Author Topic: Marvin Bagley Thread  (Read 9607 times)

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Re: Marvin Bagley
« Reply #75 on: January 08, 2018, 02:19:40 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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Quote
If Bagley is the next Chris Webber, he’s worth the hype.

The little bit I have seen him reminds me of Okafor 2.0 which scares me.
Not really remotely similar

I agree - Bagley has a much lighter frame, a very high motor, very fluid.

Not totally sold on him, but on balance I think he's worth the pick. My main worries with him are about where he slots in. He should develop into a plus defender at the 4 - he moves so well - but I wonder if he has the strength to play small-ball 5. He's great around the bucket in college, but how much of that is athleticism, where he won't have the same edge in the pros. And can he play as a true stretch four, with shooting and ability to attack closeouts. Again, I see enough to think he probably can do this- he's not a pure straight-line driver like Josh Jackson, and his shot doesn't look broken - but we're still projecting potential.

exactly

just nothing stands out.    He could turn out to be , another Horford ...which is not a bad thing


Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #76 on: January 12, 2018, 08:29:57 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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I really have not seen bagley shoot the three ball with any frequency.   It makes you question if he can play modern nba stretch 4.  Physically top tools though.   Capable of going 20/20 on any given night.

Bagley  doesn't show amazing defensive rim protection though.  To me he is more of a taller zbo.   He will get you buckets but I'm not convinced he can be the #1 guy on a championship team.  More of a McHale light in terms of scoring but no where near the defensive disruption.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #77 on: January 12, 2018, 10:18:09 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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I really have not seen bagley shoot the three ball with any frequency.   It makes you question if he can play modern nba stretch 4.  Physically top tools though.   Capable of going 20/20 on any given night.

Bagley  doesn't show amazing defensive rim protection though.  To me he is more of a taller zbo.   He will get you buckets but I'm not convinced he can be the #1 guy on a championship team.  More of a McHale light in terms of scoring but no where near the defensive disruption.

Weren't "they" saying the same thing about Tatum, re the 3 ball?  Point is you have to judge these guys on projection to what they'll be, not what they are.  Always a challenge to do that, but have to keep that in mind.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #78 on: January 13, 2018, 02:39:22 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I really have not seen bagley shoot the three ball with any frequency.   It makes you question if he can play modern nba stretch 4.  Physically top tools though.   Capable of going 20/20 on any given night.

Bagley  doesn't show amazing defensive rim protection though.  To me he is more of a taller zbo.   He will get you buckets but I'm not convinced he can be the #1 guy on a championship team.  More of a McHale light in terms of scoring but no where near the defensive disruption.

Weren't "they" saying the same thing about Tatum, re the 3 ball?  Point is you have to judge these guys on projection to what they'll be, not what they are.  Always a challenge to do that, but have to keep that in mind.
excellent point. Its the same with the defense . The coach k defense system make players look bad. Tatum and bagley both look worse at duke than they actually are 

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #79 on: January 13, 2018, 03:42:36 AM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Just let that MFing pick convey.

I’ll be happy with the runt of the top 5. Getting to pick between 2-4 of those prosepcts would be a bonus.
I AM A CELTIC

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #80 on: January 30, 2018, 06:14:58 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Here is an insider article on Bagley from "Cleaning the glass".
Originally there were video clips between paragraphs.

When it comes to the NBA draft, “wingspan” feels like an overused term. You hear it everywhere. There’s so much focus on whether a player is long that it turned into a draft night drinking game.

But there’s a reason for all of that focus: because it matters. Perhaps to a degree we still haven’t fully realized. If we look at the 200+ players who measured at least 6-feet 9-inches barefoot at the Draft Combine in the last 16 years, there are 12 players who made the All-Star team at least once. If we sort this group by the ratio of their wingspan to their height, we find something startling.

Of the 50 players with the longest wingspans relative to their height we find 8 of those All-Stars: Andre Drummond, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Brook Lopez. (Plus six more players who have started the majority of their career games played: Hassan Whiteside, Rudy Gobert, Nene, Brendan Haywood, Myles Turner, and Nikola Vucevic.)

Of the 50 players with the shortest wingspans relative to their height we find one All-Star (Chris Kaman) and three other players who started the majority of their career games (Mason Plumlee, Cody Zeller, and Troy Murphy).

Think about that. All we know about these players is their height, the length of their arms, and that they were good enough to be measured at the Draft Combine. We don’t know how well they played in the past. We don’t know how high they can jump, or how quickly they can move. We don’t know whether they can shoot, whether they can dribble, whether they can think the game, whether they have off court issues, whether they have medical red flags. Yet with one simple rule we can pretty effectively find the ones who ended up All-Stars.

What does this have to do with Marvin Bagley III? Well, certainly not everything. But something.
5 seconds that sum up the potential of Marvin Bagley III:

A 6-11 power forward comes out high and slides easily defending the pick-and-roll, recovers quickly to his man, swims around the post up to get the steal, then gets out in transition, handling the ball with speed and ease, takes off from more than halfway up the paint, and hangs in the air a beat longer than should be physically possible to slam it home with two hands. Whew.

All of the players projected to go at the top of the draft have special qualities: Doncic’s skill and smarts, Ayton’s power and agility, Bamba’s length. For Bagley it’s the easy athleticism demonstrated in that clip. He’s nimble, smooth, fluid, quick, and explosive.

Watch how high off the floor Bagley gets on some of these finishes, and how quickly he achieves that height:

Watch how quickly he jumps multiple times on this rebound (for context, watch the players around him)

Watch how he elevates on his hook shots. This level of elevation is not normal. On this hook he almost has to shoot it down into the rim from his release point:

But Bagley isn’t just a raw athlete. He also has great touch around the rim, with floaters, shots from odd angles off the glass, and the ability to get attempts to drop even after contorting his body through traffic:

That’s why Bagley has converted an absurd 75% of his shots at the rim so far this year, according to Synergy Sports, a FG% that ranks 9th out of the 272 players in Division I who have attempted more than 75 such shots.

At Duke most of Bagley’s offense has come either out of post ups and isolations or playing off of rebounds and transition. Notably, Bagley has only taken 17 shots rolling out of the pick-and-roll all season. That has led some to wonder if he is a member of a dying breed, a post up big man in an NBA era when the post up has never been less important.

But following the rookie season of another ACC double-double machine is instructive: John Collins went from getting 46% of his offense through post ups in his last season at Wake Forest, with only one shot per game as a roller out of the pick-and-roll, to 26% of his offense coming as a roll man with the Atlanta Hawks so far this year (and only 13 shots out of the post all season).

Collins’ college post game told us more than that he could post up. The footwork, athleticism, and touch that Collins displayed in the post are clear in how he scores in the NBA now:

The same is likely true of Bagley, which we’ve already caught glimpses of:

Bagley seems like the type of player where you glance up at the scoreboard near the end of the fourth quarter and think: “wait, when did he get 20 points?” Efficient scoring out of transition, putbacks, rolling to the rim, and playing off the pass isn’t as easily noticed, but it adds up.

To develop into a go-to scorer, though — a player where every one of his 20 points is noticed, a player who defenses have to scheme for, who can create efficient shots both for himself and his teammates — will require growth. Bagley has made some nice passes:

But he doesn’t seem like a natural passer. His instinct is to go to the rim and do what he can to score there, not to draw the defense and find the open man.

Beyond passing, to really put defenses on edge Bagley will need to score outside of the paint. And that is one of two huge questions that surround Bagley and will go a long way toward determining his value. His stroke doesn’t look bad.

But only about 15% of his field goal attempts have been from beyond the arc so far this season, and he’s made just 14 of those 42 tries. Additionally, Bagley has hit just 63% of his 147 free throw attempts, and past studies have found that free throw percentage is a valuable source of information for predicting a player’s NBA three point shooting. That’s been true prior to his time at Duke as well: according to MaxPreps, in 29 games in high school Bagley made 29% of 49 attempts from three and hit 67% of his 169 free throws. So even if Bagley were to catch fire and hit a high rate through the end of the year, we’d still be right to be suspicious of his long-range accuracy.

We don’t even have to look much further than the last few years at Duke for good examples of this. Both Brandon Ingram and Justise Winslow hit over 40% of their threes in college while attempting many more than Bagley is on pace for. But both had free throw percentages in the mid-to-high 60s, and sure enough both have struggled from beyond the line early in their careers. Ingram hasn’t even attempted many threes this season and has made just 30% of his career hoists, and Winslow is in a similar boat. How they develop as their careers continue is of course an open question, but they do illustrate the principle that a player with numbers like Bagley is one that we can’t count on to be able to hit a high rate of threes early in his career.

Which brings us to the second question: how good of a defender can Bagley be? If Bagley could play center, the shot is a moot point — or a bonus if he develops it. He could dive out of every screen and put enormous pressure on the rim with elite finishing. The only measurements I could find for Bagley put him at 6 foot, 9.5 inches without shoes at the age of 15. Even if he hasn’t grown since then, that’s taller than Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Nene, and Larry Sanders measured at the Draft Combine, the same height as DeMarcus Cousins, and in the range of Myles Turner, DeAndre Jordan, and Andre Drummond (who all measured at 6-9.75 barefoot). So he certainly seems tall enough to man the middle in the NBA.

But playing center is about more than height, of course. It’s about using that height to defend the rim and rebound, and that’s where we should have real concerns. If you’ve heard much about Bagley, you know that defense is the main blemish on his resume, and for good reason: there are many examples of plays you’d want someone with his size and athleticism to make that he just doesn’t.

It may be useful to look at Bagley’s defense through the “can’t/won’t/doesn’t know how” lens I laid out in Making the Transition:

I like to divide players’ defensive issues into three categories: “can’t”, “won’t”, and “doesn’t know how”. Some players are negatives defensively due to physical limitations: they might be too small or have short arms or limited quickness. That’s “can’t”. Some players hurt their teams because they just won’t defend: they don’t care enough about that end of the floor or don’t want to deal with the physicality or aren’t in good enough shape. And some players simply don’t have the habits and knowledge to be in the proper spots, to anticipate, to execute.

This framework is helpful because some of these limitations are more changeable than others. A team can’t get a player’s arms to grow. A head coach might be able to impact how much a player cares by emphasizing defense more, and allotting playing time based on performance at that end of the floor, though this doesn’t always work. But a coaching staff at least has a good chance of creating habits through film and practice.

There’s a lot of “doesn’t know how” in what we see with Bagley. Mistakes like this, where he shows a lack of awareness or technique:

But while these are bad plays, Bagley needs to be graded on a curve: he’s a freshman learning the intricacies of complex pick-and-roll defense. Relative to his peers, these mistakes aren’t especially glaring, and there seems to be evidence of improvement as the season has gone on. Growth is possible, and even expected — that’s why “doesn’t know how” is the least [dang]ing of the three categories.

Bagley’s defensive effort also appears fairly strong, so there’s not a ton of “won’t”. It’s hard to find plays in the halfcourt where he appears lazy or uncaring. His transition defense, though, leaves a lot to be desired:

He can run when he needs to, as he shows on the next possession
But he often will pause for a second or two before changing directions, and this has burned his team
This is a habit that will need to be broken. And that’s possible — his effort and improvement defensively in other areas gives one hope — but it’s far from a given.

The biggest concern with Bagley’s defensive struggles, though, is that they might fall mostly in the “can’t” bucket. And that’s where the discussion of wingspan comes in. That list of centers who were the same height as Bagley? Every single one of them measured with a wingspan of at least 7-feet 4-inches. 15-year-old Marvin Bagley measured at 7-foot flat. Even if he’s grown since then, Bagley’s reach doesn’t approach that of most centers, and, as we saw, those few inches really matter.

Bagley has blocked 3% of opponent two attempts so far this season, but it’s not necessarily because of poor positioning or lack of effort. Sometimes it’s just about those extra few inches that make the difference between a block and a whiff:

NBA players who had a similar block rate in college include: Zach Randolph, DeJuan Blair, Carl Landry, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Jared Sullinger, David West, and Jabari Parker. That is not an encouraging list, and points very strongly toward the idea that Bagley cannot provide adequate rim protection at center. It’s possible Bagley could develop his basketball IQ to the point that he could use his lateral and vertical quickness to hold his own, but there’s not much evidence of that right now.

So that’s where we’re caught. Because of the defensive limitations, it feels like Bagley is a stone-cold PF. But without a legitimate three point shot or paired with a rim protecting center who can shoot (a rare breed), that’s a recipe for cramped spacing on offense.

It comes down to this, then: a bet on Bagley is a bet on his shot or his mind.
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #81 on: January 31, 2018, 09:03:12 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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Thanks for posting that.  I agree that a bet on Bagley is a bet that he'll develop an outside shot.  His shot looks good to me, so I'd make that bet.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #82 on: May 10, 2018, 05:41:16 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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A lineup of Irving, Brown, Tatum, Bagley, and Horford could be mouthwatering.  Bagley's rebounding makes up for Horfords lack thereof.  And Horford's rim protection makes up for Bagley's weakness in that area.  Not to mention Bagley is quite an explosive athlete at the 4.  The Celtics would be playing above the rim a LOT with that lineup!

Also having 3 Duke players in Irving, Tatum, and Bagley on one NBA team has probably never been done.

Just a thought exercise for now.  The Lakers need to move into the top 5 of the draft without winning the lottery for this to even be possible.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #83 on: June 05, 2018, 04:39:30 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Here is a prediction:

Any GM that takes Bagley before Dončić in this draft will be fired before their rook deals are up.
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #84 on: June 05, 2018, 09:33:53 AM »

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For me, it's

1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. Ayton
4. Bamba
5. Jackson

Bagley is one of those prospects who did everything anyone asked of him, but he came in the season with such hype that now everyone nitpicks his game.

Somehow, different narratives formed around him that have prevented him from being at the top of this year's draft. Here are my responses:

1. He doesn't have elite length. The truth is, he has great length, but he doesn't have Bamba/Ayton length. His length is comparable to Horford and Love.
2. He isn't a great shooter. The truth is, he shot 40% from three at Duke this season.
3. He isn't a great defender. The truth is, while he doesn't have the gaudy block numbers other prospects have, he plays good position defense. He is every bit as versatile of a defender as Jackson, without the block numbers inside.
4. He is too left-hand dominate. The truth is, no one says that about right-handed players at a similar stage of development, but it is more noticeable when the player is left-handed. He has an elite knack for finishing in a variety of different angles with his left-hand. Any player with that kind of feel will be successful at the next level.
5. He is not a great passer. The truth is, I've watched enough of him this year to know that he makes advanced reads on the opposing defense. He isn't fully developed, but the raw ability is definitely there. The problem was that Duke struggled to capitalize due to their poor outside shooting.

Bagley is a full 8 months younger than Ayton, has a higher free throw rate than any player in the top 10 (including Ayton), and did all of this stuck on a Duke team that had terrible spacing issues.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #85 on: June 05, 2018, 09:36:45 AM »

Online Csfan1984

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Here is a prediction:

Any GM that takes Bagley before Dončić in this draft will be fired before their rook deals are up.
What if he slides to 6? Would that excempt a gm if more of them passed on him?

One could argue upside or need for Ayton, Bamba, Porter, Jackson and Bagley
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #86 on: June 05, 2018, 09:39:32 AM »

Online gouki88

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For me, it's

1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. Ayton
4. Bamba
5. Jackson

Bagley is one of those prospects who did everything anyone asked of him, but he came in the season with such hype that now everyone nitpicks his game.

Somehow, different narratives formed around him that have prevented him from being at the top of this year's draft. Here are my responses:

1. He doesn't have elite length. The truth is, he has great length, but he doesn't have Bamba/Ayton length. His length is comparable to Horford and Love.
2. He isn't a great shooter. The truth is, he shot 40% from three at Duke this season.
3. He isn't a great defender. The truth is, while he doesn't have the gaudy block numbers other prospects have, he plays good position defense. He is every bit as versatile of a defender as Jackson, without the block numbers inside.
4. He is too left-hand dominate. The truth is, no one says that about right-handed players at a similar stage of development, but it is more noticeable when the player is left-handed. He has an elite knack for finishing in a variety of different angles with his left-hand. Any player with that kind of feel will be successful at the next level.
5. He is not a great passer. The truth is, I've watched enough of him this year to know that he makes advanced reads on the opposing defense. He isn't fully developed, but the raw ability is definitely there. The problem was that Duke struggled to capitalize due to their poor outside shooting.

Bagley is a full 8 months younger than Ayton, has a higher free throw rate than any player in the top 10 (including Ayton), and did all of this stuck on a Duke team that had terrible spacing issues.
Especially good point regarding the left hand dominance vs right handed players where it's never mentioned. Only ever brought up because it looks weird to most people, as the vast majority of players are right handed.

Do you think he's strong enough to play the 5 off the bat, or would he take a year or two to get there?

I agree with your rankings too.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #87 on: June 05, 2018, 10:05:31 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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For me, it's

1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. Ayton
4. Bamba
5. Jackson

Bagley is one of those prospects who did everything anyone asked of him, but he came in the season with such hype that now everyone nitpicks his game.

Somehow, different narratives formed around him that have prevented him from being at the top of this year's draft. Here are my responses:

1. He doesn't have elite length. The truth is, he has great length, but he doesn't have Bamba/Ayton length. His length is comparable to Horford and Love.
2. He isn't a great shooter. The truth is, he shot 40% from three at Duke this season.
3. He isn't a great defender. The truth is, while he doesn't have the gaudy block numbers other prospects have, he plays good position defense. He is every bit as versatile of a defender as Jackson, without the block numbers inside.
4. He is too left-hand dominate. The truth is, no one says that about right-handed players at a similar stage of development, but it is more noticeable when the player is left-handed. He has an elite knack for finishing in a variety of different angles with his left-hand. Any player with that kind of feel will be successful at the next level.
5. He is not a great passer. The truth is, I've watched enough of him this year to know that he makes advanced reads on the opposing defense. He isn't fully developed, but the raw ability is definitely there. The problem was that Duke struggled to capitalize due to their poor outside shooting.

Bagley is a full 8 months younger than Ayton, has a higher free throw rate than any player in the top 10 (including Ayton), and did all of this stuck on a Duke team that had terrible spacing issues.
Especially good point regarding the left hand dominance vs right handed players where it's never mentioned. Only ever brought up because it looks weird to most people, as the vast majority of players are right handed.

Do you think he's strong enough to play the 5 off the bat, or would he take a year or two to get there?

I agree with your rankings too.

I think the question of "Is he strong enough to play the 5 off the bat" is a bit antiquated (not trying to offend). In other words, I think he will be fine. Any center big enough to bully him down low will also have to defend him in space (he is pretty quick) and close out to his 3s.

I think Bagley could provide the rim-diving vertical threat option the Cs haven't really had under CBS, but Bagley is not just a rim-diver. He is an extremely skilled and high IQ basketball player.

The bigger question about his defense is his positioning. Even the best defensive prospects struggle with rotations early on, especially big men. The college game is so different than the NBA game in defensive rotations. He will likely struggle with that, but so will Ayton, Jackson, and Bamba. If he can switch and force guards and wings into long 2s without fouling, he will be able to stay on the court.

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #88 on: June 05, 2018, 10:20:46 AM »

Online gouki88

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For me, it's

1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. Ayton
4. Bamba
5. Jackson

Bagley is one of those prospects who did everything anyone asked of him, but he came in the season with such hype that now everyone nitpicks his game.

Somehow, different narratives formed around him that have prevented him from being at the top of this year's draft. Here are my responses:

1. He doesn't have elite length. The truth is, he has great length, but he doesn't have Bamba/Ayton length. His length is comparable to Horford and Love.
2. He isn't a great shooter. The truth is, he shot 40% from three at Duke this season.
3. He isn't a great defender. The truth is, while he doesn't have the gaudy block numbers other prospects have, he plays good position defense. He is every bit as versatile of a defender as Jackson, without the block numbers inside.
4. He is too left-hand dominate. The truth is, no one says that about right-handed players at a similar stage of development, but it is more noticeable when the player is left-handed. He has an elite knack for finishing in a variety of different angles with his left-hand. Any player with that kind of feel will be successful at the next level.
5. He is not a great passer. The truth is, I've watched enough of him this year to know that he makes advanced reads on the opposing defense. He isn't fully developed, but the raw ability is definitely there. The problem was that Duke struggled to capitalize due to their poor outside shooting.

Bagley is a full 8 months younger than Ayton, has a higher free throw rate than any player in the top 10 (including Ayton), and did all of this stuck on a Duke team that had terrible spacing issues.
Especially good point regarding the left hand dominance vs right handed players where it's never mentioned. Only ever brought up because it looks weird to most people, as the vast majority of players are right handed.

Do you think he's strong enough to play the 5 off the bat, or would he take a year or two to get there?

I agree with your rankings too.

I think the question of "Is he strong enough to play the 5 off the bat" is a bit antiquated (not trying to offend). In other words, I think he will be fine. Any center big enough to bully him down low will also have to defend him in space (he is pretty quick) and close out to his 3s.

I think Bagley could provide the rim-diving vertical threat option the Cs haven't really had under CBS, but Bagley is not just a rim-diver. He is an extremely skilled and high IQ basketball player.

The bigger question about his defense is his positioning. Even the best defensive prospects struggle with rotations early on, especially big men. The college game is so different than the NBA game in defensive rotations. He will likely struggle with that, but so will Ayton, Jackson, and Bamba. If he can switch and force guards and wings into long 2s without fouling, he will be able to stay on the court.
No offence taken at all! The more I think about it, the more I'm coming around to Bagley. Pre-2017 draft I thought Tatum was a bit too unathletic, and he has proven me wrong countless times. I'm not saying he and Bagley are the same, but some of the general notes on them are similar.

I reckon on the offensive end the main thing he should focus on is free throws, which should come pretty easily. His form is solid, and as you mentioned gets to the line with ease, so that shouldn't be a problem.

If he can learn anything about defending the perimeter from Al he could be a frightening presence. If we could nab him while keeping Kyrie, JB, Gordon and JT together I'd be beyond ecstatic. Don't see it as likely, but DA does many things I never see coming

Re: Marvin Bagley Thread
« Reply #89 on: June 05, 2018, 10:45:03 AM »

Offline td450

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For me, it's

1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. Ayton
4. Bamba
5. Jackson

Bagley is one of those prospects who did everything anyone asked of him, but he came in the season with such hype that now everyone nitpicks his game.

Somehow, different narratives formed around him that have prevented him from being at the top of this year's draft. Here are my responses:

1. He doesn't have elite length. The truth is, he has great length, but he doesn't have Bamba/Ayton length. His length is comparable to Horford and Love.
2. He isn't a great shooter. The truth is, he shot 40% from three at Duke this season.
3. He isn't a great defender. The truth is, while he doesn't have the gaudy block numbers other prospects have, he plays good position defense. He is every bit as versatile of a defender as Jackson, without the block numbers inside.
4. He is too left-hand dominate. The truth is, no one says that about right-handed players at a similar stage of development, but it is more noticeable when the player is left-handed. He has an elite knack for finishing in a variety of different angles with his left-hand. Any player with that kind of feel will be successful at the next level.
5. He is not a great passer. The truth is, I've watched enough of him this year to know that he makes advanced reads on the opposing defense. He isn't fully developed, but the raw ability is definitely there. The problem was that Duke struggled to capitalize due to their poor outside shooting.

Bagley is a full 8 months younger than Ayton, has a higher free throw rate than any player in the top 10 (including Ayton), and did all of this stuck on a Duke team that had terrible spacing issues.

I agree with some of your points. Bagley's length is not an issue, because he makes up for it with super quick hops. He's going to score like crazy in the NBA.

However, saying he is every bit as versatile a defender as Jackson? Bagley is not a plus defender right now, and Jackson is easily the best big defender in this draft.

He's really young and athletic, but he does not have a body that is likely to fill out much. The danger with drafting him is that he becomes a scorer, but doesn't make his team much better.

Several of the bigs in this draft have spectacular talent in one area, but also have major flaws. Its a tough group to evaluate. That's why I prefer Carter. He may not quite have the upside some of these guys have but he's the safest bet by a significant margin, and will likely be the easiest one to get.