Author Topic: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?  (Read 4212 times)

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June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« on: November 22, 2017, 08:29:43 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Fast forward - it is June 2019, basically after 2 NBA seasons or finals from now.

Hayward - $32,700,690   
Horford   - $30,123,015 PO   
Irving      - $21,329,750 PO
Jaylen Brown - possible Max Extension
Jayson Tatum - possible Max Extension in a year from then

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BOS.html

Hayward still has one guaranteed max year, so not much that we can do here. I think that trading him is a long shot. Even in the AD trade. Afterall, he could be Brads go-to guy to draw late-game plays by then :)

Horford and Irving can opt out, if they do, they could both seek Max extension. Kyrie is certainly more inclined to do so, having earned less basketball money till that point and being in his prime at age of 27. Horford could probably be softened (to a greater extent that KI) depending on how the team does by then. If we win a championship, my guess is he lowers his demands. Kyrie could be in the same boat, but at the lesser chance and/or fewer dollars saved than Al. Maybe he pulls a Durant on us, wins a chip, demands less.
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/08/10/kevin-durant-speaks-about-pay-cut
If LeBron takes less this summer (fairly possible, since he can join/form a stronger team then), it could establish this trend even further in the player's minds.
 
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and their deals are different beasts. Wing guys this good (even if they make just a little progress from now and don't get seriously injured) get Max dollars by default (see Porter, Barnes). That is the one thing I always(!) loved with the Fultz-Tatum trade. Since it is basically a guarantee that we are getting at least 1 and possibly 2 Max level players. That is a great scenario even with the below median outcome. One young Max player, (below or average median outcome) level wing can be flipped for assets; good vets or picks at just about any time. If they are generational or top 20 type players than we just sign them and keep them.

So, season 2019-20 is about to begin, we have 4 max guys, presuming Jaylen is on board longterm and Tatum getting closer to his next deal, with all sides (management, coaches, Tatum, fans) hoping he is to become the 5th max guy.

The points that are logically asserting themselves and that I am trying to make are:
- We are clearly going to be very good within next 2 years and further down the road.
- We won't be able to pay all these guys their market price 150/160 $mil for just 5 roster spots.
- Winning a championship within these 2 years (which I think will happen) would help us tremendously with the roster construction, either by getting pay cuts for our top-end guys or finish out the roster with solid vets (old gals) that are hopefull someone/Brad will finally put a ring on their finger :)
- We will have to sign our high pick that year too (ATM the 2019 Kings top 1 protected pick looks probable)
- Fans, don't tattoo players names on your backs (some made IT's, and now it is hard to remove them). There will certainly be some address changing for the guy or guys that we especially like.
- Smart won't be getting a big paycheck from us long term, If he does he will be moved till the end of that deal. We are missing some big salaries on our books to open up new trade possibilities. If you ask me, I'd rather have a young max level wing than Smart. Even if I have to trade that guy in at one point in the near future.

It is funny how even it the perfect world (our rebuild), even if you hit on picks and develop all of the guys as you should - you still can't sit pretty with your hands in your pockets. You still have to grind,
which leads me to my last point. Realizing that we can't have 5 max guys, market max worthy, on the roster, will force Danny to make another high stake trade and I can't wait for that next move of his.

Please share your thoughts.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2017, 08:54:43 AM by Androslav »
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Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2017, 08:54:31 AM »

Offline saltlover

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My thought is that Horford will not get a max deal after this contract ends, which happens to be when Brown’s extension starts.  I also don’t expect Hayward to get a max when his contract ends, which would be when Tatum’s extension starts.  Also, Brown and Tatum would get 25% max deals instead of 30% max deals, further limiting the impact.

That said, I do think it is a factor in what happened with Smart’s extension this year, and it is also a reason to not sweat the Lakers pick.  It is better both for avoiding the luxury tax this year as well as spacing out major contracts in 4-5 years if we get the Sacramento pick in 2019.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2017, 08:57:26 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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Fast forward - it is June 2019, basically after 2 NBA seasons or finals from now.

Hayward - $32,700,690   
Horford   - $30,123,015 PO   
Irving      - $21,329,750 PO
Jaylen Brown - possible Max Extension
Jayson Tatum - possible Max Extension in a year from then

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BOS.html

Hayward still has one guaranteed max year, so not much that we can do here. I think that trading him is a long shot. Even in the AD trade. Afterall, he could be Brads go-to guy to draw late-game plays by then :)

Horford and Irving can opt out, if they do, they could both seek Max extension. Kyrie is certainly more inclined to do so, having earned less basketball money till that point and being in his prime at age of 27. Horford could probably be softened (to a greater extent that KI) depending on how the team does by then. If we win a championship, my guess is he lowers his demands. Kyrie could be in the same boat, but at the lesser chance and/or fewer dollars saved than Al. Maybe he pulls a Durant on us, wins a chip, demands less.
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/08/10/kevin-durant-speaks-about-pay-cut
If LeBron takes less this summer (fairly possible, since he can join/form a stronger team then), it could establish this trend even further in the player's minds.
 
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and their deals are different beasts. Wing guys this good (even if they make just a little progress from now and don't get seriously injured) get Max dollars by default (see Porter, Barnes). That is the one thing I always(!) loved with the Fultz-Tatum trade. Since it is basically a guarantee that we are getting at least 1 and possibly 2 Max level players. That is a great scenario even with the below median outcome. One young Max player, (below or average median outcome) level wing can be flipped for assets; good vets or picks at just about any time. If they are generational or top 20 type players than we just sign them and keep them.

So, season 2019-20 is about to begin, we have 4 max guys, presuming Jaylen is on board longterm and Tatum getting closer to his next deal, with all sides (management, coaches, Tatum, fans) hoping he is to become the 5th max guy.

The points that are logically asserting themselves and that I am trying to make are:
- We are clearly going to be very good within next 2 years and further down the road.
- We won't be able to pay all these guys their market price 150/160 $mil for just 5 roster spots.
- Winning a championship within these 2 years (which I think will happen) would help us in tremendously with the roster construction, either by getting pay cuts for our top-end guys or finish out the roster with solid vets (old gals) that are hopefull someone/Brad will finally put a ring on their finger :)
- We will have to sign our (ATM the 2019 Kings top 1 protected pick looks probable)
- Fans, don't tattoo players names on your backs (some made IT's, and now it is hard to remove them). There will certainly be some address changing for the guy or guys that we especially like.
- Smart won't be getting a big paycheck from us long term, If he does he will be moved till the end of that deal. We are missing some big salaries to open up new trade possibilities. If you ask me, I'd rather have a young max level wing than Smart. Even if I have to trade that guy in at one point in the near future.

It is funny how even it the perfect world (our rebuild), even if you hit on picks and develop all of the guys as you should - you still can't sit pretty with your hands in your pockets. You still have to grind,
which leads me to my last point. Realizing that we can't have 5 max guys, market max worthy, on the roster, will force Danny to make another high stake trade and I can't wait for that next move of his.

Please share your thoughts.

But your post basically states that Tatum won't have a max contract by then so doesn't the statement "5 max guys on one team" immediately fall flat on it's face? Especially when that summer will be the last season of Horford's deal and the following year, with Horford then 34, he will be a free agent. By then I wouldn't doubt he's extremely comfortable with our team's culture, players, winning ways, and decides to sign a very friendly team deal.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2017, 09:04:54 AM »

Offline Androslav

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@Eddie20
I was trying to allude that it is impossible to have 5 guys on the max, hence the question mark, even if their talent or market would dictate so. At the same time, I implied that I think we will sign Horford to a cheaper deal, as I believe we will win the chip within next 20 months and he would value it a lot.
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2017, 09:32:02 AM »

Offline Granath

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I don't understand the purpose of this thread.

Jaylen's max deal - if he gets one - will be as Horford's expires. There's about a zero percent chance that Horford gets a maximum deal beginning at 34 years old. Thus there's no problem at all here.

Tatum's max deal - if he gets one - will be as Hayward's expires. Hayward might still get a max deal at 31 but since he and Tatum largely play the same position again I'm not seeing much of an issue here. If Tatum is worthy of the max then we can let Hayward walk without much of an issue.

Danny's done a masterful job of spacing out the contracts so that as one end another begins. Of course there's going to be turnover. That's always a fact of life in the NBA.

Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2017, 09:33:26 AM »

Offline jay

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I think they have it set up to be manageable as far as the star players go, but I think its going to cost us with the bench guys.

I would love to be able to keep Baynes, Morris, and Smart - they bring so much toughness to the table. We also have to start paying the LAL/SAC pick in a year or two.  Next year our bench could literally be Rozier, Ojeleye, Theis, and Yabusele. Will have to start signing old guys to veteran minimum contracts in the future.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2017, 09:38:00 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I don't think we will be paying that much tax long term, maybe for one year. We will see.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2017, 10:01:54 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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I don't think we will be paying that much tax long term, maybe for one year. We will see.
How much?  We need a capologist to chime in, making certain assumptions on where the luxury tax limit will go, if anywhere, in the next few years.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2017, 10:03:16 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I don't think we will be paying that much tax long term, maybe for one year. We will see.

It's pretty unavoidable. My guess is at least 3 years in the tax, may e more if the team is winning titles.

But we won't ever have 5 max contracts. The spacing of Horford, Hayward, Irving, Brown, and Tatum ensure we won't likely ever have more than 3 max contracts at any one time. It's possible if Hayward gets another max we'd have 4, but I think he can be re-signed for a little cheaper than that, though I'm not sure how much cheaper.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2017, 10:15:10 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Remember Tatum and Brown are much lower max contracts than the others. 
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Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2017, 10:41:02 AM »

Online Vermont Green

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It does help that Horford and Hayward roll off as Brown and Tatum are extended but unless someone takes a hometown discount, our salary is going to be huge, just with the big 3 of Irving, Brown, Tatum plus the other 12 roster slots.

I wonder if Kyrie would take say $25M per season instead of $40M (like Durant)?  Hard to believe he would.  Tatum and Brown will have made "only" about $30M through the first 4 seasons so it seems tough to ask them to take a discount.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2017, 10:53:12 AM »

Offline jambr380

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As it stands, we will definitely have 3 in Kyrie, Brown, and Tatum with the latter two getting considerably lower 'maxes'. Unless Brown/Tatum max out as Otto Porter types, I don't see any way we let them walk or don't at least trade them for an incredible return. I would love to keep Horford and Hayward around, but I am not sure how that is going to work out - especially with Hayward.

People are right about our bench, though. And, while it is fun having a young bench grow into their roles, they will eventually want to get paid (or won't be deserving of it and we will need to look elsewhere). Luckily there are always ring chasing veterans willing to play for the minimum.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2017, 11:01:41 AM »

Offline bdm860

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I think they have it set up to be manageable as far as the star players go, but I think its going to cost us with the bench guys.

I would love to be able to keep Baynes, Morris, and Smart - they bring so much toughness to the table. We also have to start paying the LAL/SAC pick in a year or two.  Next year our bench could literally be Rozier, Ojeleye, Theis, and Yabusele. Will have to start signing old guys to veteran minimum contracts in the future.

At least when you're a legit championship contender, the old guys are lining up to sign those vet minimum deals to go ring chasing.

Wouldn't mind having 2020 versions of Dwyane Wade, David West, or even JaVale McGee coming off the bench.

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Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2017, 11:14:46 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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It does help that Horford and Hayward roll off as Brown and Tatum are extended but unless someone takes a hometown discount, our salary is going to be huge, just with the big 3 of Irving, Brown, Tatum plus the other 12 roster slots.

I wonder if Kyrie would take say $25M per season instead of $40M (like Durant)?  Hard to believe he would.  Tatum and Brown will have made "only" about $30M through the first 4 seasons so it seems tough to ask them to take a discount.

I don't know if Kyrie will take $25 million, but I know he can't get $40 million.  Based on realgm's $108 million cap estimate for 2019, Kyrie's max would only be 5/188 (though I assume he'd rather sign a short term deal that makes him a FA when he becomes eligible for the 35% max in 2020-21).  He wouldn't even be the highest salary on the team in 2019 (Hayward's $32.7 million would beat his $32.4 million)
I'm bitter.

Re: June 2019 - 5 max guys on one team?
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2017, 11:26:54 AM »

Offline bdm860

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It does help that Horford and Hayward roll off as Brown and Tatum are extended but unless someone takes a hometown discount, our salary is going to be huge, just with the big 3 of Irving, Brown, Tatum plus the other 12 roster slots.

I wonder if Kyrie would take say $25M per season instead of $40M (like Durant)?  Hard to believe he would.  Tatum and Brown will have made "only" about $30M through the first 4 seasons so it seems tough to ask them to take a discount.

He did just waive a 15% trade kicker that was worth $5.8m to come here.

Kyrie's woke, on a higher spirtual realm, supeficial things like money don't matter to him. 

At least that's what I'm hoping when it comes to his next contract.

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