Author Topic: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?  (Read 1483 times)

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Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« on: November 13, 2017, 02:17:52 PM »

Offline otherdave

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Someone smarter than me recently said "If C's choose RFA Smart, they are not choosing someone else (i. e. UFA Aron Baynes)".  I have been playing around with salary figures for next year trying to figure out who to resign while keeping out of luxury tax territory for one last year.  It is darn near impossible to bring back everyone under contract  (no trades) and bring back both MS and AB, and still stay under the luxury tax - this even assumes Lakers pick doesn't convey and swapping out Nader for someone cheaper, and only keeping 14 players.

While trying to be creative, I remembered Omer Asik's odd 3 yr balloon contract starting in the 2012-2013 season, which paid 5 mil, 5 mil and 15 mil the final year - which was allowed under the Gilbert Arenas provision in the CBA.  I thought maybe C's could get Smart to sign a balloon type contract, but upon further research the Gilbert provision mostly only pertains to 2nd rd picks with early or non bird rights, plus I think cap space maybe needed.

I'm I missing something, or is this an impossible task to sign both and stay under lux tax?



other miscellaneous questions:

Can anyone confirm that K Allen & J Bird's 2 way contracts are just for one year (not 2 yr)?

After injuries settle down, would Yabu benefit from some playing time in G league or does he develop better riding bench with parent club?

I think I get how 1st rd rookie contracts work vs. how 2nd rd rookie contracts can be structured.  Dan Theis was neither of these things, I believe he was signed as UFA (??) - how is it that he is a RFA after 2 years - I know C's only offered him a 2 yr deal, but where should I be reading in Larry Coon's FAQs?

Thanks in advance.
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Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2017, 02:20:13 PM »

Online saltlover

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Iím busy.  But both can probably be kept ó just a matter of what tax bill the team is willing to pay, which is compounded by what happens with the Lakers pick.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2017, 02:39:07 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Looking at rough numbers I don't see any way we can keep Smart and stay under the tax line. Not unless he accepts the QO. Baynes should be able to be kept on a reasonable deal that will keep us under the tax line next year, though.

And this, ultimately, is why I'm beginning to believe Smart's tenure in Boston is near the end. After next season, starting in 2019-20, we're looking at probably five straight years of being over the tax, depending on on what Horford's next contract looks like, and assuming both Brown and Tatum get max extensions. I feel like Wyc will have no problem paying the lux tax for those guys, but I'm not sure about Smart. If they weren't willing to pay the lux tax for Bradley, I just don't see them being willing to pay it for Smart, who is clearly an inferior player to Bradley.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2017, 02:58:35 PM »

Offline otherdave

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What is a "reasonable" amount for Baynes?

He will be a UFA and I don't think C's have his Bird rights, therefore C's can only offer up to the mid-level exception of about 8.5 million - I think this is correct, but let me know if this is wrong.

Is Baynes playing his way above an 8.5 mil contract? i.e. what will other teams be willing to offer?
"And so when we started winning, it was really cool. The thing I still remember, when we won the title [in 2008], I looked over and Tommy was crying. And I was thinking: He's the true definition of what a Celtic is. And he's the best. Tommy means the world to me."     Doc Rivers

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2017, 03:00:09 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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This is my fear that we will have to overspend just to keep one of those guys. Baynes  solved a lot of our front court issues. H

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2017, 03:02:21 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Here are all the relevant details:

We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19.   The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M.   So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.

Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:

Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit.  Or none.

I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.

Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M.    I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.

Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.   

And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.

It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.

Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
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Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2017, 03:12:26 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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One possible scenario that may help the longer term picture is to basically swap Kyrie and Al's salaries.

Currently, we are scheduled to pay them a combined 51M in 2019-20, which would be their option year (30M for Al, 21M for Kyrie).   

Most folks expect Kyrie to 'opt out' in order to sign a new 'max deal which would pay him ~31M+ for 3-5 years.

Most folks also might expect Horford to 'opt in' because why would he give up 30M in his age 33 season?  He wouldn't be able to get paid near that much anywhere else, it is thought.

But Danny might be able to convince Al to 'opt out' and sign a multi-year contract at a lower per-annum number, but for more overall money.  I.E., something like 3 x 20M.    Possibly even on a slightly sliding scale so the cap hit reduces in the final year).

That would keep the overall annual cost for retaining both Kyrie and Al at about the same (just over 50M).

Just a thought.   Obviously a lot of things could happen between now and then.
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Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2017, 03:23:20 PM »

Offline otherdave

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I had thought about that too, Al would probably be more receptive to that 20m for 3 yrs the year after picking up his player option - would be great if Danny could corral him as you suggest.

Given this bleak financial picture, is Smart on the trading block at the deadline, or do C's leave the great chemistry alone, enjoy a deep playoff run, then let Marcus walk away for nothing next summer?
"And so when we started winning, it was really cool. The thing I still remember, when we won the title [in 2008], I looked over and Tommy was crying. And I was thinking: He's the true definition of what a Celtic is. And he's the best. Tommy means the world to me."     Doc Rivers

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2017, 03:23:20 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Here are all the relevant details:

We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19.   The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M.   So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.

Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:

Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit.  Or none.

I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.

Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M.    I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.

Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.   

And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.

It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.

Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.
definitely an interesting dilemma but considering this team is designed to compete for a title, Wyc and company have shown a willingness to pay the tax in the past when they have a top team with a legit chance to contend.  if keeping Smart and Baynes (if possible but if he plays like this the rest of the year, we won't get him back with the MLE so this becomes a moot discussion) puts us into tax territory, I don't think Wyc would hesitate to pony up the cash.  It's not like Boston doesn't provide ample other sources of income for the team besides the playoff ticket revenue

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2017, 04:20:21 PM »

Online saltlover

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Here are all the relevant details:

We currently have 107.3M committed to 11 players for 2018-19.   The luxury tax threshold should be around 120M.   So that leaves us about 12.7M of space below the threshold with which to fill the remaining 4 slots.

Our options for filling those 4 open roster slots and chewing up that salary space will include:

Marcus Smart, Restricted Free Agent w/Bird Rights.
Aron Baynes, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Shane Larkin, Unrestricted Free Agent, no Bird Rights.
Boston Celtics 2018 1st round pick which will have a roughly ~1.5M cap hit.
LAL18 pick (if it conveys) which will have anywhere from a 4M to a 7M cap hit.  Or none.

I suspect Marcus will be trying to get Gary Harris size money, which would be a hit on the order of 12-15M per year.

Given that Baynes is a UFA and we will not have his Bird Rights, the maximum we would be able to pay him will be via the Mid Level Exception, which should be around 8.4M.    I have a hard time thinking he won't get paid that much if he continues to play at his current level.

Larkin probably has to go look for another job elsewhere or sign another vet minimum contract to stay with us.   

And of course if the LAL18 pick conveys, then that will have a pretty big impact on this.

It's really hard to envision how they can sign both Smart and Baynes and stay under the tax threshold.

Keep in mind also, when proposing solutions, that the following year will be the option years of both Al Horford and Kyrie Irving as well as the RFA years of Rozier and Theis.

Agree with everything except Baynes.  With the limited amount of cap room most teams will have next summer, I would be shocked if Baynes received more than the full MLE, and very surprised if he received more than the taxpayer MLE. Heís a useful player, but he turns 32 in the middle of next season and has never averaged 20 minutes per game in his career, this year included.  As valuable as heís been in his minutes on the court, that screams MLE to me.

Accordingly I think the Celtics can keep both him and Smart next year if they are willing to pay the luxury tax.  Assuming other teams believe the Celtics will be willing to go into the cap to keep Smart, that will keep his RFA offers low, meaning he might be stuck with either the qualifying offer or a longer deal at a price that enables the Celtics to afford him.  More likely the former than the latter.

The wildcard is the Lakers pick, both in terms of the additional salary as well as the fact that the player could be a center (meaning Baynesí would have competition for minutes) or Doncic (meaning the same for Smart).  While Iím more bullish on the prospect of us getting that pick than the average poster here, itís still well under a 50% chance that occurs.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2017, 04:49:18 PM »

Offline colincb

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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2017, 04:52:19 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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Please keep Aron Baynes.

I think we can find another breed of Marcus Smart out there.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2017, 04:54:46 PM »

Online Monkhouse

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Please keep Aron Baynes.

I think we can find another breed of Marcus Smart out there.

Pretty sure you can say the same for Aron Baynes too lol.

Also, since we don't have cap space next year, we should use that to re-sign Smart if he comes for a reasonable offer of 10-14 million per year.
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Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2017, 05:00:49 PM »

Online saltlover

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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

It isnít really missing the forest for the trees.  Baynes isnít going to command a 4-year deal.  Smart might wind up at the qualifying offer.  Itís not unreasonable to look at the decisions on those two from a short-term perspective.

Re: Cap Experts: Next Year - Keep Smart or Baynes?
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2017, 05:04:58 PM »

Online Monkhouse

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They can keep both and pay tax, but that's missing the forest through the trees. Cs, barring trades, are going to have big pay days down the road with Brown, Tatum, and Irving. That's what danny is looking at, not next season. In that context, why pay Smart big bucks if he hasn't found a way to put the ball through the hole after 4 years?

He shoots 76%+ from the FT line for his career and 79% after his rookie year, but when he's moving he can't stop himself from taking some bizarre shots. For some people the game never slows down... It's too bad, because he'd be a very good player if he was just an average shooter. Unfortunately, he's shooting worse this year and his TS% has gone down every single year.

The thing is if he shot extremely well, there is absolutely no way Ainge would be able to keep him.

Our only hope is that Smart re-signs for a team friendly deal.
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