Author Topic: Trumpís Economy (merged)  (Read 2716 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2018, 10:22:45 AM »

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33859
  • Tommy Points: -27915
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
Quote
Economists Credit Trump as Tailwind for U.S. Growth, Hiring and Stocks

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal say President Donald Trump has had generally positive effects on U.S. economic growth, hiring and the performance of the stock market during his first year in office.

The professional forecasters also predicted 2018 would see solid growth and a continued decline in the jobless rate. One factor: the tax cuts signed into law by Mr. Trump in December, which most economists say will boost the economy for several years at least.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-credit-trump-as-tailwind-for-u-s-growth-hiring-and-stocks-1515682893

Quote
Economists agree: Trump, not Obama, gets credit for economy

Who deserves credit for the booming economy? This is not a petty argument. How voters answer the question could well determine whether Democrats retake the House of Representatives come November.

Trump and Obama (and their admirers) are slugging it out, both claiming that it is their policies that have led to the ongoing economic expansion, steady job growth and higher stock prices.

Happily for President Trump, the pros agree with him. A recent survey of economists suggest it is President Trump, and not Obama, who should be taking a bow

The Wall Street Journal asked 68 business, financial and academic economists who was responsible for the strengthening of the economy, and most ďsuggested Mr. Trumpís election deserves at least some creditĒ for the upturn.

A majority said the president had been ďsomewhatĒ or ďstronglyĒ positive for job creation, gross domestic product growth and the rising stock market.

The pros cite the White Houseís push for lighter regulation and the recent tax bill as critical to a pro-growth environment; more than 90 percent of the group thought the tax bill would boost GDP expansion over the next two years.

A year ago in the same survey, economists awarded President Obama mixed grades. Most saw his policies as positive for financial stability, but neutral-to-negative for GDP growth and negative for long-term growth. By contrast, Trump was seen as neutral to positive for long-term gains.

Why would Trump rate higher than Obama with this group? Economists point to the upturn in business confidence that accompanied Trumpís election, and tie that to increasing business investment. Spending on capital goods accelerated sharply over the first three quarters of last year, growing at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent.

Such outlays will spur productivity gains and lead to wage hikes, creating a virtuous circle complete with rising consumer confidence and spending.

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/368904-economists-agree-trump-not-obama-gets-credit-for-economy
So a bunch of financial and business economists that are on the industry's payroll agree that Trump is responsible for an upswing that started in May 2016? Color me unimpressed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER

Any reason to doubt their findings or credentials other than partisanship?  Itís not like either the WSJ or The Hill are particularly big fans of Trump.


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Re: Because of Trumps Tax Cuts-100's of Companies giving Bonuses and Raises
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2018, 10:34:08 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17073
  • Tommy Points: 1215
Walmart is playing catchup, they have needed to raise min wage for a while and have been doing so the last few years.

"Politics may have given Walmart cover to announce a wage increase while its core business remains under attack from competitors and the labor market. But nothing about the challenges the company faces is changing, which means this wonít be the last time the company closes dozens of stores, or the last time they announce a raise for thousands of workers."

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/even-without-tax-reform-walmart-needed-raise-wages-201028372.html
Walmart pretty much already had plans to raise their minimum wage to $11 per hour. Over the last two years they raised their minimum to $9 then to $10 an hour. They also give little to no health insurance to hourly employees. The idea that Walmart is being generous to their hourly employees is a sham.
Also, unemployment is at an all-time low. That means you can't simply hire dirt cheap by just having a job opening.

Quote
Observers said Walmart almost had to raise wages now if it wanted to keep step with peers such as Target, which late last year raised its starting wage to $11 an hour, with plans to reach $15 by 2020.

ďI wouldíve been astounded if they hadnít raised wages,Ē said Thomas Kochan, a professor at MITís Sloan School of Management. ďWhatís impossible to sort out is how much of this is because of savings from the tax cuts, and how much is because of pressure theyíre receiving from employees and labor groups.Ē
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/01/11/walmart-to-raise-starting-hourly-wage-to-11-offer-paid-parental-leave
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: Black unemployment rate falls to record low under Trump.
« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2018, 10:35:51 AM »

Offline Pucaccia

  • Al Horford
  • Posts: 440
  • Tommy Points: 47
Thanks, President Obama.
What did Obama do? He did nothing.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2018, 10:40:19 AM »

Offline Pucaccia

  • Al Horford
  • Posts: 440
  • Tommy Points: 47
Dow hits 26000 today. Due to Trumps economic policies - Tax Cuts and lower regulations and overall consumer confidence.  Geniuses like Paul Krugman and Mark Cuban predicted that the stock market would crash under Trump. 

Our 401K's are stronger and more money in our pocket.

If you hate Trump it must kill you that you are doing better economically under Trumps presidency.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #34 on: January 16, 2018, 10:42:59 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17073
  • Tommy Points: 1215
Any reason to doubt their findings or credentials other than partisanship?  Itís not like either the WSJ or The Hill are particularly big fans of Trump.
I doubt their sample selection. I don't doubt that "68 businesses and economists" said such a thing. But that doesn't in fact make it true. This is a small sample of people with a potential egenda, and their stated opinion doesn't conclusively tie capital goods investment with the Trump presidency. Especially when it doesn't really line up with the economic facts.

The current trend in capital good purchases started in mid-2016. Sure, Trump didn't hurt capital investment, but businesses evidently had no issues investing at the same pace under Obama with the prospect of a surefire Clinton win. All else is smoke and mirrors.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2018, 10:56:17 AM by kozlodoev »
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #35 on: January 16, 2018, 11:36:00 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

  • In The Rafters
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 41553
  • Tommy Points: 2317
  • You ain't the boss of the freakin' bedclothes.
Thanks, President Obama.
What did Obama do? He did nothing.

Simply not true.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: Black unemployment rate falls to record low under Trump.
« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2018, 11:38:24 AM »

Offline byennie

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1846
  • Tommy Points: 241
Thanks, President Obama.
What did Obama do? He did nothing.

Right. Let's measure the economy by the stock market, and claim the guy who doubled it in 8 years didn't do anything. How can that possibly make sense?
---
Lucky17 Yahoo! Points League: Jackalopes
Offseason Tracker

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2018, 11:41:13 AM »

Offline Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23526
  • Tommy Points: 1007
  • What a Pub Should Be
So if the market bubble bursts & the country plunges into a recession in, say,  '19-'20, who gets credit for that?

I mean, I'm glad the market is thriving right now.  I think a lot of what's going on is speculative at the moment.  I'm really interested to see what happens once this tax bill really goes into effect.  What will the ramifications actually be?


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2018, 11:44:17 AM »

Offline TomHeinsohn

  • Aron Baynes
  • Posts: 129
  • Tommy Points: 16
corporate efficiency =/= general well being. A big LOL at you if you use the stock market as an index for the plight of the average American. A big and hearty LOL.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #39 on: January 16, 2018, 12:39:21 PM »

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33859
  • Tommy Points: -27915
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
corporate efficiency =/= general well being. A big LOL at you if you use the stock market as an index for the plight of the average American. A big and hearty LOL.

What about consumer confidence? (17 year high)? Holiday spending (12 year high).  The unemployment rate, especially among those in their economic prime, is very low. Poverty is very low. Wage growth has outpaced inflation.  Thatís before the tax cuts have taken affect.

The economy is strong. Thatís never going to mean that people are on easy street, but economic indicators are strong, and leading economists seemingly credit that at least in large part to current economic policy.

« Last Edit: January 16, 2018, 12:47:05 PM by Roy H. »


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #40 on: January 16, 2018, 01:03:07 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17073
  • Tommy Points: 1215
corporate efficiency =/= general well being. A big LOL at you if you use the stock market as an index for the plight of the average American. A big and hearty LOL.

What about consumer confidence? (17 year high)? Holiday spending (12 year high).  The unemployment rate, especially among those in their economic prime, is very low. Poverty is very low. Wage growth has outpaced inflation.  Thatís before the tax cuts have taken affect.

The economy is strong. Thatís never going to mean that people are on easy street, but economic indicators are strong, and leading economists seemingly credit that at least in large part to current economic policy.
The economy has been strong for years now. But it's been strong for years, so it's hard to argue that Trump is "at least in large part" responsible for that.
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #41 on: January 16, 2018, 01:03:29 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 526
  • Tommy Points: 164
Economists will tell you that the US President has very little effect on the economy. That goes for all the good stuff as well as the bad stuff. Sure, he has a role in passing budget legislation, and the current President just did sign a new tax bill, but economists generally don't see it doing much for growth (while they expect it to expand the deficit in the long-term -- see below).

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2

I think it's safe to say that the Chair of the Federal Reserve, now Jerome Powell, has a much larger role in the economy than the President. Then there are other factors that no American policymaker is responsible for, of course. OPEC jacked up oil prices during Carter, for instance. The tech boom coincided with Clinton. The worst financial crisis in 70 years happened late in GW Bush's second term. You get the point.

As an aside... The original post highlighted low unemployment among blacks, and this seems to be a meme going around the conservative media of late. I think the subtle message is clear: black people are actually doing great under Trump, and need to stop complaining. Well, keep in mind that the unemployment rate is still much higher for blacks than it is for whites, and other metrics such as net wealth, home ownership, etc. are still much worse. The point is, don't look at this single number as an indicator of economic well-being.

"A thought of hatred must be destroyed by a more powerful thought of love."

http://fruittreeblog.com

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #42 on: January 16, 2018, 01:09:20 PM »

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33859
  • Tommy Points: -27915
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
corporate efficiency =/= general well being. A big LOL at you if you use the stock market as an index for the plight of the average American. A big and hearty LOL.

What about consumer confidence? (17 year high)? Holiday spending (12 year high).  The unemployment rate, especially among those in their economic prime, is very low. Poverty is very low. Wage growth has outpaced inflation.  Thatís before the tax cuts have taken affect.

The economy is strong. Thatís never going to mean that people are on easy street, but economic indicators are strong, and leading economists seemingly credit that at least in large part to current economic policy.
The economy has been strong for years now. But it's been strong for years, so it's hard to argue that Trump is "at least in large part" responsible for that.

And yet the economists surveyed by the WSJ argued just that.


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #43 on: January 16, 2018, 01:44:29 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17073
  • Tommy Points: 1215
corporate efficiency =/= general well being. A big LOL at you if you use the stock market as an index for the plight of the average American. A big and hearty LOL.

What about consumer confidence? (17 year high)? Holiday spending (12 year high).  The unemployment rate, especially among those in their economic prime, is very low. Poverty is very low. Wage growth has outpaced inflation.  Thatís before the tax cuts have taken affect.

The economy is strong. Thatís never going to mean that people are on easy street, but economic indicators are strong, and leading economists seemingly credit that at least in large part to current economic policy.
The economy has been strong for years now. But it's been strong for years, so it's hard to argue that Trump is "at least in large part" responsible for that.

And yet the economists surveyed by the WSJ argued just that.
No, most of them stated that the election of Trump deserves "at least some credit". "At least some" is not the same as "at least in large part". Also, coming in an not burning the house down could be construed as a form deserving "some credit", so this particular answer is deliciously nondescript anyway.
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #44 on: January 16, 2018, 01:51:23 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11756
  • Tommy Points: 1277
Good for our country that the economy is doing well.   Sad for our country that this is happening on the watch of Donald Trump. 

It doesn't matter whether or not it is actually Trump's policies that are growing the economy.   In addition to the practical indicators (stock market; unemployment rate), the main indicator of prosperity is... perception.  If the people think things are getting better, then thing are getting better. If they believe it is due to Trump, then it's due to Trump.   The amazing thing about this "era" is that the economy is improving under the leadership of someone that most of us disapprove of (not only this blog, but across the country --- 35% approval...).   We need to take the bad with the good for now -- Trump will be POTUS for at least 3 more years.  IF the only thing I cared about was the nation's economy, then perhaps I'd want more Trump.  But that isn't all that matters.  On a personal note, Trump's policies will eventually hurt my own wallet as the source of a good portion of my income (federal grant $$ to education) will be diminished significantly in the next couple of years.  The tax cut has implications/consequences that won't be experienced right away.