Author Topic: Trumpís Economy (merged)  (Read 13641 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #120 on: June 01, 2018, 08:58:37 PM »

Offline Cman

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12538
  • Tommy Points: 23
US Labor....Just added 223K New Jobs.  3.8% unemployment.  Lowest unemployment for African Americans, Hispanic....and 19 year low for Women.......Winning!

The jobs numbers today were great. They continue the 90+ month trend of job growth. Truly an impressive recovery we have seen under both Obama and Trump.

Too bad Trump leaked the numbers early. BLS May decide not to give them to him in the future.

As a former BLS employee, I canít express how angered I was at his tweeting that info.  Those big releases are sacred ó there is a huge effort to make certain they arenít released early.

Agreed. Honestly, the best course of action is to not provide them to the WH ahead of time anymore. I hate to say it, but I think that's the only way to guarantee their secrecy.
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #121 on: June 01, 2018, 09:20:14 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6451
  • Tommy Points: 938
The unemployment number is impressive, but we need more of the story.  What kind of jobs are being created? 

In healthcare for example, which supposedly makes up 1/5 of the economy, it's common to have contract per diem, un-benefited positions in large healthcare systems.  You often get paid less than normal for a comparable benefited position and you get no benefits.  It's great if someone has a job, but if that job pays single digit wages and doesn't come with benefits, that's not going to sustain them especially in areas with high costs of living.

Wage growth is lackluster despite the massive business tax cuts and the high demand for workers.  The post-tax cut employee bonuses were nice - but let's be honest, those were just corporate PR moves.  Most of that newfound money is going to stock buybacks, which isn't going to help your average American.  And I'm pretty darn certain that this tax cut is not going to pay for itself.

Meanwhile gas prices are going up, insurance premiums are going to continue to climb (in part more than it should due to the repeal of the individual mandate), and goods are likely to become more expensive with the upcoming trade war.  So while the basic numbers look nice it may not reveal the true state of American living.  Just like Obama's numbers looked pretty darn good, but the economy really "wasn't working" for a lot of people.  I suspect that this is still the case.


Broussard: "Did you call bank?"
Pierce: "I called game."

- Paul Pierce on his game-winning buzzer beater, game 3 EC Semi-finals against the Atlanta Hawks

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #122 on: June 18, 2018, 11:08:37 AM »

Offline Pucaccia

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 512
  • Tommy Points: 57
GDP Nears 4% growth.
While every democratic pundit suggest lack luster growth around 2% was the new norm, Trumps economy nears 4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trumps-forecast-of-4-percent-gdp-growth-close-to-coming-true-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html

America is winning!

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #123 on: June 25, 2018, 10:26:17 AM »

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19337
  • Tommy Points: 915
Harley Davidson is transferring manufacturing jobs out of the country, presumably to Europe, to avoid the tariff imposed by the EU.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #124 on: June 26, 2018, 11:49:16 AM »

Offline Cman

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12538
  • Tommy Points: 23
GDP Nears 4% growth.
While every democratic pundit suggest lack luster growth around 2% was the new norm, Trumps economy nears 4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trumps-forecast-of-4-percent-gdp-growth-close-to-coming-true-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html

America is winning!

Pretty much all economists predicted short term boost from the tax cut.

But you are confusing quarterly growth rate with annual growth rate.

The economy has been averaging about 2% maybe 2.5% growth rate on an annual basis for some time now. Here's the historical data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI

On a quarter by quarter basis, you can have more or less than that. For example, Obama had close to 6% growth rate one quarter.

Celtics fan for life.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #125 on: June 26, 2018, 11:56:05 AM »

Offline Fan from VT

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3992
  • Tommy Points: 725
GDP Nears 4% growth.
While every democratic pundit suggest lack luster growth around 2% was the new norm, Trumps economy nears 4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trumps-forecast-of-4-percent-gdp-growth-close-to-coming-true-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html

America is winning!

Pretty much all economists predicted short term boost from the tax cut.

But you are confusing quarterly growth rate with annual growth rate.

The economy has been averaging about 2% maybe 2.5% growth rate on an annual basis for some time now. Here's the historical data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI

On a quarter by quarter basis, you can have more or less than that. For example, Obama had close to 6% growth rate one quarter.

I like positive economic growth, but a lot of whether an economy is good or not comes down to how you measure it.

For example, there is compelling evidence that looking at unemployment rate (which is low) is less helpful (because it has to do with people actively looking and ignores people who have given up) than looking at Employment rate (percent of people who have a job), which has stagnated. Additionally, "theoretically," if unemployment is low, you should see actual wages increase, which has NOT been happening, likely because the Employment rate has stagnated even as the unemployment rate is low.

So, while, in a vacuum, I like positive GDP growth to negative growth, it looks like the positive growth is NOT making its way into wages, but rather to the elite income levels (because trickle down has never actually trickled down).

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #126 on: June 26, 2018, 12:11:04 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
For example, there is compelling evidence that looking at unemployment rate (which is low) is less helpful (because it has to do with people actively looking and ignores people who have given up) than looking at Employment rate (percent of people who have a job), which has stagnated. Additionally, "theoretically," if unemployment is low, you should see actual wages increase, which has NOT been happening, likely because the Employment rate has stagnated even as the unemployment rate is low.
"Employment rate" is (1 - unemployment rate). What you're looking for is labor force participation. Of course, looking at labor force participation has its own caveats: people drop out of the LF not just because they've "given up". They can retire, become disabled, choose to become stay-at-home parents, go to school, you name it. One measure is not inherently better (or coming with fewer caveats) than the other.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2018, 12:17:44 PM by kozlodoev »
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #127 on: June 26, 2018, 12:29:58 PM »

Offline Cman

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12538
  • Tommy Points: 23
For example, there is compelling evidence that looking at unemployment rate (which is low) is less helpful (because it has to do with people actively looking and ignores people who have given up) than looking at Employment rate (percent of people who have a job), which has stagnated. Additionally, "theoretically," if unemployment is low, you should see actual wages increase, which has NOT been happening, likely because the Employment rate has stagnated even as the unemployment rate is low.

Or because workers have less bargaining power than they used to. i.e, monopsony

Celtics fan for life.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #128 on: June 26, 2018, 12:42:13 PM »

Online hpantazo

  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17538
  • Tommy Points: 510
Harley Davidson is transferring manufacturing jobs out of the country, presumably to Europe, to avoid the tariff imposed by the EU.


America is winning!

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #129 on: June 26, 2018, 01:31:50 PM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3379
  • Tommy Points: 521
GDP Nears 4% growth.
While every democratic pundit suggest lack luster growth around 2% was the new norm, Trumps economy nears 4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trumps-forecast-of-4-percent-gdp-growth-close-to-coming-true-as-americans-spend-tax-bill-proceeds.html

America is winning!

Pretty much all economists predicted short term boost from the tax cut.

But you are confusing quarterly growth rate with annual growth rate.

The economy has been averaging about 2% maybe 2.5% growth rate on an annual basis for some time now. Here's the historical data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI

On a quarter by quarter basis, you can have more or less than that. For example, Obama had close to 6% growth rate one quarter.

I like positive economic growth, but a lot of whether an economy is good or not comes down to how you measure it.


Definitely.   One discouraging truth is that even though the economy may be generating vast amounts of wealth, when a larger and larger percentage of that wealth keeps sinking into the hands of a smaller and smaller percentage of the people, then that isn't really a healthy economy for anyone but the tiny, elite few.

The wealth distribution trends that have been going on and recently accelerated (massively by this latest tax plan) are very depressing and discouraging.

Lessee ....
  • Attack U.S. democratic institutions via the fundamental flaw of the Electoral College?   Check.
  • Foster U.S. social stress and unease through increased extreme class/wealth disparity via de-regulation and tax scam?  Check.
  • Foster further U.S. social stress by inciting racial divides at every turn?   Check.
  • Isolate the U.S. by destroying trade and political relations with long-time economic and political allies?  Check.
Is there anything else Vladimir has on Donald's "To-do list"?
  • Get even more disgustingly rich by violating every possible conflict-of-interest when it comes to one's own personal business and holdings?  Check -- but that one is on Donald's own To-do list.
[[/list]
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.
#OneCitizenOneVote - True Election Reform:  Eliminate the anti-democratic Electoral College farce now.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #130 on: June 26, 2018, 02:14:15 PM »

Offline Cman

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12538
  • Tommy Points: 23
Harley Davidson is transferring manufacturing jobs out of the country, presumably to Europe, to avoid the tariff imposed by the EU.


Quote
A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1011584315040419840

Celtics fan for life.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #131 on: June 26, 2018, 02:38:28 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
Harley Davidson is transferring manufacturing jobs out of the country, presumably to Europe, to avoid the tariff imposed by the EU.


Quote
A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1011584315040419840
LOL. Harley Davidson already has manufacturing facilities in Australia, Brazil, India, and Thailand. The Donald is a bit late to this party.
(Formerly) managing Rilski Sportist to glory at http://www.buzzerbeater.com

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #132 on: June 26, 2018, 03:00:18 PM »

Offline celticinorlando

  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19132
  • Tommy Points: 182
  • MASTER OF PANIC
Just wait until the housing market collapses. These tariffs will impact a lot of people..esp our farmers
ďThe rim is looking bigger and bigger every game.Ē

 Paul Pierce

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #133 on: July 07, 2018, 05:14:35 PM »

Offline Greenback

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 660
  • Tommy Points: 55
  • "Strike if you will, but hear me." ~ Themistocles
Consider the effect this cost has on the economy and what would happen if there is a change to the tax code:

http://milnenews.com/2018/07/07/shocking-report-shows-how-much-illegals-have-cost-the-united-states/
Everyone wants truth on his side, not everyone wants to be on the side of truth.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #134 on: July 07, 2018, 05:17:19 PM »

Offline eja117

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18934
  • Tommy Points: 1236
Just wait until the housing market collapses. These tariffs will impact a lot of people..esp our farmers
Our farmers are subsidized so it's hard for me to feel really bad for them.