Author Topic: Making a move for George  (Read 3536 times)

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Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2017, 07:59:33 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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In a vacuum, it's a no brainer. Roster depth wouldn't be that big of a problem either. We could sign guys like Monta Ellis, Deron, Barbosa, Gerald Green, Sully etc. Hopefully, the DPE guy will provide some depth as well.

Irving - Rozier - (Kadeem Allen)
Brown - ? ? ? - (Jabari Bird)
George - Semi - Hayward
Tatum - Theis
Horford - Baynes

Having said that, if PG becomes available (btw that's a big if), I bet it's gonna be a difficult desicion for Danny to make. Imo, it all depends on :

1. whether Danny feels confident that PG is gonna re-sign with us next summer

For instance, what happens if LeBron elects to sign with the Lakers? Danny has zero control over LeBron's decision making. If LeBron wants to team up with PG in LA, it seems likely that there is nothing we can do to keep PG in Boston.

2. whether Wyc and the owners would be willing to pay the lux tax

2018-19
Hayward $31,214,295
George $30,300,000 (cap projected to be $101 million, 8-year veteran --> 30% of the cap)
Horford $28,928,710
Kyrie $20,099,189

That's $110,542,195 for 4 players. Not to mention, things are gonna get even worse in 2019-20 when Kyrie is likely to opt out.

George $32,724,000 (we would have his Bird rights --> 8% annual raises)
Hayward $32,700,690
Kyrie $32,400,000 (cap projected to be $108 million, 8-year veteran --> 30% of the cap)
Horford $30,123,015

SUM : $127,947,705 for 4 players!!!! The lux tax is gonna be huge!!!! Not my money of course, just saying that the owners may have second thoughts about the whole thing. I mean, the Warriors may very well be the best team in NBA history. Assuming we trade for PG and then we re-sign him, would we be the favorites in a 7-game series against them?

(For what it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 09:06:50 PM by Jvalin »

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2017, 09:07:54 PM »

Offline Granath

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(For what's it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)

Don't count on it. The tax becomes too severe too quickly.

Say the total salary is $150m with a cap of $100m. That puts the tax starting at $120. You're only $30m over, right? How bad can it be?

The answer is BAD. Really bad. For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:

$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.

That's a massive $85m tax bill. Forbes estimates Celtic revenue at $200m but that may be a bit low after the last TV deal. Call it $225m and you realize how large that $85m penalty is. Add in the salary of $150m plus the tax and you're $10m over the total team revenue! That's about -$70m in operating income. While the franchise value would undoubtedly go up some, they're already #4 or #5 in the league estimated at $2.2b. Given the market size there's not a lot of room for growth.

Then there's the repeater penalty - a taxpayer in 3 of the previous 4 years. In the above scenario, $30m equates to a incredible $115m penalty. At that rate the team - before anything else is paid - is in the hole $40m to start and you're looking at -$100m in operating income.

Ownership might not care about making much money year-to-year given that the franchise was purchased for $360m back in 2002 and is now worth 7 times that number. But losing $100m a year is something they're not going to do.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2017, 11:21:43 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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(For what's it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)

Don't count on it. The tax becomes too severe too quickly.

Say the total salary is $150m with a cap of $100m. That puts the tax starting at $120. You're only $30m over, right? How bad can it be?

The answer is BAD. Really bad. For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:

$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.

That's a massive $85m tax bill. Forbes estimates Celtic revenue at $200m but that may be a bit low after the last TV deal. Call it $225m and you realize how large that $85m penalty is. Add in the salary of $150m plus the tax and you're $10m over the total team revenue! That's about -$70m in operating income. While the franchise value would undoubtedly go up some, they're already #4 or #5 in the league estimated at $2.2b. Given the market size there's not a lot of room for growth.

Then there's the repeater penalty - a taxpayer in 3 of the previous 4 years. In the above scenario, $30m equates to a incredible $115m penalty. At that rate the team - before anything else is paid - is in the hole $40m to start and you're looking at -$100m in operating income.

Ownership might not care about making much money year-to-year given that the franchise was purchased for $360m back in 2002 and is now worth 7 times that number. But losing $100m a year is something they're not going to do.
Well, it may be even worse than that.

Assuming we trade for PG, our payroll in 2019-20 will look like this :

1. George $32,724,000
2. Hayward $32,700,690
3. Kyrie $32,400,000
4. Horford $30,123,015
5. Tatum $7,830,000
6. Brown $6,534,829
7. Ojeleye $1,618,520
8. Celtics 2018 pick : let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #29 --> $1,895,400
9. Lakers/Kings pick : since we got both Brown and Tatum at #3, let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #3 once again 8) (in the 2019 draft) --> $7,758,000
Demetrius Jackson $92,857

(I got the rookie scale numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2020

SUM : $153,677,311 

I'm not including Yabu and Nader cause based on this scenario they are part of the package for PG. Not including other future picks either (Clips, Grizzlies, our own pick in 2019). Let's just assume we fill out the rest of the roster with vet minimum guys and a couple of MLE guys as well.

10. $8,568,000 (Non-Taxpayer MLE in 2018-19) Even if we trade for PG, most likely we are gonna finish the season under the apron.
11. $5,659,000 (Taxpayer MLE in 2019-20)
12. $2,537,964 (10-year vet)
13. $2,537,964
14. $2,537,964
15. $2,537,964

(I got the MLE numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

SUM : $178,056,167  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If projections hold, the luxury tax threshold in 2019-20 will fall at approximately $129.2 million.
https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/9/28/16382498/nba-salary-cap-projections-2018-2019

$178,056,167 - $129,200,000 = $48,856,167

$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
$23.75m for the next $5m.
$26.25m for the next $5m.
$28.75m for the next $5m.
$31.25m for the next $5m.

7.5 + 8.75 + 12.5 + 16.25 + 18.75 + 21.25 + 23.75 + 26.25 + 28.75 + ~24.1 = 187.85

We are talking about $187,851,043.75 in luxury tax!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So yeah, I guess we won't trade for PG after all. :P :P
« Last Edit: December 13, 2017, 12:10:27 AM by Jvalin »

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #33 on: December 13, 2017, 12:30:18 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Simple.  Money doesn't work for George.  Hell, we might struggle to keep Marcus Smart.  No less George.  So yeah pass.   Save that cap room to re-up Kyrie.  He obviously fits our franchise like a glove so far.

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #34 on: December 13, 2017, 01:40:31 AM »

Offline iadera

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Smart will be gone at any scenario. It's only about trade or walk.

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #35 on: December 13, 2017, 03:41:20 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13

An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon

Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #36 on: December 13, 2017, 05:32:50 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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This is a non-issue because Ainge is not going to give up assets for half a year rental. 

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #37 on: December 13, 2017, 06:25:25 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13

An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon

Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
I do not see OKC doing that. They could for sure find another offer that is better than injury prone Jabari Parker (who is due for a payday) and Teletovic, a 32 year old overpaid mediocre stretch 4.

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #38 on: December 13, 2017, 06:42:34 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13

An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon

Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
I do not see OKC doing that. They could for sure find another offer that is better than injury prone Jabari Parker (who is due for a payday) and Teletovic, a 32 year old overpaid mediocre stretch 4.
Your points are true.
The question is could they nab anyone near Jabaris upside for a basically PG rental?
I am not sure. And wings are prized, especially if they are talented.
As for Mirza, he only has one year left on a deal and he can always shoot well. So, it's not as bad of a deal as you would think.
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #39 on: December 13, 2017, 07:15:52 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Seems hard to fit him here financially.
Milwaukee is my dream destination for him!
Up and coming team, that has an alpha already so he can fit in nicely as a 2nd violin.
Something like Teletović/Jabari for PG13

An intriguing lineup of:
Bledsoe
Snell
P. George
Middleton
Giannis
6th man Brogdon

Point center Giannis sorrounded with the spacing and switchiness is what I'd like to see.
Who says no?
I do not see OKC doing that. They could for sure find another offer that is better than injury prone Jabari Parker (who is due for a payday) and Teletovic, a 32 year old overpaid mediocre stretch 4.
Your points are true.
The question is could they nab anyone near Jabaris upside for a basically PG rental?
I am not sure. And wings are prized, especially if they are talented.
As for Mirza, he only has one year left on a deal and he can always shoot well. So, it's not as bad of a deal as you would think.
His upside is there for sure, but the risk with his injury history is immense. Who knows what they can squeeze out of another team. Indy got a really good package (to the surprise of many), maybe OKC can do the same

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #40 on: December 13, 2017, 08:22:00 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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This is a non-issue because Ainge is not going to give up assets for half a year rental.

Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental? So why wouldn't he still have interest when George's value has decreased? I mean look at the rumored offer below. More than likely the unnamed starter was Bradley, so you're probably talking about Bradley, Crowder, LAC 1st rd pick, Memphis 1st rd pick, and one of our 1st rd picks down the road.

Quote
The Indiana Pacers reportedly turned down a bounty of draft picks and players from the Boston Celtics on draft night in a proposed package that would have sent Paul George to the reigning Atlantic Division champions.

According to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman and the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, the Celtics offered three first-round picks and two starters in exchange for George at the 2017 NBA draft on June 22.

Goodman added that Boston did not include the unprotected 2018 Brooklyn Nets first-round pick or the 2018 Los Angeles Lakers/2019 Sacramento Kings first-round selections (acquired through Philadelphia) in the proposal.

Furthermore, Goodman reported Jae Crowder was one of the two starters Boston was willing to part with to snag George.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2017, 08:33:20 AM by Eddie20 »

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #41 on: December 13, 2017, 09:16:19 AM »

Offline Moranis

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This is a non-issue because Ainge is not going to give up assets for half a year rental.

Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental? So why wouldn't he still have interest when George's value has decreased? I mean look at the rumored offer below. More than likely the unnamed starter was Bradley, so you're probably talking about Bradley, Crowder, LAC 1st rd pick, Memphis 1st rd pick, and one of our 1st rd picks down the road.

Quote
The Indiana Pacers reportedly turned down a bounty of draft picks and players from the Boston Celtics on draft night in a proposed package that would have sent Paul George to the reigning Atlantic Division champions.

According to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman and the Boston Globe's Adam Himmelsbach, the Celtics offered three first-round picks and two starters in exchange for George at the 2017 NBA draft on June 22.

Goodman added that Boston did not include the unprotected 2018 Brooklyn Nets first-round pick or the 2018 Los Angeles Lakers/2019 Sacramento Kings first-round selections (acquired through Philadelphia) in the proposal.

Furthermore, Goodman reported Jae Crowder was one of the two starters Boston was willing to part with to snag George.
It was widely reported that Crowder and Smart were the players Indy wanted, along with the 3 non-premium 1st's (Boston's 2018 1st was almost certainly one of them).  Boston would have had to move someone else though as Crowder and Smart together weren't enough salary for George

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #42 on: December 13, 2017, 09:18:14 AM »

Offline Moranis

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(For what's it's worth, I believe the owners are gonna pay whatever it takes as long as we have a legit shot to win the title.)

Don't count on it. The tax becomes too severe too quickly.

Say the total salary is $150m with a cap of $100m. That puts the tax starting at $120. You're only $30m over, right? How bad can it be?

The answer is BAD. Really bad. For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:

$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.

That's a massive $85m tax bill. Forbes estimates Celtic revenue at $200m but that may be a bit low after the last TV deal. Call it $225m and you realize how large that $85m penalty is. Add in the salary of $150m plus the tax and you're $10m over the total team revenue! That's about -$70m in operating income. While the franchise value would undoubtedly go up some, they're already #4 or #5 in the league estimated at $2.2b. Given the market size there's not a lot of room for growth.

Then there's the repeater penalty - a taxpayer in 3 of the previous 4 years. In the above scenario, $30m equates to a incredible $115m penalty. At that rate the team - before anything else is paid - is in the hole $40m to start and you're looking at -$100m in operating income.

Ownership might not care about making much money year-to-year given that the franchise was purchased for $360m back in 2002 and is now worth 7 times that number. But losing $100m a year is something they're not going to do.
Well, it may be even worse than that.

Assuming we trade for PG, our payroll in 2019-20 will look like this :

1. George $32,724,000
2. Hayward $32,700,690
3. Kyrie $32,400,000
4. Horford $30,123,015
5. Tatum $7,830,000
6. Brown $6,534,829
7. Ojeleye $1,618,520
8. Celtics 2018 pick : let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #29 --> $1,895,400
9. Lakers/Kings pick : since we got both Brown and Tatum at #3, let's assume we keep the pick and we end up with #3 once again 8) (in the 2019 draft) --> $7,758,000
Demetrius Jackson $92,857

(I got the rookie scale numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2020

SUM : $153,677,311 

I'm not including Yabu and Nader cause based on this scenario they are part of the package for PG. Not including other future picks either (Clips, Grizzlies, our own pick in 2019). Let's just assume we fill out the rest of the roster with vet minimum guys and a couple of MLE guys as well.

10. $8,568,000 (Non-Taxpayer MLE in 2018-19) Even if we trade for PG, most likely we are gonna finish the season under the apron.
11. $5,659,000 (Taxpayer MLE in 2019-20)
12. $2,537,964 (10-year vet)
13. $2,537,964
14. $2,537,964
15. $2,537,964

(I got the MLE numbers from here)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

SUM : $178,056,167  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If projections hold, the luxury tax threshold in 2019-20 will fall at approximately $129.2 million.
https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/9/28/16382498/nba-salary-cap-projections-2018-2019

$178,056,167 - $129,200,000 = $48,856,167

$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
$23.75m for the next $5m.
$26.25m for the next $5m.
$28.75m for the next $5m.
$31.25m for the next $5m.

7.5 + 8.75 + 12.5 + 16.25 + 18.75 + 21.25 + 23.75 + 26.25 + 28.75 + ~24.1 = 187.85

We are talking about $187,851,043.75 in luxury tax!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So yeah, I guess we won't trade for PG after all. :P :P
I think Boston would move Horford if it signed George long term.

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #43 on: December 13, 2017, 01:30:28 PM »

Offline KGBirdBias

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I think the train has left the station on PG13. If the Cavs want to go for it this year and get him, let them. We have to play the long game now that we've seen Tatum and Brown.

I wouldn't mind making moves for Ellis, LouWill, Bogut or Favors.

Re: Making a move for George
« Reply #44 on: December 14, 2017, 07:36:31 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Wasn't he willing to give MORE assets for a full year rental? So why wouldn't he still have interest when George's value has decreased?

Because, we do not want to rent a guy who is going to bolt to the Lakers.  Also, Ainge has something that a lot of people lack called common sense.  Note I am not saying you lack or anyone in this thread.   But who is more value down the road?  George or the guys who are more likely stay or be here on rookie contracts.