Author Topic: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right  (Read 2796 times)

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Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2017, 07:19:48 AM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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I also feel a lot is their mature/intelligent personalities, coupled with a winning environment.

I absolutely agree that is has a lot to do with how mature they seem.

Marcus in hindsight looks like a strange pick. He was volatile in college. Perhaps Danny saw something else in Marcus.
marcus smart was the consensus #6 pick. After him and randle the pickings were slim

Looking back, danny did well. No one except Gary Harris and maybe Rodney Hood, capela broke out. That draft was top heavy and smart was a great pick compared to vonleh/stauskas/mcbuckets and  the other lotto guys

Eh, Smart was an alright pick at best. 

Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.


Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #16 on: December 03, 2017, 07:32:53 AM »

Offline Darío SpanishFan

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I also feel a lot is their mature/intelligent personalities, coupled with a winning environment.

I absolutely agree that is has a lot to do with how mature they seem.

Marcus in hindsight looks like a strange pick. He was volatile in college. Perhaps Danny saw something else in Marcus.
marcus smart was the consensus #6 pick. After him and randle the pickings were slim

Looking back, danny did well. No one except Gary Harris and maybe Rodney Hood, capela broke out. That draft was top heavy and smart was a great pick compared to vonleh/stauskas/mcbuckets and  the other lotto guys

Eh, Smart was an alright pick at best. 

Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.

With Olynyk over Giannis-A and Smart over the Balcanic players, Ainge learned a lesson. Go for what you feel instead of the safest picks.

So he chose Rozier, Brown and Tatum afterwards.

He can't be perfect  :laugh:

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2017, 08:50:46 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I also feel a lot is their mature/intelligent personalities, coupled with a winning environment.

I absolutely agree that is has a lot to do with how mature they seem.

Marcus in hindsight looks like a strange pick. He was volatile in college. Perhaps Danny saw something else in Marcus.
marcus smart was the consensus #6 pick. After him and randle the pickings were slim

Looking back, danny did well. No one except Gary Harris and maybe Rodney Hood, capela broke out. That draft was top heavy and smart was a great pick compared to vonleh/stauskas/mcbuckets and  the other lotto guys

Eh, Smart was an alright pick at best. 

Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.

That's not a game that is fairly played. Every draft there are guys taken late that are better than guys taken early. That means every GM, but one (and sometimes him too), skipped on that player because of workouts, concerns, performance, etc.

Sometimes guys just end up being good in spite of every scouts information of them before the draft. Some of those on the list are outliers.

A better question to ask is how Marcus has performed compared to other 6th picks.

Here is an article with the estimated values of draft picks.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/index616a.html?p=2740

Here are Marcus' stats.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Marcus is on pace to finish at 13 win shares by the end of his rookie contract, and the estimated win shares for a sixth pick over his rookie contract is 15. He's been a good not great pick. 

By the way, I'd take Marcus over Payton, Nurkic, Lavine, Warren, Dinwiddie, Clarkson, Randle, and Hood today, and I'd definitely take him over those guys in a 7 game playoff series.

Harris, Capella, and Jokic are the only ones that I'd probably take over Marcus today, but no one thought those three would be as good as they are today. NBAdraft.net projected Capella as Ian Mahinmi, Harris was OJ Mayo, and Jokic was Vucevic. I don't respect NBAdraft.net a lot, but these were the most positive takes on these guys. There's a reason they were drafted later.

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #18 on: December 03, 2017, 08:56:17 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.
Not interested in any of these over Smart. Except perhaps Jokic.
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Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #19 on: December 03, 2017, 09:20:31 AM »

Offline cman88

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smart has turned into a rotation role-player which is what you should hope for at the minimum with a top 5 pick.

But, Jaylen and tatum were too great choices. Jaylen brown pick was panned at the time...but the kid has a hard work ethic and has improved every area of his game. if he keeps it up I expect another large jump next year.

and Tatum clearly so far is better than the 2 drafted ahead of him. same as jaylen has a strong work ethic and should improve. but at 19 the kid is already a rotation level Small forward averagine 13-15ppg. he is going to be special in a year

we may not win a championship this year, but the way danny has set up the team with the draft picks and free agents...we are looking at a starting lineup next year of Kyrie/brown/hayward/tatum/horford....and that is with another year of brown/tatum development....that lineup could potentially be Golden state good.

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2017, 09:50:41 AM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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I also feel a lot is their mature/intelligent personalities, coupled with a winning environment.

I absolutely agree that is has a lot to do with how mature they seem.

Marcus in hindsight looks like a strange pick. He was volatile in college. Perhaps Danny saw something else in Marcus.
marcus smart was the consensus #6 pick. After him and randle the pickings were slim

Looking back, danny did well. No one except Gary Harris and maybe Rodney Hood, capela broke out. That draft was top heavy and smart was a great pick compared to vonleh/stauskas/mcbuckets and  the other lotto guys

Eh, Smart was an alright pick at best. 

Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.

That's not a game that is fairly played. Every draft there are guys taken late that are better than guys taken early. That means every GM, but one (and sometimes him too), skipped on that player because of workouts, concerns, performance, etc.

Sometimes guys just end up being good in spite of every scouts information of them before the draft. Some of those on the list are outliers.

A better question to ask is how Marcus has performed compared to other 6th picks.

Here is an article with the estimated values of draft picks.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/index616a.html?p=2740

Here are Marcus' stats.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Marcus is on pace to finish at 13 win shares by the end of his rookie contract, and the estimated win shares for a sixth pick over his rookie contract is 15. He's been a good not great pick. 

By the way, I'd take Marcus over Payton, Nurkic, Lavine, Warren, Dinwiddie, Clarkson, Randle, and Hood today, and I'd definitely take him over those guys in a 7 game playoff series.

Harris, Capella, and Jokic are the only ones that I'd probably take over Marcus today, but no one thought those three would be as good as they are today. NBAdraft.net projected Capella as Ian Mahinmi, Harris was OJ Mayo, and Jokic was Vucevic. I don't respect NBAdraft.net a lot, but these were the most positive takes on these guys. There's a reason they were drafted later.

I had to chuckle.  Win shares?  Really?  Don't role-players on every winning team have inflated WIN shares?  Kelly Olynyk - for example - had more win shares (14.6) than your generous projection of 13 for Smart at the end of his rookie contract (12 is more realistic).  Are you arguing Kelly Olynyk deserved to be the 6th overall pick?       

No, the important thing for you to realize is that Brad Stevens has a way of maximizing the talent of career Role-Players (ie Marcus Smart), and Marcus Smart happened to play with, Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford, and then Kyrie Irving all in their primes which lead the team to more wins and hence a trickle-down effect of more win shares for the middle class players like Smart.

This is literally the only example in history where trickle-down actually worked for any middle class.     

Thus endeth the lesson.

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2017, 11:09:52 AM »

Online droopdog7

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I also feel a lot is their mature/intelligent personalities, coupled with a winning environment.

I absolutely agree that is has a lot to do with how mature they seem.

Marcus in hindsight looks like a strange pick. He was volatile in college. Perhaps Danny saw something else in Marcus.
marcus smart was the consensus #6 pick. After him and randle the pickings were slim

Looking back, danny did well. No one except Gary Harris and maybe Rodney Hood, capela broke out. That draft was top heavy and smart was a great pick compared to vonleh/stauskas/mcbuckets and  the other lotto guys

Eh, Smart was an alright pick at best. 

Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.
Yeah, you’re misunderstanding the point.  BEFORE the draft smart was the consensus pick (more or less).  Can’t play the game after the fact.

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2017, 12:05:32 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Danny has gotten a lot of grief on this site for his drafting acumen, but he really has hit on his top 6 picks with Smart, Brown and Tatum. I think this goes a long way to explaining that your draft record definitely correlates to where you are picking.

That said, Danny was brilliant in trading down for Tatum while getting another, most probable, lottery pick while landing the best player in the draft. I think the last couple of years has shown that his ability to recognize talent is pretty awesome.

If Tatum turns into the type of player he looks like he might be (perennial All-Star, maybe All NBA) and the Celtics get a top-5 pick from the Lakers/Sacramento pick, that trade down from #1 will be the greatest move of his career, eclipsing the Brooklyn trade.


Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2017, 12:34:21 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Danny has gotten a lot of grief on this site for his drafting acumen, but he really has hit on his top 6 picks with Smart, Brown and Tatum. I think this goes a long way to explaining that your draft record definitely correlates to where you are picking.

That said, Danny was brilliant in trading down for Tatum while getting another, most probable, lottery pick while landing the best player in the draft. I think the last couple of years has shown that his ability to recognize talent is pretty awesome.


If Tatum turns into the type of player he looks like he might be (perennial All-Star, maybe All NBA) and the Celtics get a top-5 pick from the Lakers/Sacramento pick, that trade down from #1 will be the greatest move of his career, eclipsing the Brooklyn trade.

But but but...the Tatum trade wouldn’t have been possible without the BKN trade (which wouldn’t have been possible without the original KG trade, etc  :P ) So BKN trade will forever win out!

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2017, 12:35:33 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Danny has gotten a lot of grief on this site for his drafting acumen, but he really has hit on his top 6 picks with Smart, Brown and Tatum. I think this goes a long way to explaining that your draft record definitely correlates to where you are picking.

That said, Danny was brilliant in trading down for Tatum while getting another, most probable, lottery pick while landing the best player in the draft. I think the last couple of years has shown that his ability to recognize talent is pretty awesome.

If Tatum turns into the type of player he looks like he might be (perennial All-Star, maybe All NBA) and the Celtics get a top-5 pick from the Lakers/Sacramento pick, that trade down from #1 will be the greatest move of his career, eclipsing the Brooklyn trade.

I think the Brooklyn trade itself could honestly be impossible to top... Lol. He got Jaylen Brown, and Tatum along with Irving from Garnett, Pierce, and Terry. Amazing.
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Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #25 on: December 03, 2017, 12:49:32 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Danny has gotten a lot of grief on this site for his drafting acumen, but he really has hit on his top 6 picks with Smart, Brown and Tatum. I think this goes a long way to explaining that your draft record definitely correlates to where you are picking.

That said, Danny was brilliant in trading down for Tatum while getting another, most probable, lottery pick while landing the best player in the draft. I think the last couple of years has shown that his ability to recognize talent is pretty awesome.

If Tatum turns into the type of player he looks like he might be (perennial All-Star, maybe All NBA) and the Celtics get a top-5 pick from the Lakers/Sacramento pick, that trade down from #1 will be the greatest move of his career, eclipsing the Brooklyn trade.

I think the Brooklyn trade itself could honestly be impossible to top... Lol. He got Jaylen Brown, and Tatum along with Irving from Garnett, Pierce, and Terry. Amazing.

The result of the Brooklyn trade was lucky, let's be honest.  When that trade was made it was actually controversial given the contracts Boston took back and the likelihood that Brooklyn would be a playoff team for the next few years.  I am not downplaying that move at all but there were a lot of ways that could have turned out.

The trade down to get Tatum was driven by scouting of the talent at the top of the draft.  He was Danny's #1 choice.  To make that trade, pick a non-consensus player at #3 who now looks like the best player in his class, and get a possible top-5 pick is GM/scouting skill at its finest.

That's why it will go down as his greatest move, if it plays out.

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #26 on: December 03, 2017, 12:57:04 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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I also feel a lot is their mature/intelligent personalities, coupled with a winning environment.

I absolutely agree that is has a lot to do with how mature they seem.

Marcus in hindsight looks like a strange pick. He was volatile in college. Perhaps Danny saw something else in Marcus.
marcus smart was the consensus #6 pick. After him and randle the pickings were slim

Looking back, danny did well. No one except Gary Harris and maybe Rodney Hood, capela broke out. That draft was top heavy and smart was a great pick compared to vonleh/stauskas/mcbuckets and  the other lotto guys

Eh, Smart was an alright pick at best. 

Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Elfrid Peyton, Zach Lavine, Dario Saric, TJ Warren, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarckson, and the aforementioned Harris, Capela, and Hood all went after Smart in that draft.
Yeah, you’re misunderstanding the point.  BEFORE the draft smart was the consensus pick (more or less).  Can’t play the game after the fact.

I see your point, if we pretend there were only six players available in that draft then Smart was the consensus number 6 pick.

Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #27 on: December 03, 2017, 03:47:29 PM »

Offline CactusThomas

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Danny is a genius.  Glad he is the GM.  Another stellar performance by these two young guns.   Celtics have the brightest future out of any other team in the league.

TP

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Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2017, 04:15:09 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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Lots of people seem to forget that the Brooklyn deal ain't done just yet...Let's see where this pick we got from Philly ends up.
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Re: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Danny was right
« Reply #29 on: December 03, 2017, 04:29:17 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

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I've always trusted Danny, so I don't overreact to his moves.  If you think about it, most of his major recent moves have been unpopular at first. 

- The PP & KG trade was a major gutpunch because every C's fan loved them, but without it we obviously wouldn't be where we are today.  Among the biggest trade heists of all time.
- Hiring of Brad Stevens.  Danny made this hiring relatively quickly after Doc left, leaving many surprised.  Most were lukewarm on this move at best.
- The Rondo trade was unpopular by many here, including myself.  The return seemed underwhelming at first, but it turned out to be a good move.
- I thought Danny would draft Dunn.  I was happy with Brown and didn't understand the negative reaction.
- This place was going berserk when we traded down from #1 to select Tatum.
- The Kyrie trade was understandably unpopular.  I loved IT as much as anyone but it was a good move, despite a very high cost.

I was as nervous as anyone about most of these moves, but at the end of the day didn't fret and just trusted that Danny knew what he was doing.  Turns out that he came out on top in most cases.  I don't think there's a GM in the league that does a better job of creating value with his moves.


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