Author Topic: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?  (Read 528 times)

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How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« on: December 14, 2017, 01:00:07 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I've been trying to figure this out for a while. Players consistently shoot poorly under CBS, but they still contribute to wins. Guys who couldn't even sniff the court on other teams due to their shooting are big cogs in our team's success.

Basic examples include Rozier and Smart from this and the last few years, but it goes beyond that. Shane Larkin is posting his first positive offensive/defensive rating of his career, even though he is shooting 35% from the floor. Ojeleye is a useful player even though he is averaging below 30% fg.

Previous to last year, Bradley, Crowder, and Thomas were all below average shooters, but it still resulted in wins for the team. At times the same was true of Olynyk and Turner and others.

This isn't veiled praise of CBS. This is a legit question. It seems like in the rest of the NBA there has almost always been a direct correlation between shooting percentages and player's impact on team success. Why isn't that true of us? We aren't getting a ton of free throws, which would help TS%. We shoot a lot of 3s which helps some, but that can't be the only reason. We are typically top 10 in the NBA in TO%, which helps too, but that can't be enough. We don't get a lot of offensive rebounds.

How do we outscore teams with that shoot better percentages than us? What's the secret?

Any thoughtful analysis would be helpful. Any stats I'm missing?

Edit: Here are the numbers
14-15 we were 21th in fg% and 27th in 3fg%
15-16 we were 24th in fg% and 28th in 3fg%
16-17 we were 16th in fg% and 14th in 3fg%
17-18 we are 19th in fg% and 14th in 3fg%

14-15 we were 22nd in efg% and 23rd in TS%
15-16 we were 24th in efg% and 21st in TS%
16-17 we were 9th in efg% and 6th in TS%
17-18 we are 14th in efg% and 11th in TS%
« Last Edit: December 14, 2017, 01:58:36 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »
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Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2017, 01:19:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Bradley had four seasons shooting over 35% from 3 before last year and is shooting over 39% both last season and this season. He has been a goodshooter for years.

IT fas been a good shooter his entire career having never had a TS% less than 56% and with a career 3PT% of around 37%.

For all Olynyk's other warts he was always a good shooter

Not sure where you are getting that they were not only good shooters last season.

Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2017, 01:43:22 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Bradley had four seasons shooting over 35% from 3 before last year and is shooting over 39% both last season and this season. He has been a goodshooter for years.

IT fas been a good shooter his entire career having never had a TS% less than 56% and with a career 3PT% of around 37%.

For all Olynyk's other warts he was always a good shooter

Not sure where you are getting that they were not only good shooters last season.

The first 1.5 years of IT-Bradley-Crowder was inefficient. People constantly wanted more shooting because our percentages were below average.

14-15 we were 21th in fg% and 27th in 3fg%
15-16 we were 24th in fg% and 28th in 3fg%
16-17 we were 16th in fg% and 14th in 3fg%
17-18 we are 19th in fg% and 14th in 3fg%

14-15 we were 22nd in efg% and 23rd in TS%
15-16 we were 24th in efg% and 21st in TS%
16-17 we were 9th in efg% and 6th in TS%
17-18 we are 14th in efg% and 11th in TS%

As a team, we have been below average in our shooting efficiency, but we are still winning.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2017, 01:57:18 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »
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Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2017, 01:53:00 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Without getting too sidetracked, Bradley was an average shooter in his time with us, but one that did not get to the free throw line, which inhibited his overall efficiency. He wasn't bad, but he was our best shooter, which may show how good we were as a team.

Thomas was always good at TS%, but he was not particularly efficient in his first 1.5 seasons in fg% and 3fg%.

Crowder has always been below average until last season, when his numbers spiked. I think we are seeing him regress to the mean now.

All of that said, as a team, our efficiency was poor to average, as the numbers above suggest.
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Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2017, 03:14:11 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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No thoughts on this? Any stat nerds that have a reason? Is it defense? Is it "winning plays"? Is it something else?
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Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2017, 01:42:33 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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The system is reliant on ball movement and players either taking the open shot or passing it for a better shot.  Because every player is a 'threat' to shoot, defenses must respect and switch/rotate to the shooter.  When the extra pass is made off the defense movement, that leads to better shots overall.  That's the gist of it.  There's an excellent article on why Marcus Smart is a positive to the Celtics offense even though he's a bad shooter.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/marcus-smart-shooting-percentage-stats-boston-celtics-vs-golden-state-warriors/

Mainly it boils down to Brad's system and players buying in to it.  It is paying off because everyone buys in.

Also I want to give Brad credit to his rotation against the Pistons.  Before Drummond ate us up in the post scoring 26 points in the Pistons victory.  But in our second matchup against the Pistons Drummond only scored 6 points on 20% shooting.  Celtics came away with a 91-81 victory.  Obviously Brad can make adjustments.  Baynes notably played 26 minutes that game, 10 minutes more than his season average.

A lot of what the Celtics have accomplished this year has to be credited to Stevens coaching and his system. #CoachOftheYear

Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2017, 02:12:39 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Bradley had four seasons shooting over 35% from 3 before last year and is shooting over 39% both last season and this season. He has been a goodshooter for years.

IT fas been a good shooter his entire career having never had a TS% less than 56% and with a career 3PT% of around 37%.

For all Olynyk's other warts he was always a good shooter

Not sure where you are getting that they were not only good shooters last season.

The first 1.5 years of IT-Bradley-Crowder was inefficient. People constantly wanted more shooting because our percentages were below average.

14-15 we were 21th in fg% and 27th in 3fg%
15-16 we were 24th in fg% and 28th in 3fg%
16-17 we were 16th in fg% and 14th in 3fg%
17-18 we are 19th in fg% and 14th in 3fg%

14-15 we were 22nd in efg% and 23rd in TS%
15-16 we were 24th in efg% and 21st in TS%
16-17 we were 9th in efg% and 6th in TS%
17-18 we are 14th in efg% and 11th in TS%

As a team, we have been below average in our shooting efficiency, but we are still winning.
an interesting question and a good analysis. thanks and a tp.

perhaps, maybe, the answer lies not TEAM  efg%, but with having 2-4 very good shooters and having the offense flow through them at crucial periods.

that is, yes, let smart et al take bad shots, eventually it opens up the floor for better shots by the good shooters. so, maybe, a few good shooters carry the team, but the team overall has medicore shooting percentages.

just a guess.
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Re: How Does CBS turn inefficiency into wins?
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2017, 03:41:58 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
17-18 we are 14th in efg% and 11th in TS%

Amazing given our bench is dead last 30th  in FG% and 29th in 3p%

https://stats.nba.com/teams/traditional/?sort=FG_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StarterBench=Bench