Author Topic: Trump's tax reform plan  (Read 12537 times)

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Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #300 on: December 11, 2017, 04:37:46 PM »

Offline byennie

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In the meantime, Treasury admits the tax cuts are getting financed by hand-waving and well-wishing and are definitely maybe not paying for themselves.

https://www.vox.com/2017/12/11/16761716/treasury-dynamic-analysis-tax

is there any INDEPENDENT analysis of what this plan actually does? I for the life of me want to know why the RIGHT is supporting it (and voted for it) if does more harm than good for the middle class.

The majority of all taxpayers, and the majority of all tax payers in each income bracket, will get a tax cut for the next seven years. When the rate cuts expire in 8 years, taxes would potentially increase, if DC couldnít resolve the issue.

If you take the standard deduction and have 2 kids or fewer, youíre likely to see a pretty decent tax cut.  If you itemize, itís a trickier analysis.

This may be more or less true, but it reeks of bad statistics to me. So, the *median* tax consequence will be negative, but what is the percentage change for the middle class vs the wealthy?

Who will be impacted when we have a $1T deficit and the only things large enough to cover it are Social Security and Medicare? Will those tax brackets have more money or less when their SS checks are cut, their Medicare checks are cut, interest rates go up, health care costs go up, inflation rises?

It's called bait and switch. "Here's a slightly larger tax refund... oops, you'll be screwed overall unless you're already wealthy".
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Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #301 on: December 11, 2017, 04:45:49 PM »

Offline heyvik

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Is there any Republican on CelticsBlog that actually supports this bill? If so, I'd just like to know why?

Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #302 on: December 11, 2017, 05:08:12 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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In the meantime, Treasury admits the tax cuts are getting financed by hand-waving and well-wishing and are definitely maybe not paying for themselves.

https://www.vox.com/2017/12/11/16761716/treasury-dynamic-analysis-tax

is there any INDEPENDENT analysis of what this plan actually does? I for the life of me want to know why the RIGHT is supporting it (and voted for it) if does more harm than good for the middle class.

Because they genuinely believe in the farce concept of trickle down economics and believe this bill will let to prosperity due to that concept.

I dont think anyone actually believes in trickle down anymore. Its more that this way they can get a few billions to the 1% now at the cost of a few hundred extra to the middle class and the poor, then, when the deficit is too big, gut medicaid and social security, which the 1% werent going to use anyway, and let the middle class and poor fend for themselves. It is all a continuation of the republican strategy to max out the wealth gap into 2 extremes. There is no republican fiscal policy anymore that benefits anyone other than the top tier.

Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #303 on: December 11, 2017, 05:24:14 PM »

Offline byennie

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In the meantime, Treasury admits the tax cuts are getting financed by hand-waving and well-wishing and are definitely maybe not paying for themselves.

https://www.vox.com/2017/12/11/16761716/treasury-dynamic-analysis-tax

is there any INDEPENDENT analysis of what this plan actually does? I for the life of me want to know why the RIGHT is supporting it (and voted for it) if does more harm than good for the middle class.

Because they genuinely believe in the farce concept of trickle down economics and believe this bill will let to prosperity due to that concept.

I dont think anyone actually believes in trickle down anymore. Its more that this way they can get a few billions to the 1% now at the cost of a few hundred extra to the middle class and the poor, then, when the deficit is too big, gut medicaid and social security, which the 1% werent going to use anyway, and let the middle class and poor fend for themselves. It is all a continuation of the republican strategy to max out the wealth gap into 2 extremes. There is no republican fiscal policy anymore that benefits anyone other than the top tier.

Sadly I see (otherwise?) intelligent people being duped all over again. They are just changing the terms. "Job creation" is the new trickle-down. Give money to the rich and they don't horde it, they invest in businesses which create jobs!

It's some sort of magical fairy dust math, where even though it's plainly obvious that wealthy people always get *wealthier* from tax breaks, there's STILL so much left over that it indirectly creates more jobs and more wages. You know, as opposed to just giving a tax break to the people who actually work those jobs, which increases consumer spending, which directly creates more jobs and more sales. It fails even the most basic common sense, with a bunch of handwaving about the economy needing wealthy patrons to succeed.
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Re: The Republican War on College
« Reply #304 on: December 11, 2017, 06:03:13 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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And you wonder why this tax reform stunt is being conducted under the cover of darkness.  This bill only has something like 32% approval rating.  Imagine how popular it is going to be when people begin to learn what is actually in it.

I don't remember a more purely partisan bill in my lifetime.  This is the dumbest thing the republicans have ever tried to do.

Re: The Republican War on College
« Reply #305 on: December 11, 2017, 06:08:04 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I know many republicans that feel the government has no obligation to help people in any regards to going to college. Stopping people from letting them write off taxes is only a nudge in the true goal. Just look how they always want to raise student loan interest when ever they can.

Basically I get the vibe that Public works, Law, Military and "Resource refining/acquiring" is all they want the government to be involved with. Social or medical funding is to be done by charitable parties. Most believe you fend for yourself unless of course when they themselves are in need of help but they will pay it back.......

Just my two cents on it.
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Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #306 on: December 11, 2017, 06:09:10 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Who will be impacted when we have a $1T deficit and the only things large enough to cover it are Social Security and Medicare?

We had $1+ trillion deficits four straight years under Obama.  Why is raising the debt $100 billion per year now a bad thing? Will the debt be a concern if Trump passes an infrastructure bill that primarily benefits union and government-adjacent workers?


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Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #307 on: December 11, 2017, 06:56:50 PM »

Offline byennie

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Who will be impacted when we have a $1T deficit and the only things large enough to cover it are Social Security and Medicare?

We had $1+ trillion deficits four straight years under Obama.  Why is raising the debt $100 billion per year now a bad thing? Will the debt be a concern if Trump passes an infrastructure bill that primarily benefits union and government-adjacent workers?

You think a new tax bill should be compared to the 4 year period after our economy crashed in 2008? After which, of course, the deficits were cut in half the next 4 years.

Yes, infrastructure spending is completely different from corporate tax breaks, because it creates valuable public *assets*. I'm not sure what your point is other than implying that I "like" deficits based on some sort of social priority. I like deficit spending that produces economic growth and tangible assets, which this bill does neither.
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Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #308 on: December 11, 2017, 07:27:47 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Who will be impacted when we have a $1T deficit and the only things large enough to cover it are Social Security and Medicare?

We had $1+ trillion deficits four straight years under Obama.  Why is raising the debt $100 billion per year now a bad thing? Will the debt be a concern if Trump passes an infrastructure bill that primarily benefits union and government-adjacent workers?
You want to run larger deficits when you're on the bottom end of the business cycle, and smaller deficits when you're near the peak. That's provided that you actually care about the state of public finance. Otherwise, you can just run up the debt and give your cronies a congratulatory tax cut.
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Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #309 on: December 11, 2017, 07:36:11 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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After which, of course, the deficits were cut in half the next 4 years

Really...What Math are you using to get that assumption, because looking here I do not see that improvement in 2008.

Quote
Year     Deficit in Billions      Debt Increase     Deficit/GDP      Major Events
2008             $459                 $1,017     3.1%               Bank bailout. QE.
2009           $1,413                 $1,632     9.8%               Stimulus Act
2010         $1,294                 $1,905     8.6%              Obama tax cuts. ACA. Simpson-Bowles.
2011           $1,300                 $1,229     8.3%              Debt crisis.
2012     $1,087                 $1,276     6.7%              Fiscal cliff.
2013           $679                    $672             4.1%              Sequester. Government shutdown.
2014     $485                         $1,086     2.8%              Debt ceiling.
2015           $438                            $327     2.4%              Defense = $736.4 b.
2016           $585                        $1,423             3.1%              Defense = $767.3 b.
2017           $666                           $672              3.4%              Defense = $812.3 b.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306


I see study debt increases, though some improvement in 2013-2016.   

Re: The Republican War on College
« Reply #310 on: December 11, 2017, 07:40:22 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Did Colleges really think that they could make war on the GOP without repercussions?   I don't agree with some of the tax changes and think college is a path that aids in upward mobility.  But seriously folks, colleges have been waging a steady war on conservatism for years.   I guess it was payback time.   Not saying it is right, but it is clear to me that is what is happening.

Quote
The elimination of the deduction for interest paid on student loans really kills me.

Agree

This is payback for high tax states that vote a lot for the Dems, Mass, NY, and Cali. and they are taking a big hit at colleges too.

Re: Trump's tax reform plan
« Reply #311 on: December 11, 2017, 08:24:12 PM »

Offline byennie

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After which, of course, the deficits were cut in half the next 4 years

Really...What Math are you using to get that assumption, because looking here I do not see that improvement in 2008.

Quote
Year     Deficit in Billions      Debt Increase     Deficit/GDP      Major Events
2008             $459                 $1,017     3.1%               Bank bailout. QE.
2009           $1,413                 $1,632     9.8%               Stimulus Act
2010         $1,294                 $1,905     8.6%              Obama tax cuts. ACA. Simpson-Bowles.
2011           $1,300                 $1,229     8.3%              Debt crisis.
2012     $1,087                 $1,276     6.7%              Fiscal cliff.
2013           $679                    $672             4.1%              Sequester. Government shutdown.
2014     $485                         $1,086     2.8%              Debt ceiling.
2015           $438                            $327     2.4%              Defense = $736.4 b.
2016           $585                        $1,423             3.1%              Defense = $767.3 b.
2017           $666                           $672              3.4%              Defense = $812.3 b.

https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

I see study debt increases, though some improvement in 2013-2016.

2013-2016 ($547 avg) vs 2009-2012 ($1274 avg), a 57% reduction not including inflation.

The point was, the years immediately after the financial crisis are not a fair measuring stick for a new tax bill, especially if you're just going to conveniently ignore the 4 years after.

Also the $1T deficit increase over 10 years is built on the assumption that the economic growth proposed actually happens. If it doesn't, it will be much worse, and there are signs of that possibility (e.g. CEOs talking about stock buybacks, manufacturing jobs already relocated, etc)
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Re: The Republican War on College
« Reply #312 on: December 11, 2017, 09:15:01 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Did Colleges really think that they could make war on the GOP without repercussions?   I don't agree with some of the tax changes and think college is a path that aids in upward mobility.  But seriously folks, colleges have been waging a steady war on conservatism for years.   I guess it was payback time.   Not saying it is right, but it is clear to me that is what’s happening

I’m pretty sure you have that backward. Right now, the GOP is at war with anybody or anything that refuses to echo the party line. It’s weirdly Soviet. Consider global warming. It’s a bunch of nerds reading thermometers, sampling ice cores, and coming up with computer models. There isn’t, or shouldn’t be, anything inherently political about it. You cannot find another conservative party anywhere in the modern world that expresses  hostility for climate science – or that calls it some kind of conspiracy. Only in this country. In Congress, you have representatives voting to prevent the centers for disease control from looking into the causes of handgun deaths. They are so afraid of a debate that they want to make everybody stop talking. With the current tax bill, the University of Chicago – no liberal bastion – surveyed 42 economist to ask whether the Republican tax plan was going to generate enough revenue to pay be revenue-neutral. One thought it might; the rest said  it would not. These were not liberal economists; they Represented a spectrum of opinion from right to left. But they were not on the payroll of a political party. We also have attacks on the Congressional budget office and the joint committee on taxation. Again, not democratic outfits or liberal outfits.

There’s an acceleration of a trend that started about 20 years ago; an attempt to destroy anybody who doesn’t toe the Republican Party line.

Re: The Republican War on College
« Reply #313 on: December 11, 2017, 09:42:02 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

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Did Colleges really think that they could make war on the GOP without repercussions?   I don't agree with some of the tax changes and think college is a path that aids in upward mobility.  But seriously folks, colleges have been waging a steady war on conservatism for years.   I guess it was payback time.   Not saying it is right, but it is clear to me that is what is happening.

Quote
The elimination of the deduction for interest paid on student loans really kills me.

Agree

This is payback for high tax states that vote a lot for the Dems, Mass, NY, and Cali. and they are taking a big hit at colleges too.

Did Colleges really think that they could make war on the GOP without repercussions?   I don't agree with some of the tax changes and think college is a path that aids in upward mobility.  But seriously folks, colleges have been waging a steady war on conservatism for years.   I guess it was payback time.   Not saying it is right, but it is clear to me that is what is happening.

Quote
The elimination of the deduction for interest paid on student loans really kills me.

Agree

This is payback for high tax states that vote a lot for the Dems, Mass, NY, and Cali. and they are taking a big hit at colleges too.

What accounts for an approximate 20 point decline in Republicans' view on colleges having a positive effect on the country?



I'm guessing (1) that most of this shift is among the rural conservatives in the Midwest and South and (2) that Congress is not too concerned about negative backlash from this base in terms of tax changes to higher education.

I honestly can't fathom how 58% of Republicans view colleges as negative - I could see that percentage perhaps in the South, but not Republicans as a whole.  I'd think that educated folks - and there's many highly educated and intelligent Republicans - who would vouch for the importance of education beyond high school.  The fact that science, philosophy, etc. are taught at colleges shouldn't be a disqualifying factor.

If Republicans want to dismiss higher education as having a negative effect on the country and choose not to attend college or some other educational opportunity/advanced training (e.g trade) they shouldn't complain if they can't find well-paying jobs in their lifetime.  If you have no specialized skills to offer, then that's probably how it's going to be especially as the world becomes ever more competitive.


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Re: The Republican War on College
« Reply #314 on: December 11, 2017, 11:12:19 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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my wife works in higher ed and they are lamenting the new tax bill that will make it harder for the next generation. Again, I say why would the Republican Senators vote for this????

Because if they don't their donors won't provide funding for their campaigns, anymore.  It's really as simple as that, unfortunately.

It's really hard to understand how any rational, compassionate person can get fully behind things like ending the medical expense deduction.

Most regretably, I believe that you just answered your own question.

Quote
Of course, Susan Collins justified her vote by saying she has a written promise that that won't be in the final version of the bill (along with several other amendments she's monitoring).   But that lack of clarity about just what the heck the mess was that they DID vote for begs a lot of scary questions.

Oh she does, now?  Well thank god ::).



Did Colleges really think that they could make war on the GOP without repercussions?   I don't agree with some of the tax changes and think college is a path that aids in upward mobility.  But seriously folks, colleges have been waging a steady war on conservatism for years.   I guess it was payback time.   Not saying it is right, but it is clear to me that is what is happening.

Umm, what on Earth are you talking about?  Seriously, what war has been waged by higher education against conservatism, because I seem to have, like, completely missed it.