Author Topic: Smart is similar to prime Dennis Johnson according to FiveThirtyEight Carmelo  (Read 5101 times)

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Offline ThePaintedArea

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/marcus-smart/

It projects him to be a future all star. Also One of his performance comparisons of 1979 DJ, the year he was named to all-defensive 1st team, and won finals mvp.

None of the similarity scores is very strong; his strongest comp is Lionel Hollins' 77/78 season, but the similarity is only 58. The comp with DJ's 78/79 is even lower at 50.

I don't have the patience to fully understand the methodology, but it looks like the similarity scores are averaging three seasons, so in that case the DJ comp would be measuring from 76/77 to 78/79.  Likewise, I'm not advocating for this method.

Any statistic has its limitations. In my opinion, comps are intriguing; biometric comps especially look like they've got a potential to be predictive (the usual height/weight/wingspan/standing reach numbers probably won't give you enough, though...).

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

Offline Monkhouse

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

Could you explain what you mean?
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Offline saltlover

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

That was my opinion too, but then I re-read and decided he was only talking about shooting improvement, which unfortunately hasn’t been there.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 11:52:38 AM by saltlover »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

Could you explain what you mean?

I'll pick out a couple of things:

1) He's progressively become a more accomplished playmaker. This is reflected in his assist %; when Brad gave him more responsibility in year 3 he jumped from about 16% to 22%, a substantial increase. He's currently at 25.5% this year, though it's a small sample size.

2) He's scoring more at the line. Both his Free Throw rate and his Free Throw % went up from year one to year three. FTr from .216 to .314 to .334; .300 is a good benchmark for effectiveness in the NBA. Likewise, his FT shooting went from D-minus (.646) to B-plus (.777) to A (.812).

We could add more things. His team defense lagged his individual defense in his first year especially, but even in his second year he was helping one pass away and other no-no's.  In his third season he was really clicking as a team defender.

Etc.


It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

That was my opinion too, but then I re-read and decided he was only talking about shooting improvement, which unfortunately hasn’t been there.

I'd agree with you, if we're only talking about FG shooting. As I pointed out above, his FT shooting progressed from marginal to excellent, while the number of trips to the line increased.

I don't want to minimize the importance of shooting (or maybe we should say, eFG%) - it's the most important skill that a basketball player can have. But this is basketball, not HORSE.

Offline Monkhouse

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

Could you explain what you mean?

I'll pick out a couple of things:

1) He's progressively become a more accomplished playmaker. This is reflected in his assist %; when Brad gave him more responsibility in year 3 he jumped from about 16% to 22%, a substantial increase. He's currently at 25.5% this year, though it's a small sample size.

2) He's scoring more at the line. Both his Free Throw rate and his Free Throw % went up from year one to year three. FTr from .216 to .314 to .334; .300 is a good benchmark for effectiveness in the NBA. Likewise, his FT shooting went from D-minus (.646) to B-plus (.777) to A (.812).

We could add more things. His team defense lagged his individual defense in his first year especially, but even in his second year he was helping one pass away and other no-no's.  In his third season he was really clicking as a team defender.

Etc.


It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

That was my opinion too, but then I re-read and decided he was only talking about shooting improvement, which unfortunately hasn’t been there.

I'd agree with you, if we're only talking about FG shooting. As I pointed out above, his FT shooting progressed from marginal to excellent, while the number of trips to the line increased.

I don't want to minimize the importance of shooting (or maybe we should say, eFG%) - it's the most important skill that a basketball player can have. But this is basketball, not HORSE.

So you're agreeing with me then lol.

If anyone who knows me on these forums, knows how much love I have for MS-36.

But all solid points, like I've said continously on these boards, Smart is the closest we have to a Draymond Green in guard form. I don't think I've ever see anyone like him, who can constantly break down defenses, and even force players to contest his shots. Even if he doesn't make his shots, he's still constantly viewed as a shooter, which is incredibly important.
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Offline ThePaintedArea

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

Could you explain what you mean?

I'll pick out a couple of things:

1) He's progressively become a more accomplished playmaker. This is reflected in his assist %; when Brad gave him more responsibility in year 3 he jumped from about 16% to 22%, a substantial increase. He's currently at 25.5% this year, though it's a small sample size.

2) He's scoring more at the line. Both his Free Throw rate and his Free Throw % went up from year one to year three. FTr from .216 to .314 to .334; .300 is a good benchmark for effectiveness in the NBA. Likewise, his FT shooting went from D-minus (.646) to B-plus (.777) to A (.812).

We could add more things. His team defense lagged his individual defense in his first year especially, but even in his second year he was helping one pass away and other no-no's.  In his third season he was really clicking as a team defender.

Etc.


It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

That was my opinion too, but then I re-read and decided he was only talking about shooting improvement, which unfortunately hasn’t been there.

I'd agree with you, if we're only talking about FG shooting. As I pointed out above, his FT shooting progressed from marginal to excellent, while the number of trips to the line increased.

I don't want to minimize the importance of shooting (or maybe we should say, eFG%) - it's the most important skill that a basketball player can have. But this is basketball, not HORSE.

So you're agreeing with me then lol.

If anyone who knows me on these forums, knows how much love I have for MS-36.

But all solid points, like I've said continously on these boards, Smart is the closest we have to a Draymond Green in guard form. I don't think I've ever see anyone like him, who can constantly break down defenses, and even force players to contest his shots. Even if he doesn't make his shots, he's still constantly viewed as a shooter, which is incredibly important.

Aha. Looks like I am agreeing with you.  I love the guy, too. Hoping that the market for him comes down in the Celtics' sweet spot.

Offline dysgenic

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Please- Smart couldn't carry DJs jock strap.

DJ was a great, great player.


Offline Monkhouse

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Lets NOT try to re-write history here.  DJ couldn't shoot for crap for many years until late in his career he was good from the foul line.  Period.  So, yes, DJ did get better and he became more selective after being in the league for several years.  And I'm sure we all recall Avery when for the his 1st 2 or 3 years he couldn't hit the side of a barn if he was standing 15 feet away.  So, quit trying to write-off Smart.

It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

Could you explain what you mean?

I'll pick out a couple of things:

1) He's progressively become a more accomplished playmaker. This is reflected in his assist %; when Brad gave him more responsibility in year 3 he jumped from about 16% to 22%, a substantial increase. He's currently at 25.5% this year, though it's a small sample size.

2) He's scoring more at the line. Both his Free Throw rate and his Free Throw % went up from year one to year three. FTr from .216 to .314 to .334; .300 is a good benchmark for effectiveness in the NBA. Likewise, his FT shooting went from D-minus (.646) to B-plus (.777) to A (.812).

We could add more things. His team defense lagged his individual defense in his first year especially, but even in his second year he was helping one pass away and other no-no's.  In his third season he was really clicking as a team defender.

Etc.


It's been 3 years, and Smart hasn't really improved ...

You're seeing something different from me.

That was my opinion too, but then I re-read and decided he was only talking about shooting improvement, which unfortunately hasn’t been there.

I'd agree with you, if we're only talking about FG shooting. As I pointed out above, his FT shooting progressed from marginal to excellent, while the number of trips to the line increased.

I don't want to minimize the importance of shooting (or maybe we should say, eFG%) - it's the most important skill that a basketball player can have. But this is basketball, not HORSE.

So you're agreeing with me then lol.

If anyone who knows me on these forums, knows how much love I have for MS-36.

But all solid points, like I've said continously on these boards, Smart is the closest we have to a Draymond Green in guard form. I don't think I've ever see anyone like him, who can constantly break down defenses, and even force players to contest his shots. Even if he doesn't make his shots, he's still constantly viewed as a shooter, which is incredibly important.

Aha. Looks like I am agreeing with you.  I love the guy, too. Hoping that the market for him comes down in the Celtics' sweet spot.

Haha, same here. Smart's historically bad shooting is a blessing in disguise for us... I feel horrible for how much hard work and trimming down, Smart had done in the off-season, but if it cuts down his market price and value around the league, then I'm okay with that... Until he shoots 36-38% 3PA next year :)
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Can't define how I be dropping these mockeries."

Is the glass half-full or half-empty?
It's based on your perspective, quite simply
We're the same and we're not; know what I'm saying? Listen
Son, I ain't better than you, I just think different

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Please- Smart couldn't carry DJs jock strap.

Oh, he could probably manage that. Shooting .333 from the arc, on the other hand...

DJ was a great, great player.

I recall Larry Bird saying that DJ was the best player he ever played with. That might be all the epitaph he needs.

Offline Roy H.

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Comparing a 4th year player who shoots 35% to a Hall of Famer seems off.
Joe Fulks, Mo Stokes, Jim Pollard, Dugie Martin, Andy Philip, Bob Cousy and a bunch of others stopped by to say hello.

Lol. Because the 60s are completely comparable to 2017.  Can you shed insight on the playing style of those guys, particularly relative to Smart? How was their FG% relative to their peers?

Do you even have a point, or do you just want to be “that guy”?
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 07:34:08 PM by Roy H. »


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Offline nickagneta

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So I guess most in this thread never saw DJ play in Seattle and don't realize just how different their style of play is. Early DJ was an athletic freak, slasher, high flying dunker. He scored in much different ways than Smart and was more efficient. Also, DJ didn't even defend like Smart in those younger days. Smart uses his strength to bulldog people. DJ used his speed and lateral quickness to bother the defender up in his face, kinda like Avery Bradley.

Young DJ was just not close to being a good comparison for Marcus Smart.

Offline liam

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Please- Smart couldn't carry DJs jock strap.

DJ was a great, great player.

DJ was a finals MVP. End of conversation.

Offline Dino Pitino

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So I guess most in this thread never saw DJ play in Seattle and don't realize just how different their style of play is. Early DJ was an athletic freak, slasher, high flying dunker. He scored in much different ways than Smart and was more efficient. Also, DJ didn't even defend like Smart in those younger days. Smart uses his strength to bulldog people. DJ used his speed and lateral quickness to bother the defender up in his face, kinda like Avery Bradley.

Young DJ was just not close to being a good comparison for Marcus Smart.

What if late-prime DJ is the apt comparison? Celtics-era DJ.
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Offline nickagneta

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So I guess most in this thread never saw DJ play in Seattle and don't realize just how different their style of play is. Early DJ was an athletic freak, slasher, high flying dunker. He scored in much different ways than Smart and was more efficient. Also, DJ didn't even defend like Smart in those younger days. Smart uses his strength to bulldog people. DJ used his speed and lateral quickness to bother the defender up in his face, kinda like Avery Bradley.

Young DJ was just not close to being a good comparison for Marcus Smart.

What if late-prime DJ is the apt comparison? Celtics-era DJ.
So you want to compare Smart to a much older, slower, less athletic, less good defensively but better offensively player?