The Consistency of Jayson Tatum

[kozlodoev]

We’ve been noticably better drafting since Stevens joined the brain-trust, no doubt about it.

No, we haven't, really.

[smokeablount]

Tatum has scored at least 11 points for 8 games in a row. He's scored 11 points or more in 18 of his 21 games in the NBA. He's currently averaging 13.9 per game. For anyone, this is terrific consistency. For a 19 year old rookie, I think this is remarkable.

More remarkable still is his team defense - astonishing would be my word. Of all the mountains that rookies have to climb, this is the steepest. But Jayson plays defense like a vet.

Tatum is amazing.
Danny is a genius.

You mean... he's a genius at... the Draft?!

More like, BRAD is a drafting genius. 

Danny made a genius coaching hire, and is a good enough leader to take his advise. 

We’ve been noticably better drafting since Stevens joined the brain-trust, no doubt about it.

No, we’ve largely just had better and more draft picks since Stevens has been here.  In 4 drafts in the Stevens era, we’ve had two 1st round busts (Young and Hunter), an early 2nd that also failed (Mickey), and another 1st for whom the verdict is still out (Yabusele).  We’ve done well with all the top 10 picks, which is important, but we didn’t have those for the prior 8 or so years to compare to.

Hunter was not a first round bust. He basically did what you’d expect from the 25th pick in a shallow draft. Though he was bad, he only really parted the Celtics early because of our abundance of picks.

When you’re out of the league one year after being a 1st round pick, you’re a bust.  Period.  If he got cut and latched on somewhere, even on the back of the roster, that could be an excuse of a roster crunch.  But that he hasn’t says that he was simply a bad pick.  Especially now that two-way players exist.

That’s very simplistic thinking. Bad pick yes, bust no. The Celtics had 2 first rounders in 2014, three top 35 picks in Hunters year in 2015 and the #3 pick in 2016. That’s 6 essential first round picks in 3 years and none of them started when Hunter was cut. Context matters and late first round picks are lucky to get a second deal. He did later play for the Bulls and I doubt you’d bet your life he’ll never play another NBA game. 

If you think Hunter was a bust and someone like JR Giddens wasn’t just because we didn’t have many picks then and he just sat on the bench for 2-3 years more power to you. Plenty of late first rounders are international guys who never play even one year, one was picked a few spots ahead of Hunter.

No NBA decision maker is calling a failed 28th pick a bust. For a brilliant poster who adds value to this board by handling nuance with precision, this is a disappointing take from you.

[saltlover]

Tatum has scored at least 11 points for 8 games in a row. He's scored 11 points or more in 18 of his 21 games in the NBA. He's currently averaging 13.9 per game. For anyone, this is terrific consistency. For a 19 year old rookie, I think this is remarkable.

More remarkable still is his team defense - astonishing would be my word. Of all the mountains that rookies have to climb, this is the steepest. But Jayson plays defense like a vet.

Tatum is amazing.
Danny is a genius.

You mean... he's a genius at... the Draft?!

More like, BRAD is a drafting genius. 

Danny made a genius coaching hire, and is a good enough leader to take his advise. 

We’ve been noticably better drafting since Stevens joined the brain-trust, no doubt about it.

No, we’ve largely just had better and more draft picks since Stevens has been here.  In 4 drafts in the Stevens era, we’ve had two 1st round busts (Young and Hunter), an early 2nd that also failed (Mickey), and another 1st for whom the verdict is still out (Yabusele).  We’ve done well with all the top 10 picks, which is important, but we didn’t have those for the prior 8 or so years to compare to.

Hunter was not a first round bust. He basically did what you’d expect from the 25th pick in a shallow draft. Though he was bad, he only really parted the Celtics early because of our abundance of picks.

When you’re out of the league one year after being a 1st round pick, you’re a bust.  Period.  If he got cut and latched on somewhere, even on the back of the roster, that could be an excuse of a roster crunch.  But that he hasn’t says that he was simply a bad pick.  Especially now that two-way players exist.

That’s very simplistic thinking. Bad pick yes, bust no. The Celtics had 2 first rounders in 2014, three top 35 picks in Hunters year in 2015 and the #3 pick in 2016. That’s 6 essential first round picks in 3 years and none of them started when Hunter was cut. Context matters and late first round picks are lucky to get a second deal. He did later play for the Bulls and I doubt you’d bet your life he’ll never play another NBA game. 

If you think Hunter was a bust and someone like JR Giddens wasn’t just because we didn’t have many picks then and he just sat on the bench for 2-3 years more power to you. Plenty of late first rounders are international guys who never play even one year, one was picked a few spots ahead of Hunter.

No NBA decision maker is calling a failed 28th pick a bust. For a brilliant poster who adds value to this board by handling nuance with precision, this is a disappointing take from you.

While I thank you for the compliment, sometimes nuance is not needed.  Hunter was a failed pick.  No NBA team even had enough interest in him to bring him to training camp.  I don’t expect all my late 1sts to become All-Stars, and really nothing more than fringe rotation players for a couple of seasons.  But NBA rosters are larger than ever, and that he can’t find someone who even has interest in developing him as a two-way player in the D-League for a season or two says a lot about the league’s opinion of his talent, and how quickly they made such a decision.

Here’s the list of two-way players: http://gleague.nba.com/players-two-way-contracts-2017-18-season/

Guys like John Holland, Vander Blue, and Malcolm Miller all have deals, and Hunter isn’t even an affiliate player, much less 2-way.  There’s no way to pretend that Hunter met any expectation of being a 1st round pick, unless you have zero expectations at all.  He barely met the expectations of a late 2nd.

Is it the end of the world? Obviously not.  Will we forget about Hunter the same way we forget about Jajuan Johnson?  Sure.  Did he significantly fail to meet the modest expectations of being a 1st round pick?  Most certainly.  And for that, he is a bust.

But this thread is about Jayson Tatum, who had incredibly high expectations and has managed to so far exceed them.  He is not a bust, and let’s keep celebrating him.

[Emmette Bryant]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/11/30/16717774/jayson-tatum-boston-celtics-nba-draft-wings

[fairweatherfan]

We’ve been noticably better drafting since Stevens joined the brain-trust, no doubt about it.

No, we haven't, really.

We've drafted better players, it's just deeply confounded with having better picks.

[SCeltic34]

There are so many positive things to say about Tatum, but probably the thing I like best about him is his composure and willingness to let the game come to him.  It's uncommon for him to force plays that aren't there (bad drives/passes), and he doesn't usually force shots either.  He's shown that he can hit big shots in the 4th quarter and make FTs under pressure.  I strongly believe that he's learning to play the "right way" - making the correct play at the right time and not worrying about stuffing the stat sheet.

He's also dispelled many of the concerns about his game.  There were concerns about his "average" athleticism, but he's shown that he can get to the rim with one dribble from the 3 point line with relative ease thanks to his burst (good by NBA standards, but definitely not elite) and length.  There was a question mark about his shooting, but he's been lights out from 3.  And as above, he's playing within himself and playing team-oriented ball, and isn't a ball-stopping isolation player that he was at times at Duke.

Add that to the fact that he's scoring incredibly efficiently (49/48/85), helping significantly on the boards, and playing solid defense by rookie standards (good awareness and team defense, his length helps him average almost 1 BPG and 1 SPG), and we have a future star on our hands. 

I personally don't care too much about basic stats - PPG especially given that we have Irving, Horford, and Brown (and next year Hayward), so if it still hovers at around 13-15 PPG next season I won't be concerned.  This kid is going to be a killer on offense and in transition, and he'll be a solid, versatile defender.   I can't praise this kid enough.

[mctyson]

Tatum has scored at least 11 points for 8 games in a row. He's scored 11 points or more in 18 of his 21 games in the NBA. He's currently averaging 13.9 per game. For anyone, this is terrific consistency. For a 19 year old rookie, I think this is remarkable.

If he can keep this up through an entire season, I'll be in love forever.

He is well coached and is taking what the defense gives him.  Nothing looks rushed or forced.

The trade to get another possible top-5 pick, plus him, might eclipse the Brooklyn trade as Danny's greatest move ever, if it all plays out right.

[timpiker]

To me, Tatum is [dang] near perfect.  I wish he would be a little more aggressive and not disappear for long stretches.  His D is a great surprise.  He's good at everything.  And he's just been in the league for 2 months.  Amazing.

[Celtics4ever]

I wish he would be a little more aggressive and not disappear for long stretches.

I think you nailed it here, TP.   I feel the same.

[gouki88]

I wish he would be a little more aggressive and not disappear for long stretches.

I think you nailed it here, TP.   I feel the same.

Ever since Morris has started this has become more the case, which frustrates me to no end

[crimson_stallion]

I can't praise him enough. 

He currently ranks:
* 16th in the NBA in true shooting percentage (63%)
* 27th in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (56.9%)
* 12th in the league in Free Throw Rate (35.1%)
* 6th in the league in 3PT percentage (47.8%)
* 14th in the NBA in clutch points scored (29)
* 11th in the NBA in defensive rating (99.7)
* 7th among SF's in defensive real plus minus (+1.44)

These rankings would be impressive for any NBA player - the fact that he's doing this as a 19 year old rookie is beyond incredible.  It's mindblowing. 

But what amazes me the most, is his intangibles.  He has got to have the highest levels of maturity and selflessness I've ever seen from an NBA rookie.  He is the absolute personifies the concept of the true team player - he hasn't got a care in the world what personal numbers he records on any given night.  Hell some days I've seen him take onl y 3 or 4 attempts the entire game.  But he'll shoot 3-4 on those attempts, will grab 7 or 8 rebounds, and will play fantatsic defense - and he'll have a major impact on his team winning.  And that seems to be, genuinely, the only thing he cares about. 

Every rookie who comes in to the league loves to talk to talk.  They all talk about how they don't care about personal numbers, they'll do whatever the coach needs, they just want to help the team win, etc.  Very, very few rookies every back that up and show they truly mean it.  Jayson Tatum has done exactly that - he's proven that when he says those things, he means every word. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Garnett in that regard - he has an entirely different personality, but both were guys who were known for extreme unselfishness and for their willingness to do whatever it takes to help their team win. 

He is a guy who should bring the a LOT of extra wins to the Celtics franchise over the nexst 10 years.

[crimson_stallion]

Tatum has scored at least 11 points for 8 games in a row. He's scored 11 points or more in 18 of his 21 games in the NBA. He's currently averaging 13.9 per game. For anyone, this is terrific consistency. For a 19 year old rookie, I think this is remarkable.

If he can keep this up through an entire season, I'll be in love forever.

He is well coached and is taking what the defense gives him.  Nothing looks rushed or forced.

The trade to get another possible top-5 pick, plus him, might eclipse the Brooklyn trade as Danny's greatest move ever, if it all plays out right.

I don't think we can go that far!

After all, Boston had to trade the #1 pick to make that deal happen, and it was the Brooklyn deal that brought him that #1 pick to begin with!

Amazing deal though.  Between the Brooklyn trade, the the Tatum deal, the Kyrie trade, and the Horford/Hayward deals - Danny Ainge is almost embarrassing the rest of the league right now with his outright dominance as a GM. 

[Big333223]

I wish he would be a little more aggressive and not disappear for long stretches.

I think you nailed it here, TP.   I feel the same.

On this front, I was encouraged to see him call his own number last night against Amir Johnson in the 4th quarter. Yes it was Amir Johnson, but he still felt confident enough to waive off Theis so he could iso.

He's 19 years old and playing against/with a lot of grown men. I think he's easing his way into the NBA and his aggressiveness will come in due time.

[Big333223]

Update on Tatum's consistency:

Through 44 games he's scored in single digits only 6 times and he's never scored fewer than 4 points in an NBA game. He's also only had five 20 point games. He's never attempted more than 15 shots in a game, which he's done 3 times. He's a machine.

For all of the Durant/Pierce comps I've seen, this kind of consistency is Duncan-esque.

[kozlodoev]

I wish he would be a little more aggressive and not disappear for long stretches.

I think you nailed it here, TP.   I feel the same.

On this front, I was encouraged to see him call his own number last night against Amir Johnson in the 4th quarter. Yes it was Amir Johnson, but he still felt confident enough to waive off Theis so he could iso.

He's 19 years old and playing against/with a lot of grown men. I think he's easing his way into the NBA and his aggressiveness will come in due time.

Yeah, not worried yet. Here's a 19-year old kid, a rookie, that's starting with Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, and gets to spend a lot of minutes on the court with Smart and Rozier who aren't exactly great involving others.