The best player on the best team is always a safe bet.
That's why I like Durant.
Lost in all of the debate about the MVP last year was the fact that Durant was having as good a season as anybody until he got hurt. If he had played 70+ games, I think he would have represented a really easy compromise choice for people agonizing over the distinctions between Leonard, Harden, and Westbrook.
The Warriors will likely lead the league in point differential, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall record.
Durant will probably be the best statistical and eye-test player on the Warriors. That should make him a pretty easy choice for MVP if the Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Cavs all finish in roughly the same are record-wise (i.e. a good distance behind the Warriors).