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Espn article predicting MVP
« on: October 12, 2017, 01:12:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Espn article looks at statistical and historical trends to predict MVP and predict Leonard will win. I think that would be great recognition for him. The difference in that spurs team against the Warriors was mind boggling. I could see KD winning it if the warriors win 75 games and he plays far superior to curry/Thompson. Dark horse candidates could be brow or KAT with dominant stats if their team defy expectations. I don't expect a serious candidate from the Celtics. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/20982956/predicting-2017-18-nba-mvp

Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2017, 01:31:42 PM »

Offline gift

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Lebron is a good candidate as well. I wouldn't advise him to go for it, but if he does he's probably got it.

All the other top candidates gained star teammates to split the stats with, while Lebron lost his main stat stuffer so his scoring may even go up. Cavs may keep pace with team record due to the weaker conference.

Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2017, 01:40:30 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Lebron is a good candidate as well. I wouldn't advise him to go for it, but if he does he's probably got it.

All the other top candidates gained star teammates to split the stats with, while Lebron lost his main stat stuffer so his scoring may even go up. Cavs may keep pace with team record due to the weaker conference.

I think it would be really misguided for Lebron or the coaching staff to let Lebron go for MVP. He needs to have his minutes down. While they lost Irving, rose and wade will take a decent amount of shots. I also expect IT to be concerned with his stats given he will have like 100 million riding on 4 months of play from him.

Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2017, 02:09:41 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The best player on the best team is always a safe bet.

That's why I like Durant.

Lost in all of the debate about the MVP last year was the fact that Durant was having as good a season as anybody until he got hurt.  If he had played 70+ games, I think he would have represented a really easy compromise choice for people agonizing over the distinctions between Leonard, Harden, and Westbrook.

The Warriors will likely lead the league in point differential, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall record.

Durant will probably be the best statistical and eye-test player on the Warriors.  That should make him a pretty easy choice for MVP if the Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Cavs all finish in roughly the same are record-wise (i.e. a good distance behind the Warriors).
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Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2017, 02:24:57 PM »

Offline Moranis

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They don't really predict the MVP, they just go through the prior winners and say Kawhi meets more of the prior winners criteria then anyone else, but that is no where near the same thing as actually predicting Kawhi will win it. 
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Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2017, 03:10:48 PM »

Offline jambr380

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The best player on the best team is always a safe bet.

That's why I like Durant.

Lost in all of the debate about the MVP last year was the fact that Durant was having as good a season as anybody until he got hurt.  If he had played 70+ games, I think he would have represented a really easy compromise choice for people agonizing over the distinctions between Leonard, Harden, and Westbrook.

The Warriors will likely lead the league in point differential, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall record.

Durant will probably be the best statistical and eye-test player on the Warriors.  That should make him a pretty easy choice for MVP if the Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Cavs all finish in roughly the same are record-wise (i.e. a good distance behind the Warriors).

I don't think there was any chance Durant (or Curry) had any chance of winning the MVP regardless of stats/health. The Warriors were coming off a 73 win season; Durant wasn't going to help that situation.

I agree that I would like to see Kawhi win - he seems deserving - but will SAS be a serious contender out of the West?

I also kind-of feel bad for Harden; I think he probably should have won MVP the first year that Curry won it and I also think he probably could have deserved it last year based on stats and team record. I don't love that everybody fainted over Westbrook's [arbitrary] triple double #s and automatically gave it to him.

Honestly, Kyrie has an outside shot. Horford and Hayward are facilitating stars; they will of course greatly help with winning, but I expect Kyrie to put up some pretty gaudy #s and for the Cs to finish #1 in the conference. That, alone, should put him in the '16-'17 IT category, at least.

Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2017, 03:49:26 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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They don't really predict the MVP, they just go through the prior winners and say Kawhi meets more of the prior winners criteria then anyone else, but that is no where near the same thing as actually predicting Kawhi will win it.

The sub-heading is literally "predicting the 2017-2018 MVP." I get that it didn't pick your favorite player, but come on man this is getting beyond fanboy status to split hairs over the editorial terms Espn chooses for its articles. It's embarrassing

Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2017, 03:51:57 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The best player on the best team is always a safe bet.

That's why I like Durant.

Lost in all of the debate about the MVP last year was the fact that Durant was having as good a season as anybody until he got hurt.  If he had played 70+ games, I think he would have represented a really easy compromise choice for people agonizing over the distinctions between Leonard, Harden, and Westbrook.

The Warriors will likely lead the league in point differential, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall record.

Durant will probably be the best statistical and eye-test player on the Warriors.  That should make him a pretty easy choice for MVP if the Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Cavs all finish in roughly the same are record-wise (i.e. a good distance behind the Warriors).

I don't think there was any chance Durant (or Curry) had any chance of winning the MVP regardless of stats/health. The Warriors were coming off a 73 win season; Durant wasn't going to help that situation.

I agree that I would like to see Kawhi win - he seems deserving - but will SAS be a serious contender out of the West?

I also kind-of feel bad for Harden; I think he probably should have won MVP the first year that Curry won it and I also think he probably could have deserved it last year based on stats and team record. I don't love that everybody fainted over Westbrook's [arbitrary] triple double #s and automatically gave it to him.

Honestly, Kyrie has an outside shot. Horford and Hayward are facilitating stars; they will of course greatly help with winning, but I expect Kyrie to put up some pretty gaudy #s and for the Cs to finish #1 in the conference. That, alone, should put him in the '16-'17 IT category, at least.

I think the Spurs will probably win their usual +50 plus games and Leonard will be their only player even in all-star consideration. If that happens he deserves it with harden, Westbrook, lebron, curry, Durant, Davis all having a fellow all star or two.

Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2017, 04:02:33 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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Leonard is the most likely player to get it.

- Lebron will need to take it relatively easy during the regular season and will be 33.
- Westbrook is now playing on a team with Carmelo and Paul George.
- Durant plays with three other stars.

You might make the case for Harden, assuming that the Rockets take another leap forward and Chris Paul doesn't detract from Harden's perceived value to that team. I just think Leonard's value as a do-it-all defensive/offensive star is going to be overwhelming this year.
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Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2017, 04:29:41 PM »

Offline Moranis

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They don't really predict the MVP, they just go through the prior winners and say Kawhi meets more of the prior winners criteria then anyone else, but that is no where near the same thing as actually predicting Kawhi will win it.

The sub-heading is literally "predicting the 2017-2018 MVP." I get that it didn't pick your favorite player, but come on man this is getting beyond fanboy status to split hairs over the editorial terms Espn chooses for its articles. It's embarrassing
That has nothing to do with it, as I actually think Leonard has the best betting odds to win the MVP this year.  But the ESPN article actually didn't do anything but pick various historical characteristics and then say Leonard hits most of those so he will win.  I mean their list of 20 includes Lamarcus Aldridge, Isaiah Thomas (who is out for half the season if not more), and Kevin Love and doesn't include players like DeMarcus Cousins, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, etc.  It just isn't a practical exercise as the way they did it because they put no thought into it.  They just looked at historical characteristics and said he hits the most of those trends so he will win.

And as I said, I think Leonard would have to be the favorite to win the award given that almost all of his main competition comes from teams that have multiple great players and the two guys that finished ahead of him last year added HOF level talent to their teams this year.  Had they actually done that sort of analysis, this article would have had a lot more value.
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Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2017, 04:31:57 PM »

Offline GreenShooter

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They don't really predict the MVP, they just go through the prior winners and say Kawhi meets more of the prior winners criteria then anyone else, but that is no where near the same thing as actually predicting Kawhi will win it.

The sub-heading is literally "predicting the 2017-2018 MVP." I get that it didn't pick your favorite player, but come on man this is getting beyond fanboy status to split hairs over the editorial terms Espn chooses for its articles. It's embarrassing
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Re: Espn article predicting MVP
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2017, 07:31:30 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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Is ESPN still around?