Aldridge saying we are getting close in Smart extension

[Darío SpanishFan]

If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.

The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.

Correct.

Only sort of correct.  It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed.  There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.

Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.

Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .

Very doubtful.  They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons.  They have Covington for perimeter defense.

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

[Celtics4ever]

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

You sign him.   This was the biggest flaw in his game.  It is early to tell.

[Darío SpanishFan]

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

You sign him.   This was the biggest flaw in his game.  It is early to tell.

Yes, what I mean is that maybe he improves so much this year that somebody offers him a max contract in 2018 and we have to match... So getting him signed at 16-20 million could be wiser.

We'll have to give Irving a max contract in 2019 and Brown's extension will also come soon, so our salary cap situation may get worse. I trust our front office a lot, but numbers don't lie.

[jambr380]

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

You sign him.   This was the biggest flaw in his game.  It is early to tell.

Yes, what I mean is that maybe he improves so much this year that somebody offers him a max contract in 2018 and we have to match... So getting him signed at 16-20 million could be wiser.

We'll have to give Irving a max contract in 2019 and Brown's extension will also come soon, so our salary cap situation may get worse. I trust our front office a lot, but numbers don't lie.

We won't be able to afford Smart at $20M/yr, regardless, so we might as well wait it out and see what the market will bear. As it stands, Smart is a back-up - a very good back-up, but a back-up, nonetheless - and no team can afford to pay a player who isn't starting $20M/yr.

Unfortunately for all of us Smart-lovers, we may end up losing him if a team like the Nets or Bulls offer him a lot of money. Luckily, though, it is a pretty strong FA market and (as others have mentioned) money for non-star players isn't as good as it has been the last two years.

[tazzmaniac]

If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.

The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.

Correct.

Only sort of correct.  It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed.  There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.

Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.

Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .

Very doubtful.  They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons.  They have Covington for perimeter defense.

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

What are the chances of that happening?  Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season.  Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1.  In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%.   That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason.  Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration? 

If Embiid is healthy and they have Covington, they don't need Smart for defense.  If Embiid isn't healthy, their rebuild needs a lot more work and it wouldn't be smart to invest in Smart. 

[Darío SpanishFan]

@Jambr: The question of Smart being affordable was not my purpose, but to think about when he would be cheaper to keep with us. I'm with you, 2018 free agency will have many heavyweights and we could resign/match an offer sheet for less money. But it may be too risky if Smart keeps improving as he seems to be doing this preseason, in his body (thinner) and his shot (more accurate and better selected).

@Tazz: I've never been confident is his improvement until this preseason. The shots are not only falling, but his mechanics have changed quite a lot with many hours of working (and maybe an autoemployed shooting coach). I do think he will be much better...but yes, let's wait and see. Because a much better Smart is a tricky weapon for us, given his future free agency and our complicated salary situation.

Thanks for your opinions, very appreciated.

[IDreamCeltics]

If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.

The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.

Correct.

Only sort of correct.  It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed.  There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.

Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.

Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .

Very doubtful.  They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons.  They have Covington for perimeter defense.

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

What are the chances of that happening?  Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season.  Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1.  In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%.   That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason.  Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration? 

If Embiid is healthy and they have Covington, they don't need Smart for defense.  If Embiid isn't healthy, their rebuild needs a lot more work and it wouldn't be smart to invest in Smart.

Two things:

1. Everyone on the team is going to look better offensively this year by virtue of the fact that there are now two elite scoring options in Hayward and Irving.

2.  Smart doesn't have to become a great or even good shooter from range to become a legitimate offensive threat. Improving his scoring around the rim is another way he could become a bonafide offensive plus.

[saltlover]

If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.

The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.

Correct.

Only sort of correct.  It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed.  There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.

Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.

Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .

Very doubtful.  They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons.  They have Covington for perimeter defense.

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

What are the chances of that happening?  Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season.  Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1.  In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%.   That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason.  Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration? 

The chances are higher than they are for a lot of poor shooters.

1) He brings a lot of on-court value even when not shooting well, so he’ll continue to have opportunities.  Many players who’ve shot as poorly as Smart can’t even see the floor at this point in their careers, so they don’t even get the chance to improve.

2) His coach believes in him, and will let him keep shooting.  Maybe there will come a time when that is no longer the case, but he’ll get game reps shooting the 3 for at least another season.

3) While his 3-point shooting hasn’t improved, his free throw shooting has gone from 65% to 78% to 81% in his NBA career.  Firstly, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting are positively correlated, for obvious reasons, so it’s not completely unreasonable to think that his jump-shooting will catch up.  Secondly, it shows that he likely put in a lot of work into his foul shooting and saw real improvement.  Based on his competitive nature, he’s probably putting in similar work to his 3-point shooting.

4) Some of his problem is shot selection.  He shot 42% from the corner last year.  Merely taking more of those and fewer pull-up 3s could raise his percentage to the low-to-mid 30s, even if he didn’t improve his stroke at all.  With an additional shot creator like Hayward on the roster, he might find that himself receiving the ball in better shooting position than in prior years.

Is Smart going to become league-average from 3?  Obviously I can’t say.  But it certainly wouldn’t shock me if he did. He doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to be an elite player, because he IS an elite defender today.

[TheTruthFot18]

Good. We need one defender on this team going forward.

[ChillyWilly]

If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.

The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.

Correct.

Only sort of correct.  It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed.  There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.

Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.

Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .

Very doubtful.  They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons.  They have Covington for perimeter defense.

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

What are the chances of that happening?  Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season.  Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1.  In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%.   That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason.  Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration? 

The chances are higher than they are for a lot of poor shooters.

1) He brings a lot of on-court value even when not shooting well, so he’ll continue to have opportunities.  Many players who’ve shot as poorly as Smart can’t even see the floor at this point in their careers, so they don’t even get the chance to improve.

2) His coach believes in him, and will let him keep shooting.  Maybe there will come a time when that is no longer the case, but he’ll get game reps shooting the 3 for at least another season.

3) While his 3-point shooting hasn’t improved, his free throw shooting has gone from 65% to 78% to 81% in his NBA career.  Firstly, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting are positively correlated, for obvious reasons, so it’s not completely unreasonable to think that his jump-shooting will catch up.  Secondly, it shows that he likely put in a lot of work into his foul shooting and saw real improvement.  Based on his competitive nature, he’s probably putting in similar work to his 3-point shooting.

4) Some of his problem is shot selection.  He shot 42% from the corner last year.  Merely taking more of those and fewer pull-up 3s could raise his percentage to the low-to-mid 30s, even if he didn’t improve his stroke at all.  With an additional shot creator like Hayward on the roster, he might find that himself receiving the ball in better shooting position than in prior years.

Is Smart going to become league-average from 3?  Obviously I can’t say.  But it certainly wouldn’t shock me if he did. He doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to be an elite player, because he IS an elite defender today.

#1 is bang on. Most guys don't get the minutes and opportunities when they are this poor of a shooter. Marcus is different in where he can impact a game in a positive way even with his sometimes poor selection and his brick factory is running at full capacity.

TP

[tazzmaniac]

If we get a similar percentage of the cap to the ross contract (aka 13-15 mil a year now) for Smart, I'm doing backflips. In a world where Evan Turner gets what he got, I'm absolutely fine with Smart for that number.

The thing is this isn't actually the same world as when Evan Turner got his contract. the cap is expanding much slower, there's not nearly as much money in the league.

Correct.

Only sort of correct.  It’s still expanding healthily — cap will increase around 10% over the next two seasons, which was the same projected increase as the summer when Turner signed.  There isn’t the big bump that created so many teams flush with cap space, but there will be available money next summer for some teams to spend, and the free agent pool might dry up more quickly than some think.

Yes the cap is still increasing at a healthy rate, but that rate is most definitively not the same as the rate the summer turner signed. That summer that cap went from 70 million the year before to 94 million that summer and increase of 34%! Last summer it went from 94 million to 99 million an increase of just over 5%. Next year the cap is projected at 108 million so a 1 year increase of 6%. The 2016 offseason was a clear outlier. Forget % increase though, look at the total money available and total bidding teams. I haven't done the math, but guys like Dany Leorux and Nate Duncan have and they project something like 300-400 million in cap space this coming summer, as opposes to 1 billion the year Evan Turner signed. Its also worth noting that the money is concentration around 4-6 teams as opposed to 2016 when closer to 20 had significant cap space. This means that Smarts suitors will be narrowly defined generally among very bad teams, not all of which will even need a Pg, and most of which will focus on UFA's first. All of this doesn't mean Smart won't get a suitor, all it takes is one, but the odds are in the Celtics favor.

Philly will make a long and large offer. He fits a need there for defense. .

Very doubtful.  They don't need a poor shooter on the court with Simmons.  They have Covington for perimeter defense.

What if he is not a poor shooter anymore?

What are the chances of that happening?  Smart shot 35.9 fg% and 28.3 3p% last season.  Over his 3 NBA seasons, he's shooting 35.8 and 29.1.  In both college seasons, he shot around 29 3p%.   That is some really poor shooting to overcome in a single offseason.  Even if he shoots somewhat better this season, are you really going trust that it is representative of him improving rather than an aberration? 

The chances are higher than they are for a lot of poor shooters.

1) He brings a lot of on-court value even when not shooting well, so he’ll continue to have opportunities.  Many players who’ve shot as poorly as Smart can’t even see the floor at this point in their careers, so they don’t even get the chance to improve.

2) His coach believes in him, and will let him keep shooting.  Maybe there will come a time when that is no longer the case, but he’ll get game reps shooting the 3 for at least another season.

3) While his 3-point shooting hasn’t improved, his free throw shooting has gone from 65% to 78% to 81% in his NBA career.  Firstly, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting are positively correlated, for obvious reasons, so it’s not completely unreasonable to think that his jump-shooting will catch up.  Secondly, it shows that he likely put in a lot of work into his foul shooting and saw real improvement.  Based on his competitive nature, he’s probably putting in similar work to his 3-point shooting.

4) Some of his problem is shot selection.  He shot 42% from the corner last year.  Merely taking more of those and fewer pull-up 3s could raise his percentage to the low-to-mid 30s, even if he didn’t improve his stroke at all.  With an additional shot creator like Hayward on the roster, he might find that himself receiving the ball in better shooting position than in prior years.

Is Smart going to become league-average from 3?  Obviously I can’t say.  But it certainly wouldn’t shock me if he did. He doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to be an elite player, because he IS an elite defender today.

Sure Smart could get better in his shooting over time.  However the chance that he improves enough this season where other teams (like the Sixers) would prioritize Smart next offseason is not likely. 

CBS wanted Sully to shoot 3s.  That's his system but some people just aren't made to be good shooters.  Most everyone shoots corner 3s better but there are only 2 corners.  If Smart is in the corner that would displace a better 3 point shooter. 

Here Pelton discuss Smart's shooting and indicates NBA free throw shooting is nearly as much correlated to 3pt shooting.   
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20789467/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-dwight-howard-marcus-smart

Here's a nice article on Smart's shooting.  He really shot lousy on wide open 3s the last couple seasons. 
http://www.celticshub.com/2017/08/21/smart-bet-marcuss-shot-will-improve-experience/