Author Topic: People need to cool the Kyrie hype  (Read 3290 times)

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Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #60 on: November 14, 2017, 01:59:01 PM »

Offline DooVoo

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He has become a more complete player and is a def MVP candidate.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #61 on: November 14, 2017, 02:22:10 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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Steals is not the only defensive statistic. You are completely ignoring all actual defensive  stats


“It's not just the steals or Boston's defensive rating when Irving is on the court, it's his obvious effort and desire to contribute on that end of the floor.

In his six seasons in Cleveland, Irving held an average defensive rating of 106.9. Through 11 games with Boston, that number is down 11.4 points to 95.5, even lower than Boston's league-best rating of 95.9.”

“Kyrie Irving is putting up some of the best individual numbers of his career this season. Here's a look at his career defensive rating via NBA data, as well as his points allowed per possession via Synergy Sports data.” http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21329484/kyrie-irving-boston-celtics-flat-dominating-defense

Umm.... I don't know where you are getting your defensive rating numbers, but per nbawowy.com, so far this season Kyrie has been on the floor for 767 defensive possessions during which the opponents have scored 802 points which is a defensive rating of 104.5 points per 100 possessions.

With Kyrie OFF the floor, the team has surrendered 511 points on 509 defensive possessions for a defensive rating of 100.5 points per 100 possessions.

If you are using the individual Defensive Rating numbers from basketball-reference.com, keep in mind that those are estimates, not measurements.  And they give Aron Baynes the same 111 offensive rating as they do to Kyrie, when in fact the team has actually only scored 103.5 points per 100 offensive possessions with Aron on the floor.  In other words, I would take those numbers with a big grain of salt.

Take 5 minutes and compare the data between NBAwowy and NBA.com, you will find a lot of difference in the statistical data.  NBA.com is the official site of the NBA.  Quoting these off sites leads to a lot of misinformation and confusion.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #62 on: November 14, 2017, 02:34:33 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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He has become a more complete player and is a def MVP candidate.
not yet he isnt.

Needs to get that scoring way up and the offense needs to improve (Which would likely happen as a result of him making shots hes made the rest of his career) before we even start that conversation.
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Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #63 on: November 14, 2017, 02:53:18 PM »

Offline chiken Green

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He has become a more complete player and is a def MVP candidate.
not yet he isnt.

Needs to get that scoring way up and the offense needs to improve (Which would likely happen as a result of him making shots hes made the rest of his career) before we even start that conversation.

Actually he is in the early season talks already. A few of the talking heads have been bringing it up (right before he went out)  His Scoring does not have to go "way" up - he is at 20 now.. Steve Nash won it twice scoring under 20 - Magic won it twice at around 22.. IF this team keeps this winning pace and he stays at at least 20 he will win it easy.. But even if he doesnt - he will definitely be a candidate.. (he already is)

 

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #64 on: November 14, 2017, 02:57:55 PM »

Offline lbgreen33

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I think the loss of Larry Bird has really hurt our 3 point shooting.  This is the team we have now!
You can review stats and not be happy all day long. Or just enjoy the ride!
I choose to just enjoy the ride!

Haha TP.

We really could use Havlicek's timely steals, as well as Tiny Archibald's coast to coast abilities. McHale and Parish would fit nicely on this team.

TP right back to ya! Those are some great memories!! Here's to this team creating great new ones!! Enjoy the ride!

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #65 on: November 14, 2017, 03:09:17 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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He has become a more complete player and is a def MVP candidate.
not yet he isnt.

Needs to get that scoring way up and the offense needs to improve (Which would likely happen as a result of him making shots hes made the rest of his career) before we even start that conversation.

Actually he is in the early season talks already. A few of the talking heads have been bringing it up (right before he went out)  His Scoring does not have to go "way" up - he is at 20 now.. Steve Nash won it twice scoring under 20 - Magic won it twice at around 22.. IF this team keeps this winning pace and he stays at at least 20 he will win it easy.. But even if he doesnt - he will definitely be a candidate.. (he already is)

I love Kyrie, but I don't think he's in the running, yet. I think Horford's improvement also has contributed to our great start, which I don't plan on lasting.

Kyrie's statistics are not there, and make no bones about it- the MVP usually is a top 3 statistical player in the league. Kyrie's ppg, assists, fg%, rebounds, etc. are not the best in the league. He will need an uptick in many of the other categories besides scoring to be considered.

At 25 ppg, I think he'd need 10 assists, 6 rebounds, 40% from 3 to secure an MVP.

Greek Freak, Westbrook, Davis, Lebron, etc. will all likely have better stats than Kyrie.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #66 on: November 14, 2017, 04:22:22 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Nobody brings up pace of play in are supposed "worse offense with Kyrie" arguments? Just for info it's 24th and I'm pretty sure we were playing at a much faster pace last year.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #67 on: November 14, 2017, 04:39:19 PM »

Offline RIPRED

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He has become a more complete player and is a def MVP candidate.
not yet he isnt.

Needs to get that scoring way up and the offense needs to improve (Which would likely happen as a result of him making shots hes made the rest of his career) before we even start that conversation.

Actually he is in the early season talks already. A few of the talking heads have been bringing it up (right before he went out)  His Scoring does not have to go "way" up - he is at 20 now.. Steve Nash won it twice scoring under 20 - Magic won it twice at around 22.. IF this team keeps this winning pace and he stays at at least 20 he will win it easy.. But even if he doesnt - he will definitely be a candidate.. (he already is)

I love Kyrie, but I don't think he's in the running, yet. I think Horford's improvement also has contributed to our great start, which I don't plan on lasting.

Kyrie's statistics are not there, and make no bones about it- the MVP usually is a top 3 statistical player in the league. Kyrie's ppg, assists, fg%, rebounds, etc. are not the best in the league. He will need an uptick in many of the other categories besides scoring to be considered.

At 25 ppg, I think he'd need 10 assists, 6 rebounds, 40% from 3 to secure an MVP.

Greek Freak, Westbrook, Davis, Lebron, etc. will all likely have better stats than Kyrie.

Why don't you think Horford can keep it up?

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #68 on: November 14, 2017, 04:46:42 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Nobody brings up pace of play in are supposed "worse offense with Kyrie" arguments? Just for info it's 24th and I'm pretty sure we were playing at a much faster pace last year.

The offense is worse on a per-possession basis.  We’re also 24th in both eFG% and TS%.

Our offense is ranked 19th, at 106.0 points per 100 possessions.

Last year it was 8th, at 111.2 points per 100 possessions.

Our pace is almost identical to last year, but the pace overall in the NBA is up this year, while we’ve slowed down a very small amount.


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Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #69 on: November 14, 2017, 04:55:24 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Nobody brings up pace of play in are supposed "worse offense with Kyrie" arguments? Just for info it's 24th and I'm pretty sure we were playing at a much faster pace last year.

WRONG!  (In my best Donald Trump Voice)  JK   it's close but slightly worse.

Last year 2016   100.1 NBA Team Possessions per Game   PACE of 99.3    8th
This year 2017     99.4 NBA Team Possessions per Game   PACE of 98.6     19th

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/year/2017

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/year/2017

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/possessions-per-game

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #70 on: November 14, 2017, 05:46:53 PM »

Online Vermont Green

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I disagree with the entire premise of this thread.  There is no need to tell anyone how much they should hype Kyrie.  My advice to everyone is to enjoy it and hype him as much or as little as you want.  We are on pace to win 70 games.  After tonight, we may be on pace for 71.  And that is without Hayward.  I know that I did not see this coming.

Of course, we are 2-0 in games that Irving plays 2 min. or less so maybe we are over-hyping him.  We are 2-0 without Horford too so I guess we are over-hyping him too.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #71 on: November 14, 2017, 05:56:14 PM »

Offline Redz

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I disagree with the entire premise of this thread.  There is no need to tell anyone how much they should hype Kyrie.  My advice to everyone is to enjoy it and hype him as much or as little as you want.  We are on pace to win 70 games.  After tonight, we may be on pace for 71.  And that is without Hayward.  I know that I did not see this coming.

Of course, we are 2-0 in games that Irving plays 2 min. or less so maybe we are over-hyping him.  We are 2-0 without Horford too so I guess we are over-hyping him too.
So play Kyrie for 2 minutes or less...Go 80-2 for the season and have a super well rested point guard for the post season.

Simple enough

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Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #72 on: November 14, 2017, 06:04:07 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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Quote
Nobody brings up pace of play in are supposed "worse offense with Kyrie" arguments? Just for info it's 24th and I'm pretty sure we were playing at a much faster pace last year.

WRONG!  (In my best Donald Trump Voice)  JK   it's close but slightly worse.

Last year 2016   100.1 NBA Team Possessions per Game   PACE of 99.3    8th
This year 2017     99.4 NBA Team Possessions per Game   PACE of 98.6     19th

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/year/2017

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/year/2017

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/possessions-per-game
Celtics fast break points per game the last 3 years.  15-16 season 16.3 6th in the league, 16-17 12.4 17th in the league, this year 8.1 22nd in the league.  Celtics pace has gone from 15-16 101.15 3rd, to 16-17 99.32 12th, to this year 98.68 24th.

The C's are playing slower and slower as the league is playing faster and faster.  The fast break points that the C's are scoring have been cut in half.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #73 on: November 14, 2017, 06:08:06 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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He has become a more complete player and is a def MVP candidate.
not yet he isnt.

Needs to get that scoring way up and the offense needs to improve (Which would likely happen as a result of him making shots hes made the rest of his career) before we even start that conversation.

Actually he is in the early season talks already. A few of the talking heads have been bringing it up (right before he went out)  His Scoring does not have to go "way" up - he is at 20 now.. Steve Nash won it twice scoring under 20 - Magic won it twice at around 22.. IF this team keeps this winning pace and he stays at at least 20 he will win it easy.. But even if he doesnt - he will definitely be a candidate.. (he already is)

I love Kyrie, but I don't think he's in the running, yet. I think Horford's improvement also has contributed to our great start, which I don't plan on lasting.

Kyrie's statistics are not there, and make no bones about it- the MVP usually is a top 3 statistical player in the league. Kyrie's ppg, assists, fg%, rebounds, etc. are not the best in the league. He will need an uptick in many of the other categories besides scoring to be considered.

At 25 ppg, I think he'd need 10 assists, 6 rebounds, 40% from 3 to secure an MVP.

Greek Freak, Westbrook, Davis, Lebron, etc. will all likely have better stats than Kyrie.

Why don't you think Horford can keep it up?

Mispoke. Intended to write that the Celtics won't continue this torrid pace.

Re: People need to cool the Kyrie hype
« Reply #74 on: November 14, 2017, 06:28:33 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Steals is not the only defensive statistic. You are completely ignoring all actual defensive  stats


“It's not just the steals or Boston's defensive rating when Irving is on the court, it's his obvious effort and desire to contribute on that end of the floor.

In his six seasons in Cleveland, Irving held an average defensive rating of 106.9. Through 11 games with Boston, that number is down 11.4 points to 95.5, even lower than Boston's league-best rating of 95.9.”

“Kyrie Irving is putting up some of the best individual numbers of his career this season. Here's a look at his career defensive rating via NBA data, as well as his points allowed per possession via Synergy Sports data.” http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21329484/kyrie-irving-boston-celtics-flat-dominating-defense

Umm.... I don't know where you are getting your defensive rating numbers, but per nbawowy.com, so far this season Kyrie has been on the floor for 767 defensive possessions during which the opponents have scored 802 points which is a defensive rating of 104.5 points per 100 possessions.

With Kyrie OFF the floor, the team has surrendered 511 points on 509 defensive possessions for a defensive rating of 100.5 points per 100 possessions.

If you are using the individual Defensive Rating numbers from basketball-reference.com, keep in mind that those are estimates, not measurements.  And they give Aron Baynes the same 111 offensive rating as they do to Kyrie, when in fact the team has actually only scored 103.5 points per 100 offensive possessions with Aron on the floor.  In other words, I would take those numbers with a big grain of salt.

Take 5 minutes and compare the data between NBAwowy and NBA.com, you will find a lot of difference in the statistical data.  NBA.com is the official site of the NBA.  Quoting these off sites leads to a lot of misinformation and confusion.

I've spent a lot more than 5 minutes on all these sites (Yes, I'm a nerd).

It's not as simple as asserting "NBA.com is the official site".  That doesn't really make any of it's derived numbers more accurate.  What matters is how a value is arrived at.   If they could show that their offensive/defensive rating numbers were calculated based on measured points per a measured number of possessions, that would be great.  But so far, it's a bit of mystery just how their numbers are calculated.  At least I haven't been able to find their published formulae.

They already have some known weirdness in the area of possession counting already because the 'pace' numbers for their boxscores are fractional (i.e., "92.45"), which makes no sense.   Possession counts are integral.

Without an explanation of _how_ they are getting their possession count numbers, given the weird pace numbers it's unfortunately suspiciously likely that they are estimating based on event counts such as FGA & TOV stats, but that is prone to over counting possessions (because ORBs can result in multiple FGA on a single possession and there is no way to correct for that unless you know how the ORBs are distributed across possessions).

Evan Zamir (the statistician who created nbawowy.com) calculates his possession counts the correct way, by examining the play-by-play game-log JSON data (which he gets FROM NBA.com) and basically tracking possession changes and tracking player presence on the floor.   It's not 100% infallible, due to some shortcomings in the data, but it's pretty close and the numbers are at least presented discretely so you can see what the inputs and formula are for derived values.

I'm not going to claim nbawowy.com is infallible by any stretch.  Their USG calculations tend to always come up noticeably short of 100% on 5-man lineups.   Of course, that particular number is an estimate and it's not a big deal.   

Getting possession counts exactly right is tricky.  There are several tripping points.   For one, an offensive rebound normally does not start a new possession -- it simply continues the current one.  However, if it is a 'team rebound' due to say, the defense tipping it out of bounds there is a chance that a substitution could occur in the middle of the possession.  Same with things like a kicked ball.   Similarly, when two free throws are taken, players of often subbed in between.  Technically, from a TEAM and GAME perspective, this is still just the same possession because there has been no official "change of possession".   But different sites handle that differently since the players on the floor have changed.  Some count it as a new possession only if players have changed.  Others just go ahead and give more players credit for participating in the one possession (this is probably the correct way).

And as I noted, some sites don't do actual possession tracking but rather simply estimate the number of possessions during a period of time based on other stats.
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