Are the 2018-2019 Celtics the Best 3 Point Shooting Starting Lineup Ever?

[hwangjini_1]

We are going to be a handful for teams to guard on the perimeter this year.  I don't even care if we are the best ever, or 4th best or whatever.  All (5) starters can hit the 3 and are a weapon from range.  Can't wait to see this offense once we get everyone back up to speed.

And this is before the annual "Marcus Smart has been working on the deep ball" update. Aren't we due for that soon?

It'll be some shaky Instachat video of him hitting 4 3s in a row, with a "fundamental" change in form that will never be seen again after about 3 minutes of regular season ball.

and i am sure he is coming into camp "in the best shape of his life." ^TM 

[CF033]

We have unarguably one of the best 3pt shooting starting fives of all time. I wouldn't necessarily say the best but it is way way up there.

I will say this though, we are going to be extremely hard to defend this year and I bet that is going to lead to a lot of open looks.

Can't wait!

[KungPoweChicken]

I don’t expect Tatum to be as efficient from three as he was last season. Hartford, Brown, and Hayward shot career highs or near career highs as well in their last season of play. That said, I still expect them to be very good from deep.

[moiso]

I don’t expect Tatum to be as efficient from three as he was last season. Hartford, Brown, and Hayward shot career highs or near career highs as well in their last season of play. That said, I still expect them to be very good from deep.

You might be right about Tatum because as people started figuring out that they better guard him closer his efficiency declined.  And we know he gets a lot of hype so guys will want to stop him even more this year.


I think Brown's percentage will decrease next year as well.  I don't really see the 64% free throw shooter continue to hit 40% from 3 next season.

[jpotter33]

The starters avg 3pt % and "best 3pt shooting starting lineup" are not the same thing.

Agree and disagree. You need context.

For instance. You can have all 5 starters shoot over 45% from 3 but if each starter only takes 1 3pointer per game,  then you could be dealing with a ridiculouly small sample size that you need to throw out. Also, it's hard to call that team a 3 point shooting starting team. But, if you have a starting lineup that shoots 40 3 pointers a game at 45% but one of the starters doesn't shoot any 3 pointers, you kinda have to give that lineup a nod for best 3point shooting starting lineup while they have the best 3 point percentage.

You could have a team that has the highest starters avg 3pt % and the best 3pt shooting starting lineup. It still isn't the same thing.

"best 3pt shooting" includes an implicit claim about the volume of shooting.

Also, (and correct me if I'm wrong) jpotter mentioned the % of each of the starters, but did not calculate their collective avg 3pt %.

I definitely agree about context and with the examples you brought up.

I did calculate their collective average three point percentage in the OP - 41.3%. Also, I made sure to not put this claim/question solely on the notion of collective average three point percentage, which is why I discussed that every single member is both an above average threat from beyond the arc plus a threat to take it to the hole, which further supports the notion that they are arguably a top three point unit of all time.

Also, I disagree about your conception of best “3 pt shooting team” inherently implying a high volume of threes. The term/conception is ambiguous at best and relies on interpretation, which is part of the reason I made this post to clarify (a) how we are calculating the “best” three point shooting unit, and (b) if it is our current starters. Yes, volume is certainly an important consideration in the analysis, but I think you are putting too much into the top end of that metric rather than treating it as a threshold metric, which is how I think that metric should function in this analysis.

Last year’s GS starting lineup shot 26.8 threes per game and made 10.9 threes per game. Compare that to our starting lineup shooting 22.4 threes per game and making 9.1 a game. I think we certainly meet the volume threshold for this analysis, and I don’t think the difference between those numbers completely erases our substantial collective average percentage advantage and the versatility our 5-out philosophy provides compared to their unit of 3 elites, 1 poor shooter, and 1 non-shooter.

[Hoopvortex]

I don’t expect Tatum to be as efficient from three as he was last season. Hartford, Brown, and Hayward shot career highs or near career highs as well in their last season of play. That said, I still expect them to be very good from deep.

You might be right about Tatum because as people started figuring out that they better guard him closer his efficiency declined.  And we know he gets a lot of hype so guys will want to stop him even more this year.


I think Brown's percentage will decrease next year as well.  I don't really see the 64% free throw shooter continue to hit 40% from 3 next season.

You're a "glass half empty" guy, am I right? 

And why not, "I don't really see the 40% from 3 shooter continue to hit 64% from the line next season"?

[SparzWizard]

We have unarguably one of the best 3pt shooting starting fives of all time. I wouldn't necessarily say the best but it is way way up there.

I will say this though, we are going to be extremely hard to defend this year and I bet that is going to lead to a lot of open looks.

Can't wait!

Teams are licking their chops waiting to defend the perimeter against these guys.

Therefore, it's time to work on their games inside the 3-point arc, and their free-throws.

[moiso]

I don’t expect Tatum to be as efficient from three as he was last season. Hartford, Brown, and Hayward shot career highs or near career highs as well in their last season of play. That said, I still expect them to be very good from deep.

You might be right about Tatum because as people started figuring out that they better guard him closer his efficiency declined.  And we know he gets a lot of hype so guys will want to stop him even more this year.


I think Brown's percentage will decrease next year as well.  I don't really see the 64% free throw shooter continue to hit 40% from 3 next season.

You're a "glass half empty" guy, am I right? 

And why not, "I don't really see the 40% from 3 shooter continue to hit 64% from the line next season"?

Not really in general... Brown is just one of those guys who doesn't look like a 40% 3 point shooter to me.  The foul shooting is just an example.  But I hope you are right, and his free throw percentage gets into the mid 70's next year.  That would be huge.

[Hoopvortex]

I don’t expect Tatum to be as efficient from three as he was last season. Hartford, Brown, and Hayward shot career highs or near career highs as well in their last season of play. That said, I still expect them to be very good from deep.

You might be right about Tatum because as people started figuring out that they better guard him closer his efficiency declined.  And we know he gets a lot of hype so guys will want to stop him even more this year.


I think Brown's percentage will decrease next year as well.  I don't really see the 64% free throw shooter continue to hit 40% from 3 next season.

You're a "glass half empty" guy, am I right? 

And why not, "I don't really see the 40% from 3 shooter continue to hit 64% from the line next season"?

Not really in general... Brown is just one of those guys who doesn't look like a 40% 3 point shooter to me.  The foul shooting is just an example.  But I hope you are right, and his free throw percentage gets into the mid 70's next year.  That would be huge.

Agreed.

And while I couldn't resist my little witticism, FT shooting is a better predictor of shooting in general than 3-pt shooting, which is very volatile.

There are exceptions... Bruce Bowen comes to mind. But given the importance of the dribble drive for Brown's game, shooting FT's at least at a grade-B level is imperative for Jaylen.

[CF033]

We have unarguably one of the best 3pt shooting starting fives of all time. I wouldn't necessarily say the best but it is way way up there.

I will say this though, we are going to be extremely hard to defend this year and I bet that is going to lead to a lot of open looks.

Can't wait!

Teams are licking their chops waiting to defend the perimeter against these guys.

Therefore, it's time to work on their games inside the 3-point arc, and their free-throws.

I doubt teams are licking their chops at the prospect of defending our starting unit. This team that Ainge has put together is special.

Our guys are plenty capable at getting to the hoop/working inside the arc. All five can get to the hole and are capable of creating their own shots.

IMO you have to go back to the 80s Celts to find a team as good. Just my opinion, I think we're currently better than the 07/08 team overall when you look at the coach and lineup from top to bottom.

[CF033]

Also, I'll add that I don't believe that you can get a good case for everyone's shooting ability based on their free throw %. In Jaylen's case I think it's psychological from the line. When you're playing at game speed you really don't have time to overthink your shot, you just get the ball in your hands and launch it. Whereas at the line you slow down for a few seconds dribbling and have time to overthink things.

[blink]

We are going to be a handful for teams to guard on the perimeter this year.  I don't even care if we are the best ever, or 4th best or whatever.  All (5) starters can hit the 3 and are a weapon from range.  Can't wait to see this offense once we get everyone back up to speed.

And this is before the annual "Marcus Smart has been working on the deep ball" update. Aren't we due for that soon?

It'll be some shaky Instachat video of him hitting 4 3s in a row, with a "fundamental" change in form that will never be seen again after about 3 minutes of regular season ball.

I didn't say anything about Smart's 3 point ability.  I am not depending on some big improvement by anyone either.  Just get all 5 on the court healthy.

[Hoopvortex]

Also, I'll add that I don't believe that you can get a good case for everyone's shooting ability based on their free throw %.

Not everyone, obviously. In a previous post in this thread I cited Bruce Bowen as an example of a player who was a decent 3pt shooter and awful ft shooter.  But Jaylen is going to be shooting a lot of ft’s in his career, so he needs to up his effectiveness immediately.

[Sophomore]

We have unarguably one of the best 3pt shooting starting fives of all time. I wouldn't necessarily say the best but it is way way up there.

I will say this though, we are going to be extremely hard to defend this year and I bet that is going to lead to a lot of open looks.

Can't wait!

Teams are licking their chops waiting to defend the perimeter against these guys.

Therefore, it's time to work on their games inside the 3-point arc, and their free-throws.

I doubt teams are licking their chops at the prospect of defending our starting unit. This team that Ainge has put together is special.

Our guys are plenty capable at getting to the hoop/working inside the arc. All five can get to the hole and are capable of creating their own shots.

Yeah - I don’t understand why teams would be looking forward to defending us at the 3-point line. We were 5th in the league last year in 3-PT %age. We’re adding Hayward and hopefully more games of Kyrie. That plus more open looks from improved shot-creation should put us in the running for league-best on a high volume of attempts.

I do agree we need to finish better at the rim - but we should. Hayward will help, plus a year of development for Brown, Tatum, Rozier, even Smart. Can’t wait to see a stronger Tatum, a craftier Brown, maybe TRoz upping his skill at passing and creating for others. We forget - good as the young guys are they are *so* young and they’re focused, disciplined workers with great length and talent. They are still growing their game. Should be a lot of fun.