Author Topic: Baynes should start  (Read 789 times)

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Baynes should start
« on: November 17, 2017, 01:10:26 AM »

Offline Chris22

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It just seems like the starting unit plays better in the beginning if Baynes is starting. He sets good picks and establishes our physical dominance right out of the gate.
And Morris coming off the bench helps with the bench scoring.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2017, 05:52:47 AM »

Offline FatKidsDad

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I'm kinda thinking that, based on the results of the last 14 games, Coach Stevens probably has the lineups and rotations right.
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Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2017, 06:02:36 AM »

Offline knuckleballer

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I love both Baynes and Theis, but not on the court together.  I agree that the Celts play well with Baynes starting.  It takes a load off of Horford.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2017, 06:18:54 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
I'm kinda thinking that, based on the results of the last 14 games, Coach Stevens probably has the lineups and rotations right.

Agree TP!

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2017, 07:08:10 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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The Horford/Baynes pairing has the highest net rating of all 2 man pairings that have played at least 50 minutes so far this year.  Offensive rating 104.3, Def. Rat. 83.7, Net Rat. +20.5 over 150 minutes played together.

Against G.S. last night Horford/Baynes played only 4.6 minutes together and were +14 outscoring G.S. 18-4.

Baynes lineups when not playing with Horford have not been good posting Off. Rat. 87.4, Def. Rat 97.1, Net Rat. -9.7 in 153 minutes.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2017, 07:08:45 AM »

Offline hodgy03038

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Stevens is handling the lineups perfectly. Whether he starts or comes off the bench it seems to be the right thing. Actually Baynes plays great some games but that is usually against big bangers but when he plays more athletic guys like Draymond it's not so good. I love Theis and what he brings. They are a perfect tandem but they are perfect the way that Stevens adjusts the rotation and not necessarily that he has to start every game.


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Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2017, 07:52:14 AM »

Offline azzenfrost

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Anyone can start. The players seem to trust CBS' preparation for match ups.
I moved the cheese.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2017, 01:22:29 PM »

Offline DooVoo

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I'm kinda thinking that, based on the results of the last 14 games, Coach Stevens probably has the lineups and rotations right.

And /thread. Fans will always think they know more than the coaches though.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2017, 07:32:23 PM »

Offline mgent

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On the majority of nights, it makes more sense to start Morris with Horford at Center.

This allows Baynes to come off the bench at Center and anchor our defense, rather than Morris or Theis, one of which would have to play out of their natural PF position.

Also, starting Horford at C beside Morris simply gives us a heck of a lot more space for Kyrie, Tatum, and Brown to carve up the paint and get to the rim.  Get us out to an early lead.

Our defense and rebounding are already top of the league, there's not tons of room for improvement.  On the other hand, our team could use more offense, if anything, and Morris in the lineup is a big boost.
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Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2017, 07:43:46 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Quote
It just seems like the starting unit plays better in the beginning if Baynes is starting. He sets good picks and establishes our physical dominance right out of the gate.
And Morris coming off the bench helps with the bench scoring.

Actually if you look at the stats for picks and rolls. Horford is a way better screener and roller.  Often our eyes fail us, in terms of understanding what we see.

Quote
For instance, Irving is by far the most effective pick-and-roll ball-handler on the roster, generating 98.8 points per 100 chances, according to data from Second Spectrum ó far more than Marcus Smart (79.2) and Terry Rozier (83.2). But if we turn that around and look at how effective pick and rolls are based on whoís setting the screen, we can see Horfordís effect: When he sets the pick, Boston scores 103.7 points per 100 chances; with any other screener, itís just 81.1. Horfordís numbers with Irving are great, as you would expect, but he also elevates Smart, Rozier and anyone else who can fog a mirror.

This holds up away from the ball as well. While the Brad Stevens offense is known for its off-ball movement, Boston scores just 91.7 points per 100 chances created by off-ball screens, according to Second Spectrum ó a good but not outstanding number. When itís Horford setting the screen, though, that shoots up to 106.6 points per 100 chances. Compare that with Aron Baynes or Daniel Theis, the two Celtics who set the most screens aside from Horford, and itís no contest. Baynesí screens result in the Celts getting 79.1 points per 100 chances; Theisís arenít much better, at 88.8. In other words, it isnít a system thing ó Horford is producing this effect.

This is from this  great article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-player-on-the-celtics-isnt-who-you-think/

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2017, 08:07:28 PM »

Offline Chris22

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The Horford/Baynes pairing has the highest net rating of all 2 man pairings that have played at least 50 minutes so far this year.  Offensive rating 104.3, Def. Rat. 83.7, Net Rat. +20.5 over 150 minutes played together.

Against G.S. last night Horford/Baynes played only 4.6 minutes together and were +14 outscoring G.S. 18-4.

Baynes lineups when not playing with Horford have not been good posting Off. Rat. 87.4, Def. Rat 97.1, Net Rat. -9.7 in 153 minutes.

Thanks for proving my point.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2017, 08:28:55 PM »

Offline byennie

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The Horford/Baynes pairing has the highest net rating of all 2 man pairings that have played at least 50 minutes so far this year.  Offensive rating 104.3, Def. Rat. 83.7, Net Rat. +20.5 over 150 minutes played together.

Against G.S. last night Horford/Baynes played only 4.6 minutes together and were +14 outscoring G.S. 18-4.

Baynes lineups when not playing with Horford have not been good posting Off. Rat. 87.4, Def. Rat 97.1, Net Rat. -9.7 in 153 minutes.

All that tells me is that Horford has been really good, and Baynes not so much. The pairing has a worse net rating than Horford by himself.
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Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2017, 09:40:57 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Stevens is handling the lineups perfectly. Whether he starts or comes off the bench it seems to be the right thing. Actually Baynes plays great some games but that is usually against big bangers but when he plays more athletic guys like Draymond it's not so good. I love Theis and what he brings. They are a perfect tandem but they are perfect the way that Stevens adjusts the rotation and not necessarily that he has to start every game.

You do know the GSW starting line-up, right? If Baynes had started, he would have matched up with Pachulia and Horford would have matched up with Green. Stevens is an absolute genius and there is nobody else I would rather have as our coach, but this match-up seemed to obvious that I am pretty sure he just outsmarted himself in this case.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2017, 06:59:09 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Yea! Baynes is starting tonight.

Re: Baynes should start
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2017, 07:25:43 PM »

Offline chambers

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The only time Baynes will start is vs matchups with giants inside that Horford will have a harder time guarding physically.

Morris is far better player and will start 80% of games.
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