Author Topic: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?  (Read 1461 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2017, 05:10:34 PM »

Offline Birdman

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3221
  • Tommy Points: 185
I see someone offering Smart a huge deal like Dallas

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2017, 05:15:46 PM »

Online saltlover

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9648
  • Tommy Points: 2089
I see someone offering Smart a huge deal like Dallas

I thought that likely until Smartís shooting somehow got worse this year.  The season is short and he could still turn it around, but the odds of that have shrunk dramatically.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2017, 05:29:29 PM »

Offline loco_91

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2054
  • Tommy Points: 143
I hope we just keep everyone and eat the tax. We'll have a chance at a championship, so I think it will be worthwhile to ownership.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2017, 05:40:19 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30792
  • Tommy Points: 5149
I think a lot could depend on if the LA pick conveys as well as the demands Smart and Baynes make for salary. We can only offer Baynes the MLE. Who knows if he will be happy with that. Smart might get a ridiculous offer that Ainge just won't match. And if the pick conveys, maybe that player replaces whoever doesn't resign(Doncic for Smart or Ayton for Baynes).

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2017, 05:47:32 PM »

Offline colincb

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3147
  • Tommy Points: 248
  • Sick of all the winning
They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

It isnít really missing the forest for the trees.  Baynes isnít going to command a 4-year deal.  Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer.  Itís not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.

If Smart ends up at the QO, he's not as good as he is now.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2017, 05:54:46 PM »

Online saltlover

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9648
  • Tommy Points: 2089
They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

It isnít really missing the forest for the trees.  Baynes isnít going to command a 4-year deal.  Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer.  Itís not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.

If Smart ends up at the QO, he's not as good as he is now.

Disagree.  He would be a casualty of limited cap space, and teamsí beliefs that the Celtics will match a reasonable offer, so why negotiate with someone who you arenít going to sign?  This leaves Smart with the option of signing a long-term deal for less than heíd like, or taking the QO and seeing if unrestricted free agency creates a better outcome.  Which is exactly the strategy his agent used with Noel this summer (time will tell if that was wise).

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2017, 05:59:30 PM »

Offline colincb

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3147
  • Tommy Points: 248
  • Sick of all the winning
They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

The thing is if he shot extremely well, there is absolutely no way Ainge would be able to keep him.

Our only hope is that Smart re-signs for a team friendly deal.


Smart's never going to be an extremely good shooter, but if he was one, neither of us knows whether the C's ownership would opt to pay him.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2017, 05:59:46 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

  • NCE
  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4214
  • Tommy Points: 272
 Do we even want smart if his shooting goes to career low percentages

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2017, 06:03:45 PM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3015
  • Tommy Points: 453

Here are all the relevant details:

We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19.   The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M.   So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.

Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:

Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit.  Or none.

I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.

Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M.    I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.

Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.   

And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.

It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.

Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.

Agree with everything except Baynes.  With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. Heís a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included.  As valuable as heís been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.
Let me clarify:  My comment wasn't meant to indicate I think he will get paid _more_ than the MLE, but rather that I think he will likely get exactly that.  There may not be many teams with a lot of cap space (and those teams don't tend to be contenders) but there are multiple teams that will have the MLE available.  And I expect one or more would be glad to use that on a player like Baynes.   Having a "true classic big" who can play ~20 minutes of above average low-paint defense has been part of the formula for each of the recent championship teams (Splitter, Bogut, Mozgov, Thompson, Zaza, McGee, Ezeli -- these "non-3PT-shooting" bigs all have rings now.  Heck, Baynes also has one, as he was providing backup on that role behind Splitter).

In other words, we should expect that (barring injury or some other event that changes his value) that his price next summer will be the MLE.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.
#OneCitizenOneVote - True Election Reform:  Eliminate the anti-democratic Electoral College farce now.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2017, 06:03:48 PM »

Online saltlover

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9648
  • Tommy Points: 2089
Do we even want smart if his shooting goes to career low percentages

Yes we do.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #25 on: November 13, 2017, 06:10:48 PM »

Offline mmmmm

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3015
  • Tommy Points: 453
Do we even want smart if his shooting goes to career low percentages

Yes we do.

Hmm.... just how low are we talking about here?

I think there are limits where the "we" in your comment may not be the correct pronoun to be using.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.
#OneCitizenOneVote - True Election Reform:  Eliminate the anti-democratic Electoral College farce now.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #26 on: November 13, 2017, 06:22:02 PM »

Offline colincb

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3147
  • Tommy Points: 248
  • Sick of all the winning
They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

It isnít really missing the forest for the trees.  Baynes isnít going to command a 4-year deal.  Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer.  Itís not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.

If Smart ends up at the QO, he's not as good as he is now.

Disagree.  He would be a casualty of limited cap space, and teamsí beliefs that the Celtics will match a reasonable offer, so why negotiate with someone who you arenít going to sign?  This leaves Smart with the option of signing a long-term deal for less than heíd like, or taking the QO and seeing if unrestricted free agency creates a better outcome.  Which is exactly the strategy his agent used with Noel this summer (time will tell if that was wise).

If I was another team, I wouldn't be worried about the Cs matching a market offer  to Smart. The Cs would have trouble justifying matching him given his production and their cap situation, but to an offering team with cap room like the Sixers, he'd be a reasonable gamble to see if he can straighten himself out.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2017, 06:30:25 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6131
  • Tommy Points: 462
  • On To Banner 18!
Look, I love Smart as much as the next guy and he does make "winning plays".

But if some team offers him something along the lines of 4/80M+... then I'm not losing any sleep if Ainge decides to let him walk at that price.

I'd hope they keep Smart and keep him around 4/72M at max, but they will also need to pay guys like Brown, Irving, etc. in the future as well to keep them around.

I do think Baynes will be offered the full MLE and I think he'd accept (barring, god forbid, a big injury or something).

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2017, 06:37:12 PM »

Offline More Banners

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3460
  • Tommy Points: 226
Since I'm too lazy to look it up and at least one of y'all already knows...

Who has cap space to go over the MLE next year?  Lakers, Sixers, and who?

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #29 on: November 13, 2017, 06:44:21 PM »

Online saltlover

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9648
  • Tommy Points: 2089

Here are all the relevant details:

We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19.   The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M.   So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.

Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:

Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit.  Or none.

I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.

Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M.    I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.

Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.   

And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.

It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.

Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.

Agree with everything except Baynes.  With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. Heís a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included.  As valuable as heís been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.
Let me clarify:  My comment wasn't meant to indicate I think he will get paid _more_ than the MLE, but rather that I think he will likely get exactly that.  There may not be many teams with a lot of cap space (and those teams don't tend to be contenders) but there are multiple teams that will have the MLE available.  And I expect one or more would be glad to use that on a player like Baynes.   Having a "true classic big" who can play ~20 minutes of above average low-paint defense has been part of the formula for each of the recent championship teams (Splitter, Bogut, Mozgov, Thompson, Zaza, McGee, Ezeli -- these "non-3PT-shooting" bigs all have rings now.  Heck, Baynes also has one, as he was providing backup on that role behind Splitter).

In other words, we should expect that (barring injury or some other event that changes his value) that his price next summer will be the MLE.

Do you mean the full MLE?  Currently there are 12 teams (including the Celtics) who would project to be in or near enough to th luxury tax/apron that theyíd be ineligible for the big MLE next season, and there are a few other teams who would fall into that category if they keep a key free agent (New Orleans with Cousins, Milwaukee with Parker, Detroit with Bradley, etc).  At least half the league is likely to be unable to offer the full MLE.  On top of that, we see what similar centers like Dedmon and Pachulia have gone for the last two seasons, not to mention Baynes himself, and I just donít see the market for anything more than the taxpayer MLE.  I like him, but heís not playing exceptionally better than the last couple of seasons.  He just looks amazing because the void of his skillset was missed more than many of us realized.