Author Topic: Lakers Pick Theory  (Read 2124 times)

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Lakers Pick Theory
« on: December 28, 2017, 08:05:57 PM »

Offline jmen788

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I just don't think that it is likely that the team with the worst odds will win the top pick for the third year in a row... as a result I think the only way that we definitely get the pick is if the Lakers finish with the worst record. This doesn't seem likely, but it's possible with some luck... like if Ball misses a ton of time (his stats aren't great but I see a direct link between him playing and them playing better). Just my two cents.

Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2017, 08:46:39 PM »

Offline trickybilly

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Interesting theory. There are some stats nerds around here who may be able to tell you which is the best place to finish for the pick to convey. But all I know about stats is that if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 20 times in a row, the chance that the next time you flip it you will get heads is still 50/50 :)
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2017, 08:52:50 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

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oops

Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2017, 09:05:27 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Interesting theory. There are some stats nerds around here who may be able to tell you which is the best place to finish for the pick to convey. But all I know about stats is that if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 20 times in a row, the chance that the next time you flip it you will get heads is still 50/50 :)
If a coin comes up heads 20 times in a row, it's almost definitely not a fair coin and it's likely coming up heads again on toss 21.

Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2017, 12:11:36 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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Interesting theory. There are some stats nerds around here who may be able to tell you which is the best place to finish for the pick to convey. But all I know about stats is that if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 20 times in a row, the chance that the next time you flip it you will get heads is still 50/50 :)

You don't need to be a stats nerd to figure out the odds, just a basic grasp of how to use the internet.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2017, 12:46:40 AM »

Offline mef730

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I just don't think that it is likely that the team with the worst odds will win the top pick for the third year in a row... as a result I think the only way that we definitely get the pick is if the Lakers finish with the worst record. This doesn't seem likely, but it's possible with some luck... like if Ball misses a ton of time (his stats aren't great but I see a direct link between him playing and them playing better). Just my two cents.

You're right, it isn't. There's a 25% chance that the worst team will win the lottery (unless they changed it for this year; I don't remember if they adjusted it. It was 25% last year, anyway.), so there's a 3/4 chance that the worst team won't get the pick. But it's not because of previous results. The results of last year's lottery have absolutely no impact whatsoever on this year's lottery. If you flip a fair coin and get heads five times in a row, the chances of getting tails on the next flip are still 50%. The basketball lottery works the same way.

#trustthemath

Mike


Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2017, 07:56:15 AM »

Offline jmen788

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I just don't think that it is likely that the team with the worst odds will win the top pick for the third year in a row... as a result I think the only way that we definitely get the pick is if the Lakers finish with the worst record. This doesn't seem likely, but it's possible with some luck... like if Ball misses a ton of time (his stats aren't great but I see a direct link between him playing and them playing better). Just my two cents.

You're right, it isn't. There's a 25% chance that the worst team will win the lottery (unless they changed it for this year; I don't remember if they adjusted it. It was 25% last year, anyway.), so there's a 3/4 chance that the worst team won't get the pick. But it's not because of previous results. The results of last year's lottery have absolutely no impact whatsoever on this year's lottery. If you flip a fair coin and get heads five times in a row, the chances of getting tails on the next flip are still 50%. The basketball lottery works the same way.

#trustthemath

Mike

Yeah, I know that previous years lotteries don't impact this one, but I just find it highly unlikely the team with the worst record gets pick 1 3 years in a row. That has never happened before.

Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2017, 09:50:22 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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I just don't think that it is likely that the team with the worst odds will win the top pick for the third year in a row... as a result I think the only way that we definitely get the pick is if the Lakers finish with the worst record. This doesn't seem likely, but it's possible with some luck... like if Ball misses a ton of time (his stats aren't great but I see a direct link between him playing and them playing better). Just my two cents.

You're right, it isn't. There's a 25% chance that the worst team will win the lottery (unless they changed it for this year; I don't remember if they adjusted it. It was 25% last year, anyway.), so there's a 3/4 chance that the worst team won't get the pick. But it's not because of previous results. The results of last year's lottery have absolutely no impact whatsoever on this year's lottery. If you flip a fair coin and get heads five times in a row, the chances of getting tails on the next flip are still 50%. The basketball lottery works the same way.

#trustthemath

Mike

Yeah, I know that previous years lotteries don't impact this one, but I just find it highly unlikely the team with the worst record gets pick 1 3 years in a row. That has never happened before.
many such things are unlikely, but the all follow the law of averages. that is the entire point to the lottery, they trust math.

each year is indeed discreet from other years and do not affect one another, so don't factor that into your understanding of the odds.
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Re: Lakers Pick Theory
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2017, 10:36:00 AM »

Offline mqtcelticsfan

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I just don't think that it is likely that the team with the worst odds will win the top pick for the third year in a row... as a result I think the only way that we definitely get the pick is if the Lakers finish with the worst record. This doesn't seem likely, but it's possible with some luck... like if Ball misses a ton of time (his stats aren't great but I see a direct link between him playing and them playing better). Just my two cents.

You're right, it isn't. There's a 25% chance that the worst team will win the lottery (unless they changed it for this year; I don't remember if they adjusted it. It was 25% last year, anyway.), so there's a 3/4 chance that the worst team won't get the pick. But it's not because of previous results. The results of last year's lottery have absolutely no impact whatsoever on this year's lottery. If you flip a fair coin and get heads five times in a row, the chances of getting tails on the next flip are still 50%. The basketball lottery works the same way.

#trustthemath

Mike

Yeah, I know that previous years lotteries don't impact this one, but I just find it highly unlikely the team with the worst record gets pick 1 3 years in a row. That has never happened before.

Well yeah, it's unlikely. However now that's it already happened twice, it's still 5.1% more likely than next most likely individual outcome.