Author Topic: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team  (Read 5963 times)

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Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #45 on: October 08, 2017, 11:09:31 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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The problem with T-Ro is that when he plays with Marcus the offense usually turns very ugly.

He's like a classic garbageman, but in a guard's body - he collects stray rebounds, plays hardnose defense, has a high motor. Unfortunately, he is not a reliable shooter and although he can often get by his own man with a dribble, he doesn't pick his spots well. He flies into a second defender or the help rotation comes and stops him, leading to an awkward finish.

He is basically a pretty poor man's Marcus Smart - and doesn't pair well with the real deal. Possibly you can hide him on the second-unit offense if Morris and Tatum turn out to be good passers and he improves his decisionmaking on cuts to the hoop. But I currently see him as a spot substitution for energy when we need it.

I disagree with almost all of this. 

Rozier actually has a pretty strong midrange game, and he's show plenty of samples of solid outside shooting as well (he's shot quite nicely in summer league, preseason and playoff games). 

Unlike Smart, Rozier has he has pretty good form on his shot, and also has the quickness/handle to be able to get in to the paint more or less whenever he wants to - he just needs to get better at finishing and making the right decisions once he gets in there, and that's something that should improve with time.

You didn't address the main point – that you can't play Rozier and Smart together right now.

My apologies, here is my response to your point - yes you can. 

They were actually EXTREMELY effective together in the playoffs, and seem to have been very effective together almost every time I've watched them...so no idea where you are getting this from.

Rozier is actually a pretty good shooter, is a quality ball handler, has great quickness, and is capable of creating his own shot.  Those three things have been Smart's biggest weaknesses, so they compliment each other nicely.

You say Rozier is a good shooter. Not last year he wasn't. In fact, his traditional stats were very similar to Smart's, and Marcus was *better* on advanced stats. Four points better in TS%.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roziete01.html.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

I credit Rozier with a few nice plays the other night -- but he also gave us a few of his patented drives to nowhere. You never get the sense he's really seeing the game when he has the ball. The physical talent is obvious. The basketball sense and shooting accuracy are very much a work in progress.


Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #46 on: October 08, 2017, 11:13:55 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 FYI another Gang post on his Snapchat. I'm not giving him another contract personally.

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2017, 11:16:04 PM »

Offline Diggles

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What’s his handel on snap
Diggles

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #48 on: October 08, 2017, 11:19:54 PM »

Offline saltlover

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What’s his handel on snap

TRozzay3 I think.  Although I have no clue how to use Snapchat.

I assume he’s promoting his friend’s album, which is what he’s been doing every other time KGLL has said Rozier posted something gang-related.

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #49 on: October 09, 2017, 01:04:32 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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The problem with T-Ro is that when he plays with Marcus the offense usually turns very ugly.

He's like a classic garbageman, but in a guard's body - he collects stray rebounds, plays hardnose defense, has a high motor. Unfortunately, he is not a reliable shooter and although he can often get by his own man with a dribble, he doesn't pick his spots well. He flies into a second defender or the help rotation comes and stops him, leading to an awkward finish.

He is basically a pretty poor man's Marcus Smart - and doesn't pair well with the real deal. Possibly you can hide him on the second-unit offense if Morris and Tatum turn out to be good passers and he improves his decisionmaking on cuts to the hoop. But I currently see him as a spot substitution for energy when we need it.

I disagree with almost all of this. 

Rozier actually has a pretty strong midrange game, and he's show plenty of samples of solid outside shooting as well (he's shot quite nicely in summer league, preseason and playoff games). 

Unlike Smart, Rozier has he has pretty good form on his shot, and also has the quickness/handle to be able to get in to the paint more or less whenever he wants to - he just needs to get better at finishing and making the right decisions once he gets in there, and that's something that should improve with time.

You didn't address the main point – that you can't play Rozier and Smart together right now.

My apologies, here is my response to your point - yes you can. 

They were actually EXTREMELY effective together in the playoffs, and seem to have been very effective together almost every time I've watched them...so no idea where you are getting this from.

Rozier is actually a pretty good shooter, is a quality ball handler, has great quickness, and is capable of creating his own shot.  Those three things have been Smart's biggest weaknesses, so they compliment each other nicely.

You say Rozier is a good shooter. Not last year he wasn't. In fact, his traditional stats were very similar to Smart's, and Marcus was *better* on advanced stats. Four points better in TS%.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roziete01.html.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

I credit Rozier with a few nice plays the other night -- but he also gave us a few of his patented drives to nowhere. You never get the sense he's really seeing the game when he has the ball. The physical talent is obvious. The basketball sense and shooting accuracy are very much a work in progress.

Have you seen the shooting numbers that Billups, Lowry, Wall put up in their first 2-3 seasons?  All 3 have gone on to become very good shooters.
 
The key points I see with Rozier are not about what percentages he shoots, but what shots he's capable of hitting. Unlike Smart, you rarely see Rozier scoring on wide open layups, or wide open midrange jumpers. A lot of his layups are contested, off balance, trying to shoot over defenders.  A lot of his midrange jumpers are fadeaway jumpers coming off aggressive stop-on-a-dime dribble moves.  He uses a lot of direction changes in his dribble drives, and so it's rare to see him taking simple stand-still jumpers like Smart does 90% of the time.  The only real exception is his three point shots, which mostly are off catch and shoot situations - but even then many of them are highly contested (though Smart's threes often are too). 

Some examples:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG-4fQ4K6YQ

He hits some seriously tough shots, and he makes them look easy.  I mean honestly, how many of the shots in those highlights were easy, open jumpers? Maybe 5% - 10% of them, if that? The vast majority are very difficult shots - the type of shots you expect to see from guys like a prime Derrick Rose / Dwyane Wade.  The kind of shots/moves that Marcus Smart wouldn't even attempt, because he couldn't make them and he knows it.  That's a special talent. 

And that's what I see in Rozier.  Not his ability to score / shoot efficiently - you can't expect that from a combo guard who has had less court time then some rookies.  The main things I notice are:

1. His ability to use advanced dribble moves, changes of direction, and explosive quickness to get to where he wants to go almost at will

2. His ability to take (and make) difficult shots, such as highly contested off-balance jumpers

3. His ability to elevate his game in the clutch and in important games (e.g. playoffs)

It's pretty rare to see those two three talents, combined, in an NBA guard.  Past NBA guards who have those talents usually become offensive stars (e.g. Rose, Wall, Kyrie, etc) or at the very least elite 6th men.

Another big factor is that these are not skills he's picked up recently - he's been showing off those abilities since his college days, which is why I was so high on Rozier from the day Danny drafted him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NjbF7OVmOk

These are college highlights and we're seeing it all - floaters, pull up jumpers, fade-away jumpers, off balance layups, dunks...you name it.  His inconsistent three point shot was always his biggest knock, and even then his actual form is pretty solid, he just needs reps. 

Throw in Rozier's uncanny ability to rebound the ball in traffic along with his obvious defensive upside, and his motor / work ethic, and he has the potential to be a very impressive player a couple of years from now. 

There is a reason why Danny shocked the world by taking Rozier as high as he did, why he almost entirely refuses to include him in any trade discussions, and why he's constantly gushing about his talent.   The kid has a much higher upside then many realise.  Do you guys remember when Al Horford first came here, he specifically commented on how much Rozier had impressed him:

http://www.weei.com/blogs/celtics-teammates-impressed-terry-roziers-newfound-confidence

Does his game have weaknesses, is he still green, does he still have areas that he needs to improve?  Of course he does.  He needs to improve his decision making with the ball a little, and needs to learn to play a little more under control with his drives and moves.  But he's a 23 year old combo guard who barely has one year of NBA experience - those things will come.  As Danny Ainge once said, when it comes to young prospects what you need to look at is what they CAN do, not what they CAN'T do. This kid can do A LOT of impressive things on a basketball court.   
« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 01:37:01 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #50 on: October 09, 2017, 10:02:08 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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Fair points about Rozier’s promise. His ability to get past the first man is impressive. If he starts seeing the game well enough to realize where the rotation is coming from and where his teammates are he will be something. Let’s hope!

As for the comps, though, Terry is way behind those other guys you mention at his age.

* Chauncey lived on the 3 on his prime. At age 22 he shot 36% on five attempts per game.
* Wall is still a pretty mediocre 3-point shooter; his game is getting to the rim. At age 22 his TS% was 52% - eight points north of TR.
* Lowry is one point in your favor - at age 24 he suddenly figured out how to shoot the 3 and went from putrid to plus. However, he had already shown a skilled diverse offensive game based on midrange and drawing fouls - his TS% was *ten points* higher than Terry - almost 55% - at age 22.

I really hope TR figures out his game; maybe you’re right and all he needs are reps. But I wouldn’t compare him to those guys, who’d already shown special talent and learned how to turn it into results by age 22.

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #51 on: October 09, 2017, 12:07:18 PM »

Offline Erik

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The role of Rozier is primarily for memes in trade proposals, if you guys remember those:

AD for BRK 17 + BRK 18 + AB, Crowder, Smart, Rozier.

« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 12:19:48 PM by Erik »

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #52 on: October 09, 2017, 08:53:50 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Rozier ballin' again tonight. 

15 pts, 7 rebounds, 3 assists (5-7 FG, 4-7 FT, 1-1 3PT) so far in 17 minutes.

Just a taste of the potential this kid has when given the opportunity - he has been the best player on the floor tonight (just narrowly over Smart) - and that includes Philly's starters.

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #53 on: October 09, 2017, 10:04:48 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Fair points about Rozier’s promise. His ability to get past the first man is impressive. If he starts seeing the game well enough to realize where the rotation is coming from and where his teammates are he will be something. Let’s hope!

As for the comps, though, Terry is way behind those other guys you mention at his age.

* Chauncey lived on the 3 on his prime. At age 22 he shot 36% on five attempts per game.
* Wall is still a pretty mediocre 3-point shooter; his game is getting to the rim. At age 22 his TS% was 52% - eight points north of TR.
* Lowry is one point in your favor - at age 24 he suddenly figured out how to shoot the 3 and went from putrid to plus. However, he had already shown a skilled diverse offensive game based on midrange and drawing fouls - his TS% was *ten points* higher than Terry - almost 55% - at age 22.

I really hope TR figures out his game; maybe you’re right and all he needs are reps. But I wouldn’t compare him to those guys, who’d already shown special talent and learned how to turn it into results by age 22.

Billups stats over his first 3 seasons:
1997-98: 11.2 PTS, 2.4 REB, 3.9 ST, 37.4% FG, 32.9% 3PT, 85% FT
1998-99: 13.9 PTS, 2.1 REB, 3.8 AST, 38.6% FG, 36.2% 3PT, 91% 3PT
1999-00: 8.6 PTS, 2.6 REB, 3.0 AST, 33.7% FG, 17.1% 3PT, 84% FT

Obviously the third year is not fair to count because he only played 13 games, but even by the end of his second year he wasn't looking like he'd ever be an elite shooter - he looked like a medicore shooter who was starting to develop into a capable shooter.  And remember he played more minutes in his rookie year alone the Rozier has in his entire career so far, so he had the opportunity.

Fair point about wall - he looked pretty good against us in the playoffs which skewed my view of him, but his shooting numbers are still pretty poor.

Regarding Lowry, Rozier also has a pretty strong midrange game and has been getting to the line at will in this preseason so far.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 11:16:34 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #54 on: October 09, 2017, 10:36:43 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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Rozier has had a strong pre-season, especially tonite, and will surely be in the rotation, probably as the 4th guard.

The bigger question is who starts outside of the 3 stars. Brown? Smart? Morris? Baynes? Tatum?
Tatum has shown plenty so far. He starts for a lot of teams.

Baynes got hurt tonite, and we'll have to see what that's about. That could affect the rotation.

There is competition for the 2nd team between Yabu and Theis. I think Yabu might have the edge, because Theis has played less since the first pre-season game, and Danny may be partial to his draftees. Personally, I think Theis is the better player, but Yabu is a fighter--very aggressive on the boards.

Re: What's the role of Terry Rozier on this team
« Reply #55 on: October 09, 2017, 11:22:46 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Rozier has had a strong pre-season, especially tonite, and will surely be in the rotation, probably as the 4th guard.

The bigger question is who starts outside of the 3 stars. Brown? Smart? Morris? Baynes? Tatum?
Tatum has shown plenty so far. He starts for a lot of teams.

Baynes got hurt tonite, and we'll have to see what that's about. That could affect the rotation.

There is competition for the 2nd team between Yabu and Theis. I think Yabu might have the edge, because Theis has played less since the first pre-season game, and Danny may be partial to his draftees. Personally, I think Theis is the better player, but Yabu is a fighter--very aggressive on the boards.

I can see Brown and Morris starting. 

Avery was a much loved (and long tenured) Celtic, and Ainge agreed to give him up in a trade where the main return appeared to be Morris. Plus Ainge seems to have had his eye on the Morris brothers for some times.  Based on all that, I imagine he's pretty high on Marcus Morris - expecting him to start as the most proven guy and possibly the best fit next to Horford.

Smart has already said he's volunteered to come off the bench, so I assume Jaylen Brown will be starting at SG.