« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2017, 09:50:22 AM »
I just don't think that it is likely that the team with the worst odds will win the top pick for the third year in a row... as a result I think the only way that we definitely get the pick is if the Lakers finish with the worst record. This doesn't seem likely, but it's possible with some luck... like if Ball misses a ton of time (his stats aren't great but I see a direct link between him playing and them playing better). Just my two cents.
You're right, it isn't. There's a 25% chance that the worst team will win the lottery (unless they changed it for this year; I don't remember if they adjusted it. It was 25% last year, anyway.), so there's a 3/4 chance that the worst team won't get the pick. But it's not because of previous results. The results of last year's lottery have absolutely no impact whatsoever on this year's lottery. If you flip a fair coin and get heads five times in a row, the chances of getting tails on the next flip are still 50%. The basketball lottery works the same way.
#trustthemath
Mike
Yeah, I know that previous years lotteries don't impact this one, but I just find it highly unlikely the team with the worst record gets pick 1 3 years in a row. That has never happened before.
many such things are unlikely, but the all follow the law of averages. that is the entire point to the lottery, they trust math.
each year is indeed discreet from other years and do not affect one another, so don't factor that into your understanding of the odds.
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