan's game. Rather then looking for a pure comp (i posted this in the draft section as well) I like to find a player comparable role on offense, on defense, physical attributes, and skill set.

I will say that Tatum could some day fill a Durant like offensive role

On defense Durant has turned himself into a rim protecting 4, while Tatum blocks shots he is not a rim protector in the traditional penetration stopping sense of the role. I do think that Tatum will be a better 1 vs 1 perimeter defender then Durant if he keeps up his focus and intensity.

Physically
Durant is much bigger, sadly ESPN killed DX measurement data based so that reference is gone. However as I recall Durant was 6'10 with a 7'4 wingspan at draft time. reports are that he was grown and is now around 7'. (Team USA photos show he is taller then Boogie and AD). Tatum while still growing can into the league at 6'8 with a 7' wingspan. I will give it to you that he appears to have grown but I would cap at around 6'9 with 7'1" wingspan. In terms of physical comp I think Paul George is a better fit.

In terms of Skill set I still like the Paul Pierce comp. His ability to score in pure isolation, post up and in the flow of the offense is reminiscent of a prime big 3 Pierce. He doesn't have the same strength as pierce so his moves are all more finesse based but the general idea is the same.


Bottom Line I could see 2-3 from now Tatum as a 25ppg scorer starting in the All-Star game

I mean, we probably don't see eye to eye on some of this. My memory says Durant came in at 6'9''. He may have grown to 7', but so may Tatum.

The last measurement taken of Tatum before the draft was in 2016, when he was 6'8''. I think its a reasonable possibility that he grew since then.

Durant could not consistently play defense in the post early in his career either, but he learned. Tatum could have (and I'm arguing he will have) a similar trajectory.

Edit: Still, there is room for disagreement. Good thoughts!
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 02:11:22 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Offline JBcat

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Not outrageous - I'm inclined to agree. I think he looks more Durant than Pierce, for what it's worth.

Quote
Not to derail your thread but my outrageous comparison for Jaylen Brown is an more athletic Klay Thompson.

I think Jaylen is more Jimmy Buckets than Klay. Not the sexy choice since it's been said a hundred times, but I'd be cool with Durant, Butler to go along with Kyrie, Al and Gordon  ;D

Both Jimmy And Klay play more below the rim than Jaylen does.  How about Clyde Drexler if everything comes together for Jaylen?

Offline fairweatherfan

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I think a middle-class man's Kevin Durant is a pretty realistic ceiling for Tatum and a very complimentary one.

I'd like to see him make the leap to a full-fledged star before I'd compare him to the real thing.

Offline Big333223

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Looking at what he's done as a rookie, knowing he's only 19, understanding that when we're talking about ceilings, we're talking about how good a guy reasonably can be, not necessarily will be, I'd say his ceiling is Kevin Durant and I don't see any reason, so far, he can't reach that ceiling.
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Looking at what he's done as a rookie, knowing he's only 19, understanding that when we're talking about ceilings, we're talking about how good a guy reasonably can be, not necessarily will be, I'd say his ceiling is Kevin Durant and I don't see any reason, so far, he can't reach that ceiling.
exactly. Like many all time greats, Tatum has made noise especially by leading the entire league in 3pt% among many other stats

Offline keevsnick

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Ya I mean could he be Kevin Durant? Sure. But the odds of that are exceedingly low. Not because Tatum hasn't been great, but because Kevin Durant is one of the three best players in the league, an MVP candidate and may very well finish up as an all time great. I think a better comparison is Paul George. Maybe not quite as good defensively, but a little more efficient offensively. They have similar body types and even similar athleticism.

Offline keevsnick

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So maybe he has like a 10% of being a Durant level player but like a 50+% chance of being a George level player. Either way he's gonna be good.

Offline MasterEmile

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I always argued that Tatums's floor was Paul George and his ceiling is Kevin Durant.

For brown it's floor Jimmy Butler and ceiling Kawhi Leonard.