Author Topic: We're #1!!!  (Read 1782 times)

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Re: We're #1!!!
« Reply #45 on: November 17, 2017, 01:28:18 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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All the regression to the mean talk is a bit overstated. Yes, there are certain factors that may come back down to earth- after all, we're not going to with 80 in a row.

But, a couple of things:

1) It's very hard to define what the "mean" is with a group of players that have never played together. Irving, Tatum, Morris, Baynes, Semi, Theis, Yabusele all brand new. Brown is a significantly expanded role. Horford being used differently. Yes, if opponents appear to be missing more shots that they should that matters, but it can also be the new normal when practically everything about the team is new.

2) All the focus seems to be on our overachieving defense, and then how our offense isn't that good. Our defense might get worse, but our offense is just as likely to get better. Do we really think Smart is going to shoot 27% all year? Irving is going to shoot a career low from 3PT? Morris has only played 7 games. Rookies won't improve? Rozier is going to shoot 35%?
I think that Al and Tatum (offense) will regress to the mean.  Maybe Jaylen too.  Of course, so will Kyrie, who I think will only get better based on his past.

As for the defense, completely agree.  If anything, more time will help team defense (though teams will get better offensively too).  I don't think it's an accident that the Warriors were held below 90 points and we're known as a good defensive team.

Re: We're #1!!!
« Reply #46 on: November 17, 2017, 01:36:26 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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1) It's very hard to define what the "mean" is with a group of players that have never played together.
It's not particularly hard to conclude that at this point this group is probably playing above its average level of defense. How much higher is tough to say, obviously, but some level of dropoff is almost inevitable.

Do we really think Smart is going to shoot 27% all year?
No, I'm afraid he's actually going to go lower than that, based on his shot selection.

Rozier is going to shoot 35%?
Looking at his career so far, yes, it's fully realistic that this is where he might end up, give or take. In terms of play style, he's Smart redux with a less horrible three-pointer and minus the premium defense. That's why they are such a particularly horrible pairing in the back court.
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