0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
I'm kinda thinking that, based on the results of the last 14 games, Coach Stevens probably has the lineups and rotations right.
QuoteIt just seems like the starting unit plays better in the beginning if Baynes is starting. He sets good picks and establishes our physical dominance right out of the gate.And Morris coming off the bench helps with the bench scoring.
For instance, Irving is by far the most effective pick-and-roll ball-handler on the roster, generating 98.8 points per 100 chances, according to data from Second Spectrum ó far more than Marcus Smart (79.2) and Terry Rozier (83.2). But if we turn that around and look at how effective pick and rolls are based on whoís setting the screen, we can see Horfordís effect: When he sets the pick, Boston scores 103.7 points per 100 chances; with any other screener, itís just 81.1. Horfordís numbers with Irving are great, as you would expect, but he also elevates Smart, Rozier and anyone else who can fog a mirror.This holds up away from the ball as well. While the Brad Stevens offense is known for its off-ball movement, Boston scores just 91.7 points per 100 chances created by off-ball screens, according to Second Spectrum ó a good but not outstanding number. When itís Horford setting the screen, though, that shoots up to 106.6 points per 100 chances. Compare that with Aron Baynes or Daniel Theis, the two Celtics who set the most screens aside from Horford, and itís no contest. Baynesí screens result in the Celts getting 79.1 points per 100 chances; Theisís arenít much better, at 88.8. In other words, it isnít a system thing ó Horford is producing this effect.
The Horford/Baynes pairing has the highest net rating of all 2 man pairings that have played at least 50 minutes so far this year. Offensive rating 104.3, Def. Rat. 83.7, Net Rat. +20.5 over 150 minutes played together. Against G.S. last night Horford/Baynes played only 4.6 minutes together and were +14 outscoring G.S. 18-4.Baynes lineups when not playing with Horford have not been good posting Off. Rat. 87.4, Def. Rat 97.1, Net Rat. -9.7 in 153 minutes.
Stevens is handling the lineups perfectly. Whether he starts or comes off the bench it seems to be the right thing. Actually Baynes plays great some games but that is usually against big bangers but when he plays more athletic guys like Draymond it's not so good. I love Theis and what he brings. They are a perfect tandem but they are perfect the way that Stevens adjusts the rotation and not necessarily that he has to start every game.