Author Topic: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?  (Read 1371 times)

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Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« on: December 14, 2017, 01:52:57 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Looking at the 8 teams that are in the playoffs as of today, I think those are the 8 teams that will make it.

Current lottery teams Grizzlies, Lakers, Utah, Clippers, Suns, Kings, Dallas. I guess I could see the Clippers making it if Blake and Milo and Galinari all get healthy something how, but that really is about it.

Overall, I think this is kind of bad news for the Lakers pick as it will create a real big race to the bottom in the west of the second half of the season as the playoffs become impossible for teams.

Thoughts?

Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2017, 02:06:50 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Utah and the Clippers both certainly have shots at it, but I do think the 8 teams currently in will be in the playoffs.  I think the East probably has 10 maybe 11 teams with a real shot at the playoffs, so it isn't much different.  There are just a lot of bad teams in the league right now for various reasons (i.e. injuries, youth, or just bad). 
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Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2017, 02:30:41 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Utah and the Clippers both certainly have shots at it, but I do think the 8 teams currently in will be in the playoffs.  I think the East probably has 10 maybe 11 teams with a real shot at the playoffs, so it isn't much different.  There are just a lot of bad teams in the league right now for various reasons (i.e. injuries, youth, or just bad).

Well if you think there is a pretty locked up shot at 8 or maybe 9 teams compared to 11 that is a very big difference in terms of what teams do in that range. I would also expect Portland, OKC and Denver to continue to pull away from those Clippers and Jazz teams. In the East I really have no idea who it could be. Detroit is in free fall. Miami has played uninspiring ball all season. Charlotte probably has the most talent of these teams in Walker, Batum, Lamb and Howard but have far and away the worst record. Orlando looked like they could stick around but have been playing god awful. The Knicks? The Nets? Some of these teams would really like to make the playoffs (You know the Nets would after the Celtics trade debacle and not owning their pick).

Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2017, 02:31:39 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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More teams try to make the 8th seed than try to tank. The while tanking thing is only true at the very bottom. Lakers are just plain bad

Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2017, 02:51:42 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Utah and the Clippers both certainly have shots at it, but I do think the 8 teams currently in will be in the playoffs.  I think the East probably has 10 maybe 11 teams with a real shot at the playoffs, so it isn't much different.  There are just a lot of bad teams in the league right now for various reasons (i.e. injuries, youth, or just bad).

Well if you think there is a pretty locked up shot at 8 or maybe 9 teams compared to 11 that is a very big difference in terms of what teams do in that range. I would also expect Portland, OKC and Denver to continue to pull away from those Clippers and Jazz teams. In the East I really have no idea who it could be. Detroit is in free fall. Miami has played uninspiring ball all season. Charlotte probably has the most talent of these teams in Walker, Batum, Lamb and Howard but have far and away the worst record. Orlando looked like they could stick around but have been playing god awful. The Knicks? The Nets? Some of these teams would really like to make the playoffs (You know the Nets would after the Celtics trade debacle and not owning their pick).
Going into the season, I figured there were 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes (Memphis being the other one) and 9 teams from the East (I would have replaced Charlotte with New York and Indiana).  I don't think much has really changed other than Charlotte being much worst than I would have thought, New York and Indiana being better (I figured they were mid 30 win teams and they still both might end up there, but so far are looking better), and Memphis being injured and out of contention as a result.  There were always going to be a lot of bad teams.  It was easily predictable.
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Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2017, 03:08:09 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Utah and the Clippers both certainly have shots at it, but I do think the 8 teams currently in will be in the playoffs.  I think the East probably has 10 maybe 11 teams with a real shot at the playoffs, so it isn't much different.  There are just a lot of bad teams in the league right now for various reasons (i.e. injuries, youth, or just bad).

Well if you think there is a pretty locked up shot at 8 or maybe 9 teams compared to 11 that is a very big difference in terms of what teams do in that range. I would also expect Portland, OKC and Denver to continue to pull away from those Clippers and Jazz teams. In the East I really have no idea who it could be. Detroit is in free fall. Miami has played uninspiring ball all season. Charlotte probably has the most talent of these teams in Walker, Batum, Lamb and Howard but have far and away the worst record. Orlando looked like they could stick around but have been playing god awful. The Knicks? The Nets? Some of these teams would really like to make the playoffs (You know the Nets would after the Celtics trade debacle and not owning their pick).
Going into the season, I figured there were 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes (Memphis being the other one) and 9 teams from the East (I would have replaced Charlotte with New York and Indiana).  I don't think much has really changed other than Charlotte being much worst than I would have thought, New York and Indiana being better (I figured they were mid 30 win teams and they still both might end up there, but so far are looking better), and Memphis being injured and out of contention as a result.  There were always going to be a lot of bad teams.  It was easily predictable.

Who were the 9 east teams you thought could make the playoffs? If you thought there were going to be 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes and now there are 9, and you thought there were 9 teams from the east and now there are 11-12 you were pretty far off. Humorous to call that "easily predictable" when you were off on both conferences by several teams.

Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2017, 03:35:29 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Utah and the Clippers both certainly have shots at it, but I do think the 8 teams currently in will be in the playoffs.  I think the East probably has 10 maybe 11 teams with a real shot at the playoffs, so it isn't much different.  There are just a lot of bad teams in the league right now for various reasons (i.e. injuries, youth, or just bad).

Well if you think there is a pretty locked up shot at 8 or maybe 9 teams compared to 11 that is a very big difference in terms of what teams do in that range. I would also expect Portland, OKC and Denver to continue to pull away from those Clippers and Jazz teams. In the East I really have no idea who it could be. Detroit is in free fall. Miami has played uninspiring ball all season. Charlotte probably has the most talent of these teams in Walker, Batum, Lamb and Howard but have far and away the worst record. Orlando looked like they could stick around but have been playing god awful. The Knicks? The Nets? Some of these teams would really like to make the playoffs (You know the Nets would after the Celtics trade debacle and not owning their pick).
Going into the season, I figured there were 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes (Memphis being the other one) and 9 teams from the East (I would have replaced Charlotte with New York and Indiana).  I don't think much has really changed other than Charlotte being much worst than I would have thought, New York and Indiana being better (I figured they were mid 30 win teams and they still both might end up there, but so far are looking better), and Memphis being injured and out of contention as a result.  There were always going to be a lot of bad teams.  It was easily predictable.

Who were the 9 east teams you thought could make the playoffs? If you thought there were going to be 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes and now there are 9, and you thought there were 9 teams from the east and now there are 11-12 you were pretty far off. Humorous to call that "easily predictable" when you were off on both conferences by several teams.
There aren't 9 in the West, there are 10 with legit playoff hopes still (the 8 in and Utah and LAC), and the 11th was Memphis who lost Conley (they were 7-5 in games Conley played and 7-6 overall when Conley went out i.e. a clear playoff contender).  In other words, but for an injury to Conley, the West has performed about as expected.

The East I thought there were 5 teams that were going to be clearly better than the other teams i.e. Boston, Cleveland, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Washington (all with at least upper 40's for wins) and then 4 teams that would realistically be in the mix for the last 3 spots all with low 40's wins - Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia, and Charlotte.  I also put NY and Indiana as the 10th and 11th teams in the conference and projected them to be mid 30 win teams.  Thus, both of them were reasonably close enough in expected wins that the playoffs weren't totally out of the question entering the season.  I figured Orlando would be next followed by Brooklyn, Chicago, and Atlanta.   Charlotte has disappointed and Indiana has been a lot better than expected, but otherwise not much has changed from what were fairly easy to predict team order.
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Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2017, 04:02:44 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Utah and the Clippers both certainly have shots at it, but I do think the 8 teams currently in will be in the playoffs.  I think the East probably has 10 maybe 11 teams with a real shot at the playoffs, so it isn't much different.  There are just a lot of bad teams in the league right now for various reasons (i.e. injuries, youth, or just bad).

Well if you think there is a pretty locked up shot at 8 or maybe 9 teams compared to 11 that is a very big difference in terms of what teams do in that range. I would also expect Portland, OKC and Denver to continue to pull away from those Clippers and Jazz teams. In the East I really have no idea who it could be. Detroit is in free fall. Miami has played uninspiring ball all season. Charlotte probably has the most talent of these teams in Walker, Batum, Lamb and Howard but have far and away the worst record. Orlando looked like they could stick around but have been playing god awful. The Knicks? The Nets? Some of these teams would really like to make the playoffs (You know the Nets would after the Celtics trade debacle and not owning their pick).
Going into the season, I figured there were 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes (Memphis being the other one) and 9 teams from the East (I would have replaced Charlotte with New York and Indiana).  I don't think much has really changed other than Charlotte being much worst than I would have thought, New York and Indiana being better (I figured they were mid 30 win teams and they still both might end up there, but so far are looking better), and Memphis being injured and out of contention as a result.  There were always going to be a lot of bad teams.  It was easily predictable.

Who were the 9 east teams you thought could make the playoffs? If you thought there were going to be 11 teams from the West with legit playoff hopes and now there are 9, and you thought there were 9 teams from the east and now there are 11-12 you were pretty far off. Humorous to call that "easily predictable" when you were off on both conferences by several teams.
There aren't 9 in the West, there are 10 with legit playoff hopes still (the 8 in and Utah and LAC), and the 11th was Memphis who lost Conley (they were 7-5 in games Conley played and 7-6 overall when Conley went out i.e. a clear playoff contender).  In other words, but for an injury to Conley, the West has performed about as expected.

The East I thought there were 5 teams that were going to be clearly better than the other teams i.e. Boston, Cleveland, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Washington (all with at least upper 40's for wins) and then 4 teams that would realistically be in the mix for the last 3 spots all with low 40's wins - Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia, and Charlotte.  I also put NY and Indiana as the 10th and 11th teams in the conference and projected them to be mid 30 win teams.  Thus, both of them were reasonably close enough in expected wins that the playoffs weren't totally out of the question entering the season.  I figured Orlando would be next followed by Brooklyn, Chicago, and Atlanta.   Charlotte has disappointed and Indiana has been a lot better than expected, but otherwise not much has changed from what were fairly easy to predict team order.

Well Brooklyn is already half way to their projected pre-season win total. Would have to think that is pretty surprising

Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2017, 05:58:10 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I wouldn't count out the Clippers. They're treading water and if they're still top 10 when Griffin eventually gets back, I can see them bumping someone, especially if they make a trade.

People like Utah, too, who is 0.5 games out right now. I don't have a lot of faith in that team but I can't count them out either.
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Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2017, 06:17:05 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I wouldn't count out the Clippers. They're treading water and if they're still top 10 when Griffin eventually gets back, I can see them bumping someone, especially if they make a trade.

People like Utah, too, who is 0.5 games out right now. I don't have a lot of faith in that team but I can't count them out either.

I would have agreed with you on Clippers if they had Beverly coming back. Galinari immediately reinjuring himself also doesn't help them. They would be pretty smart to trade Jordan and Williams for picks/young players. Considering Rivers can no longer force them to keep players I would be surprised if they kept them for the outside chance of a top 8 finish.

Re: Are west playoff teams pretty predictable?
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2018, 10:42:56 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Interesting what a couple of months changes.  the West is now wide open with the 2 at the top and then 8 teams within 4 games of the 3rd seed, while the East's 8 teams are all just about set (not their order of course, but who they are). 
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