Author Topic: Win Projection for Season  (Read 2769 times)

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #90 on: October 18, 2017, 02:13:29 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Per Ryan Bernardoni:

Quote
The most commonly referenced statistical projections from ESPN and 538 now show the Celtics as a below .500 team. Other models probably aren’t likely to be too much better. Those ESPN models, based on Real Plus Minus and Box Plus Minus, didn’t particularly like the C’s to begin with. Removing their best all around player puts them near the bottom of the East’s playoff crawl.


I think those statistical models are a bit too cool on the Celts, but it does show you that it's not crazy to think they may not be in the top half of the East anymore.

Don't worry, Pho—according to some, Brown and Tatum are gonna be all-stars or the next coming of Paul Pierce or Larry Bird, or the first coming of Paul Bird or Larry Pierce (depending on whom you ask), Smart's finally gonna get that pesky shooting thing figured out (what a coincidence—just in time for a new contract!), and the Cs still have a reeeeaaaaaalllly good shot of taking down the Cavs in a 7-game series. Sunshine and lollipops for everyone.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #91 on: October 18, 2017, 02:23:25 PM »

Offline seancally

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Well if anything maybe we can all finally agree to pump the brakes on C's season expectations in general, and instead of hoping for another premature ECF or Finals push we can just be happy with development.

Brad Stevens is all about continuous improvement. Win total belies progress - our team was probably not quiiiiite as good as win total last year. I'd prefer a team that's better than win total, or equal to win total, than one that wins more than it should and is badly exposed in the playoffs. Maybe that's just semantics.

So put it this way: This year was not going to result in a Championship either way (IN ALL LIKELIHOOD). Next year, here's hoping we get Gordon back and healthy. Meantime, Jaylen and Jayson get a chance to develop with more minutes than they may otherwise have gotten. So next year's team might just end up being better than it would have, pre-Hayward injury.

How's THAT for some green-colored goggles??
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #92 on: October 18, 2017, 02:30:47 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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If you lose a 20PPG All-Star and think your team is only going to lose a few more games to 5 more ganes, I think you are fooling yourself. If Hayward is only worth 3-5 more wins a season then the front office made a huge mistake in giving him $120 million.

How many games a player is 'worth' becomes marginally reduced as a team gets better.

Hayward would probably be worth over 10+ wins to a bad team.   But he's realistically worth closer to +5 wins to a team already as strong as the Celtics.   That's not a knock on him.   It's the reality that winning those extra games becomes harder.

The reason is because you are already beating the crap teams whether you have that guy or not.  The extra wins have to come from the more difficult opponents.     When you have only won, say 40 games, you still have a lot of wins that could have been within easy reach if you were 'just a little better'.   But when you already won 50 games, then there are fewer wins within easy reach left to get.

So the marginal impact of adding a better player becomes smaller, the better your base team is.

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #93 on: October 18, 2017, 02:33:06 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Quote
So next year's team might just end up being better than it would have, pre-Hayward injury.

How's THAT for some green-colored goggles??

Greener than green, but plausible!
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #94 on: October 18, 2017, 02:34:23 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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If you lose a 20PPG All-Star and think your team is only going to lose a few more games to 5 more ganes, I think you are fooling yourself. If Hayward is only worth 3-5 more wins a season then the front office made a huge mistake in giving him $120 million.

How many games a player is 'worth' becomes marginally reduced as a team gets better.

Hayward would probably be worth over 10+ wins to a bad team.   But he's realistically worth closer to +5 wins to a team already as strong as the Celtics.   That's not a knock on him.   It's the reality that winning those extra games becomes harder.

The reason is because you are already beating the crap teams whether you have that guy or not.  The extra wins have to come from the more difficult opponents.     When you have only won, say 40 games, you still have a lot of wins that could have been within easy reach if you were 'just a little better'.   But when you already won 50 games, then there are fewer wins within easy reach left to get.

So the marginal impact of adding a better player becomes smaller, the better your base team is.



Great post. TP

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #95 on: October 18, 2017, 02:41:14 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I definitely still think this is a 50+ win team. This year's team, even without Hayward, already looks like a better team than last year's. I expect Kyrie will take over games once he gets comfortable, in much the same fashion IT did last year, except Kyrie is clearly a better passer.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #96 on: October 18, 2017, 02:50:40 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I'm dropping from 56 wins to 46 wins. 4th in the East and I think they'll have a good chance of advancing to the second round.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #97 on: October 18, 2017, 03:01:13 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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If you lose a 20PPG All-Star and think your team is only going to lose a few more games to 5 more ganes, I think you are fooling yourself. If Hayward is only worth 3-5 more wins a season then the front office made a huge mistake in giving him $120 million.

How many games a player is 'worth' becomes marginally reduced as a team gets better.

Hayward would probably be worth over 10+ wins to a bad team.   But he's realistically worth closer to +5 wins to a team already as strong as the Celtics.   That's not a knock on him.   It's the reality that winning those extra games becomes harder.

The reason is because you are already beating the crap teams whether you have that guy or not.  The extra wins have to come from the more difficult opponents.     When you have only won, say 40 games, you still have a lot of wins that could have been within easy reach if you were 'just a little better'.   But when you already won 50 games, then there are fewer wins within easy reach left to get.

So the marginal impact of adding a better player becomes smaller, the better your base team is.



Great post. TP

Yup.  Mmmmm nailed it.


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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #98 on: October 18, 2017, 03:05:06 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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45 wins.

Need to be very healthy and need a leap from Brown (like he showed last night) also need Tatum to play at ROY level.

Team could battle for a 4/5 seed. Dont see us beating out Cleveland, Washington or Toronto.

Think Milwaukee is a tossup.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #99 on: October 18, 2017, 04:04:11 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I'm dropping from 56 wins to 46 wins. 4th in the East and I think they'll have a good chance of advancing to the second round.
I just don't see 46 wins as the 4th seed this year.  I think there are going to be a lot of teams in the 45-50 win range, maybe as many as 8 being above 45 wins.  There aren't going to be any high 50 or 60 win teams and there are going to be a lot of really bad teams like low 20's or worse. 
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #100 on: November 07, 2017, 10:00:01 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Does the 9-2 start alter the opinions in this thread?  Or are we still collectively holding our breath and waiting for the bottom to drop out?
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #101 on: November 07, 2017, 10:24:55 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Does the 9-2 start alter the opinions in this thread?  Or are we still collectively holding our breath and waiting for the bottom to drop out?
The C's aren't going to win 82% of their games. There will be tough stretches. I'm hopeful they can play through those tough stretches with the kind of resolve they've shown so far.

I'm sticking with my post-Hayward injury prediction of 46 games and hoping I'm underselling them.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #102 on: November 07, 2017, 10:41:41 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Im still think 46-50 range without Hayward . 


Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #103 on: November 07, 2017, 10:49:01 AM »

Offline footey

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I predicted 60 before the Hayward injury.

After the injury, I was too depressed to update my projection.

I will stick with my 60, although realistically, I think that is too high, despite our fast start.  Our lack of offensive depth is going to catch up with us eventually.   We will come to really miss Hayward as the season gets more serious.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #104 on: November 07, 2017, 10:51:41 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Anything above 53 is fantastic. 55 is my guess.

If you lose a 20PPG All-Star and think your team is only going to lose a few more games to 5 more ganes, I think you are fooling yourself. If Hayward is only worth 3-5 more wins a season then the front office made a huge mistake in giving him $120 million.

How many games a player is 'worth' becomes marginally reduced as a team gets better.

Hayward would probably be worth over 10+ wins to a bad team.   But he's realistically worth closer to +5 wins to a team already as strong as the Celtics.   That's not a knock on him.   It's the reality that winning those extra games becomes harder.

The reason is because you are already beating the crap teams whether you have that guy or not.  The extra wins have to come from the more difficult opponents.     When you have only won, say 40 games, you still have a lot of wins that could have been within easy reach if you were 'just a little better'.   But when you already won 50 games, then there are fewer wins within easy reach left to get.

So the marginal impact of adding a better player becomes smaller, the better your base team is.


Great post. TP
I think there is more.
This value of player adding a certain number of wins to a team is very tricky and it is a subjective. It is not measurable at all. Even further, it would fluctuate from team to team as you wrote. Lets use Hayward as an example;
- If Hayward goes to 2017/18 Atlanta team, he would (as I said, a very subjective value) add 11 wins and they would go from 24 to 35 wins.
- If he comes here, 53 win base, he adds 5 wins.
- If he goes to GSW, 67 win base, he would add just 2.

It is like GDP. Undeveloped country like Mali or Mongolia can raise its GDP much easier by 10%, than a country like Sweden or Japan could.

Attaching a single number of wins to a player is flawed in its entirety, as it resides on 2 unmeasurable variables.

How much is MJ worth? I say...+16.
Would Michael Jordan add 16 wins to a 67 win team?
« Last Edit: November 07, 2017, 10:57:39 AM by Androslav »
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