Author Topic: Should Danny consider moving Horford?  (Read 1190 times)

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Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2017, 02:46:16 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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He's a nice facilitator on offense, but now with Hayward gone, should Danny consider moving him at the deadline, or next summer?

His game would seem to age well, but to me he doesn't move the needle at all.

If we could clear his salary we might be able to make a run at PG13 or Jimmy Butler in the next few years, or even Demarcus Cousins .

Maybe keep him around to be a vet presence for the young guys, then move him at the draft?
I think Horford has already moved the needle quite a bit.  His presence has opened things up and made things easier for a lot of guys.  I think Horford is just as responsible for IT's career year as obviously IT himself, but also just as responsible as Stevens.  It's not a coincidence that we had the best record in the east the first year we had him.  He is unselfish, he's a leader, he plays defense, he sets picks, he passes the ball, he spaces the floor.  He moves the needle a whole lot more than his numbers indicate.

So, so true.

The problem is most basketball fans don't seem to have enough of an understanding of the game to recognize this.

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2017, 03:03:02 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I see we have arrived on overreaction season already.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2017, 10:46:05 PM »

Offline OldSchoolDude

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No, we need Al to mentor DeAndre Ayton next year and then back him up for the last year of his deal.  After that try and resign him on the cheep if he still has anything left in the tank, he's already not the player he was in Atlanta. 

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2017, 10:56:20 PM »

Offline liam

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I see we have arrived on overreaction season already.

I'm already checking the mock drafts for 2018! ;)

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2017, 10:57:33 PM »

Online CelticsElite

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No, we need Al to mentor DeAndre Ayton next year and then back him up for the last year of his deal.  After that try and resign him on the cheep if he still has anything left in the tank, he's already not the player he was in Atlanta.
exactly this. 

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2017, 11:22:01 PM »

Offline GRADYCOLNON

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Al has been very good for us.  Although, definitely wouldn't mind moving him for the right guy. 

Our team looks too often for him make something happen on offense, which is ironic because that what he wants the other four to do for him.  This is why losing Hayward was so tough. With Hayward on the court, Al isn't asked to carry the load.  With Hayward, he isn't our second best player and he can finally play the role we need him to fulfill. 

Without Hayward, we need a player that can readily assume responsibilities for creating offense to help out Kyrie.  I'd love to get someone like Jokic but that is a pipedream, so all I think we can do is hope Brown and Tatum can grow up quicker.  Maybe next year or last year of his contract we can try trading Horford (though his value will be all but used up)

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2017, 11:23:06 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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He's a nice facilitator on offense, but now with Hayward gone, should Danny consider moving him at the deadline, or next summer?

His game would seem to age well, but to me he doesn't move the needle at all.

If we could clear his salary we might be able to make a run at PG13 or Jimmy Butler in the next few years, or even Demarcus Cousins .

Maybe keep him around to be a vet presence for the young guys, then move him at the draft?

If you do this right now, no marquee talent FA is going to want to sign with the Celts

I actually don't know if this is true.  In an age where all-stars control the league (e.g., Kyrie), the Celtics just dumped their best player and heart and soul of the team without any warning.  Can management actually look any less trustworthy?
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Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 12:35:26 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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No way we trade Horford after GH's injury.  Why would DA even think about it.  It would be like forfeiting the season, which we are only 1 game into.  It would also look bad to future FAs we go after.

The best thing we could do is add someone with the injury exception.  Not sure who that would be or if they would even target a SF/Wing or not.

On the contrary...at the start of this season, we had legitimate hope of being able to beat or compete with the Cavs over a 7 game ECF series.  That meant that although this team was built to peak 2-3 years from now, we still looked like a team that could win a LOT of games now. 

After, we still have a very serious chance of finishing with a top 4 seed in the East - but our chance of competing with Cleveland in any way has dropped to just a little above zero.  This season pretty much becomes about sitting around and watching the development of Kyrie, Rozier, Tatum, Brown and Smart. 

That all means we are now 100% about the future, and it means we will not have an opportunity to compete for a finals appearance until next season - when Horford will be 32 years old and entering the second last year of his contract.

I'm struggling to envision Horford getting re-signed to come back here 3 years from now - by then he'll be 34 and probably wont won't fit with the our young (likely run-and-gun) play style.  Seems to make little sense keeping him here for the next 2 years letting our young guys build Chemistry with him only to potentially see him gone by the time everything comes together.  May as well move him on to another team for a productive young big-man prospect who can develop and grow with our current young core.

I know this will not be a popular opinion, but you have to look at these things objectively - moving Horford to a good playoff team right now is probably the best move for him and for the Celtics. 

Some players who would be young enough to potentially make sense? 

- Greg Monroe (27)
- Enes Kanter (25)
- Jonas Valanciunas (25)
- Andre Drummond (24)
- Nerlens Noel (23)
- Steven Adams (24)
- Jusuf Nurkic (23)
- Nikola Vucevic (26)
- Willie Cauley Stein (24)

Needless to say a lot of those guys are players who are significant downgrades from Horford right now, and so additional compensation (picks or additional players) would be expected.

Steven Adams plus picks (for example) could make a lot of sense - adding Horford to that OKC core would instantly make them legit GSW competitors, and they would likely be willing to offer Adams and a ton of draft pick compensation in return.  Tatum and Adams could make a phenomenal future frontcourt for us, and additional picks wouldn't hurt at this point either. 

Noel plus future Mavs picks could work very nicely.  A young, athletic, defensive minded big like Noel could be perfect alongside Tatum and the Mavs are likely to be hot garbage 1-2 years from now.  But giving them Horford to pair with Barnes/Dirk might be exactly what the Mavs want in order to give Dirk one or two more years of genuinely competitive basketball before he retires.

Monroe and picks could make some sense - a veteran big like Horford would be exactly what the Bucks need to mentor that strong young core...and if the consolidation price (i.e. accompanying picks) are worthwhile enough, then adding Monroe to our starting 5 could make us a truly elite offensive team by the time Hayward comes back.  Monroe is also an excellent passer (not quite as good as Horford, but still excellent) and would instantly fix our rebounding woes.   

Jonas Valanciunas would also make sense.  The Raptors are in win-now mode with Lowry and Derozan, and Horford is an upgrade right now over Jonas.  His unselfish nature makes him a perfect fit for a Toronto team with two scorers who need the ball.  A lineup of Lowry, Derozan, Ibaka, Horford would be an immediate threat to the Cavs.  Meanwhile Jonas is a 25 year old double-double machine with tremendous upside who would could be the Celtics starting center for the next 8 years.

Not saying this is a move we HAVE to make, but the argument for it certainly is there.  Looking at our current roster sans-Hayward, Horford really stands out to me as a square peg in a round hole.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 12:49:14 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 12:43:20 AM »

Offline Kuberski33

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If we could clear his salary we might be able to make a run at PG13 or Jimmy Butler in the next few years, or even Demarcus Cousins .

Given a choice between Horford and Cousins, 30 NBA GM's would choose Horford. One guy you can win with - the other is a career loser.  Every pro team he's ever played on has sucked.

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2017, 12:47:02 AM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Horford is a way bigger impact player than anyone named in this thread.  Maybe Steven Adams but really, stats aren't the whole story

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #25 on: October 19, 2017, 12:59:12 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Horford is a way bigger impact player than anyone named in this thread.  Maybe Steven Adams but really, stats aren't the whole story

While this is true right now, he is also 31 years old earning $27M a year on a team that likely isn't going to be a legit contender until Hayward comes back to 100% health - which may well be midway through next season.

By that time he will be 32 years old, earning $27M a year, and in the final 18 months of his contract...on a team filled with run and gun youngsters.

It might simply make more sense for Boston to move him for a guy who is less impressive now, but has high upside.  A guy like Jonas (25) or Steven Adams (24) who could still be putting up nightly double-doubles for the Celtics 5 years from now when Kyrie, Brown and Tatum are all in their prime.

And looking at it from Horford's perspective - wouldn't it be better for him if he could go to a team like the Raptors or Thunder, so he can spend the rest of this season battling with Cleveland or Golden State in the conference finals...rather then blotting around averaging 12 and 7 adding wins to a Celtics team that has no hope of winning anyway?

Before, I expected our starting five to be Kyrie (25), Brown (20), Hayward (27), Morris (28) and Horford (31) - that's an average age of 25.0 without Horford, 26.2 with him.  Fairly young core, but still mature enough to contend. 

Now I'm expecting out starting five to be Kyrie (25), Smart (23), Brown (20), Tatum (19) and Horford (31).  That's an average age of 21.8 without Horford or 23.6 with him.  That's an uber-young team, and I just don't see how Horford fits either right now in the short term, or later on in the long term.

Plus with Hayward out, what we would really need in order to compete right now would be a top shelf scorer to temporarily take his place - Horford just doesn't have the ability to provide that.  It seems clear as day that his offensive production is dropping year by year, while he's becoming more and more pass-oriented.  He's a perfect fit as a glue guy on a team filled with scorers, and that's not us.   

Here's an idea..

Lets trade Horford to Clevleand for Tristan Thompson and the Brooklyn 2018 1st haha
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 01:23:58 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #26 on: October 19, 2017, 01:17:35 AM »

Offline Kuberski33

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You're completely missing the value of Horford's intelligence in Brad's system - which requires smarts to play.  He's going to be the perfect 5 to go along with team that they've assembled. 

As far as the age thing, he's got the kind of game where he'll still be an effective player into his late 30's - probably not a max player, but still a very good one.  I'd say his chances of sticking around once his contract is up are pretty good.

And he can still guard any 4-5 in the league one-on-one inside the arc - including Joel Embid.

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2017, 01:24:46 AM »

Offline Snakehead

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Also I would say Horford's defense has been very good through the first two games.  Deserves recognition.
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Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #28 on: October 19, 2017, 01:37:36 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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You're completely missing the value of Horford's intelligence in Brad's system - which requires smarts to play.  He's going to be the perfect 5 to go along with team that they've assembled. 

As far as the age thing, he's got the kind of game where he'll still be an effective player into his late 30's - probably not a max player, but still a very good one.  I'd say his chances of sticking around once his contract is up are pretty good.

And he can still guard any 4-5 in the league one-on-one inside the arc - including Joel Embid.

I see absolutely zero evidence to suggest this.

His production has declined in every one of his last 3 seasons, and looking at how he started his first two games this year that trend looks to only be continuing. 

Horford isn't very big for a big man.  When he was younger he was one of the more athletic bigs in the league, and that allowed him to be elite at the four / five. 

As he's gotten older his athleticism has dropped off to somewhere between average and above average, and that has allowed him to remain effective as a big - albeit no longer elite, and now far more dependant on being set up by others (rather than being able to get his own shots).  He's still very effective defensively largely due to his lateral mobility, which allows him to switch and help on some wings and some quicker bigs, and also allows him to beat his opponents into defensive positions.  As much as his IQ helps with that, it's also very dependant on his mobility - which is currently still pretty good, albeit not what it once was.

As he continues to get older his quickness will eventually (sooner rather than later) drop off to below average - at that point he will no longer be able to do much beyond hitting open jumpers on offense (he's almost there already) and will no longer be able to offer the defensive versatility that he provides right now - that versatility is dependant on him having the lateral quickness to switch and help on some wings and quicker bigs, and to get into defensive positions before his opponents.

As he gets older he is clearly declining across most statistical areas including outright scoring, offensive efficiency (FG%, FTR, etc), rebounding and defence.  The one area where he's not declining is passing - and as good a passer as he is, there won't be much use 5 years from now for a big man who is effectively a 6'10" / 250 pound Andre Miller.

My belief is that if you are going to move Horford at any time, now is the time to do it - while he is still perceived as a top shelf big man, and still has high value to potential contenders.  If you wait another year or two his game (and value, along with it) will decline to the point where trading him not gong to bring back anything of real value.

I would be very surprised if the idea hasn't at least flashed by Danny Ainge's mind a couple of times.  If he has the balls to trade IT the way he just did, moving Horford would be (comparatively speaking), not a difficult decision to make.

Re: Should Danny consider moving Horford?
« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2017, 01:43:15 AM »

Offline Kuberski33

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You're going to be disappointed then because he's not going anywhere.