Author Topic: Win Projection for Season  (Read 2961 times)

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #30 on: October 12, 2017, 10:14:50 PM »

Offline flybono

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58 24

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #31 on: October 13, 2017, 09:20:16 AM »

Offline Big333223

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This feels like 56-26 to me.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #32 on: October 13, 2017, 09:24:02 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I'm gonna go with 53 wins. I think this team will go through some slumps as they earn their stripes and that will obviously affect the win total. We are also quite thing at C which could come back to bite us if we suffer an injury there (such as Baynes now).

I think both us and Cleveland will have some tough trips oout West which will supress the win totals as well, I'm certainly not expecting us to hit the 60 mark.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2017, 10:23:32 AM »

Online saltlover

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57-25.

17-13 against the West.
40-12 against the East.

(I’m playing the Trifecta.)

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #34 on: October 13, 2017, 10:27:36 AM »

Offline PaulAllen

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both losses to BK
:)

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #35 on: October 13, 2017, 10:35:08 AM »

Offline ChillyWilly

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57-25.

17-13 against the West.
40-12 against the East.

(I’m playing the Trifecta.)

What's the payout if you hit all 3?

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2017, 10:38:52 AM »

Online saltlover

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57-25.

17-13 against the West.
40-12 against the East.

(I’m playing the Trifecta.)

What's the payout if you hit all 3?

People are welcome to give me triple the Tommy Points when this thread is resurrected at the end of the season.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #37 on: October 13, 2017, 11:01:39 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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61
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #38 on: October 13, 2017, 11:58:15 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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57 wins, but with a point differential that is more indicative of a ~53 win team.  Modest improvement from last year, and "overachieving" relative to point differential (again), but the lack of veteran big man depth and working out the kinks chemistry-wise will keep us short of 60 wins.  Good for 1st or 2nd in the east, with all of the top 4 seeds having 53+ wins (aka as many or more than the #1 seed last year)
I'm bitter.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #39 on: October 13, 2017, 12:13:40 PM »

Offline colincb

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Depends on how much progress we see from the youngsters and Hayward's integration to a lesser extent. Last year IT carried this team, had an outrageous shooting year, and had the highest TS% among guards (after tossing out a few guards who played less than 250 minutes). IT was outrageous in the 4th quarter and allowed the Cs to exceed their projected win total based on net points differential by 5 games because they won many close games. That being said, adding more shooting and more depth should allow all players more open shots.

I'll shoot for 55 wins just to throw out a number, but IF the youth (Brown and Tatum) mature their games fast enough or carry their pre-season performances into the regular season (Smart and Rozier), then 60 games is possible. That is a lot of IFs though.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #40 on: October 13, 2017, 12:40:34 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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My initial projection is too unrealistic, so Im honing in my bias and say 81-1.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #41 on: October 13, 2017, 12:45:59 PM »

Offline footey

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57-25.

17-13 against the West.
40-12 against the East.

(I’m playing the Trifecta.)

Remind me at the end of the season, but you're on.

What's the payout if you hit all 3?

People are welcome to give me triple the Tommy Points when this thread is resurrected at the end of the season.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #42 on: October 13, 2017, 01:55:39 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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60-22

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #43 on: October 13, 2017, 02:17:56 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'm curious where the people who think the Celts are going to win ~60 think the Celts will rank in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, and what the point differential will be.


Last year, the Celts were 8th in offense and 12th in defense.

They had a point differential of +2.7, which converted to a Simple Rating Score of 2.25, which was 8th best in the league.


The San Antonio Spurs, who won 61 games last year, had a point differential of +7.2, which converted to a Simple Rating Score of +7.13, 2nd best in the league.

The Rockets won 55 games and had a point differential of 5.8, and a SRS of 5.84.  That was 3rd best in the league.


The last time a team in the East won 60+ games was in 2015 when the Hawks won it with a point differential of +5.4, and a SRS of +4.75.

Prior to that, the Heat won 66 games in 2013 with a SRS of 7.03.



Based on all that, if you're saying the Celts are going to win 60, you're saying they're going to at least double, possibly triple their point differential from last year.

You're also saying that the Celts will likely end up in the top 5 in either defensive efficiency or offensive efficiency.


That would be a fairly major leap from last season.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 02:33:10 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #44 on: October 13, 2017, 02:42:56 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Hmm, torn between lowering expectations since this roster is a major overhaul from last year and they'll need time to figure out how best to play as a team VS the East is loaded with weak teams that they should easily beat while learning how to play as a team.

I'll go with 58 wins.