We essentially got Hayward, Morris, Baynes and Kyrie for Bradley, Crowder, Zizic and the 2018 Brooklyn 1st. I'll take that every day over the proposed George rental trade. I like George more than either Hayward or Kyrie, but its too much to give up for one ear of George.
Hayward and Baynes were free agents. We didn't get them as a result of any trades, "essentially" or otherwise.
So, it's Kyrie + Morris + Smart + non-lotto picks on one side, or IT + George + BRK pick + whatever we get for AB on the other.
Paul George is making $19.5M
Smart and Crowder add up to $11.3M. As you said, we also would have had to move Avery Bradley to a third team willing to take on his $8.8M. That would have put our total outgoing salary at $20.4M - allowing us to take Paul George back while saving about $900k
Problem. Is that saving enough to create the space we WOULD have needed to sign Hayward?
Lets say it isn't. We no longer have Avery Bradley, which mean means the Detroit trade doesn't happen. We also no longer have Smart or Crowder, so who do we have who would be of any interest to other teams, who we could potentially trade out to clear the cap space to sign Hayward? Probably nobody, so there's an option that the signing doesn't happen and we lose out on Hayward. Then we also don't have Crowder, which means the Kyrie trade never happens. So instead of having Kyrie for 2 years and Hayward for 4-5 years, we'd have Paul George for a one year rental, and Isaiah (on an expiring contract) potentially sitting on the IR list until January.
Now we can't start Smart because he went out in the George trade, we can't start Isaiah because he's out for half the season, we can't start Bradley or Crowder as they are both gone. So what do we do at PG? Do we start Rozier and leave ourselves with no backup PG? That's pretty weak. Do we start Paul George at PG, then Brown and Tatum and SG and SF, putting our faith in two 19/20 year olds to carry our starting 5?
Also who do we start at PF, since we would not have done the Detroit trade, so we would not have Morris on the roster. Would we start Theis at PF, having Brown/Tatum/Theis making up 60% of our starting 5? Or do we start Baynes at centre, Horford at PF = and have Theis as our only big off the bench? Who would come off the bench at PG/SG/SF then?
The answers to all of these questions are messy.
Now less say will give ALL this up and sacrifice the season to get George, and at the end of the season he walks. Now IT wants his $30M, so you have to give him that or else he walks - so you now have about $60m (two thirds of the cap) tied up in a 29 year old 5'10" PG coming off a hip injury, and a 32 year old underized declining big who can't create his own offense. There Given we'd have another $10m or so invested in Brown and Tatum, we would not have enough cap space left to chase another max free agent that next year, so where are we left?
Because that roster now makes us a weak 7-8 seed at best, so all of our hope would hinge on that 2018 Brooklyn pick, which (given the current state of the east) could easily fall outside of the top 5.
As opposed to now - we have a 25 year old top-5 PG locked in for two years at a pretty bargain salary, and if he signs an extension (which has a high probability, as he seems to love it here) we have that locked in for the next 5-6 years. Plus a 27 year old Gordon Hayward locked in for the next 4 years. Plus a solid Al Horford locked in for the nex2-3 years. Plus Brown and Tatum. Those 5 guys alone give us a strong core to allow sustained deep playoff runs in the east for the next 4 years.
So, unless we are in a magical fairy world where all unexpected things go well and George freakishly decides to stay here, and IT agrees to sign for less (or recovers perfect and goes back to scoring 30 a game) - I don't see how trading for Paul George would have put us in a better spot.