Author Topic: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...  (Read 1740 times)

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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2017, 04:15:03 PM »

Online hpantazo

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It definitely helps our Memphis 2019 pick.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2017, 04:43:45 PM »

Offline LilRip

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I think it won't reduce tanking but it will reduce throwing games. After all, front offices tank. But players do their best because there's a lot on the line (their next contract, pride, etc). Coaches don't have to try and purposefully lose. Or at least do less of that.
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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2017, 05:00:13 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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maybe just letting all the teams having equal chance and let the dice fall where they will.   Go back to every game means something and teams stop tanking . 

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2017, 05:09:14 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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How about when a team like the sixers tanks in such an obvious manner, you boot the owner and force a team sale. Otherwise, the league isn't serious about tanking
Then it just turns into this game of trying to tank while having plausible deniability that you really want to win games.
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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2017, 05:12:57 PM »

Offline Big333223

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lol, Daryl Morey just tweeted:

Quote
@samhinkie tanking is solved

 ;D

Can someone explain to me how this change is supposed to curb tanking? The worst teams still have the best odds at getting the best picks. Bad teams (that is, teams who aren't going to make the playoffs) still have the exact same incentives to tank as they did before. This hasn't actually changed anything.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2017, 05:17:06 PM »

Online hpantazo

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lol, Daryl Morey just tweeted:

Quote
@samhinkie tanking is solved

 ;D

Can someone explain to me how this change is supposed to curb tanking? The worst teams still have the best odds at getting the best picks. Bad teams (that is, teams who aren't going to make the playoffs) still have the exact same incentives to tank as they did before. This hasn't actually changed anything.


It makes a difference. In most drafts, there are only 1 or 2 players at most that are franchise cornerstone types who are worth tanking for. This adjustment makes it so that there really is no incentive to have the worst record in the league. All of the teams at the bottom will have equal chances of landing that 1-3 pick.

It would never make sense to reward teams for making the playoffs, as you suggest. It would end up utterly destroying some franchises that have a hard time winning , and it would make their competition even stronger. I think the ideal adjustment would be to make the odds equal for all lottery picks for non-playoff teams.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2017, 05:36:40 PM »

Online saltlover

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lol, Daryl Morey just tweeted:

Quote
@samhinkie tanking is solved

 ;D

Can someone explain to me how this change is supposed to curb tanking? The worst teams still have the best odds at getting the best picks. Bad teams (that is, teams who aren't going to make the playoffs) still have the exact same incentives to tank as they did before. This hasn't actually changed anything.

Derek Bodner had a terrific response:

Quote
Or: the inflection point on when it makes sense to intentionally lose has been shifted.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2017, 06:09:47 PM »

Offline CelticsFanFromNYC

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Yea imo,  This seems to open up the range of last minute tankers and decrease the chances of bad teams getting a top pick all at the same time. I liked the prior idea of not letting a team Into the top 3 the following year if they get #1. This only prevents the the Hinkie strategy from working. Owners who are semi tankers are more inclined to the last minute tanking. They closed the corners but opened the middle with this one.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2017, 06:22:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Seems like this change really funnels teams that have no hope of going anywhere in the playoffs (so, basically, 2/3 of the league), toward 25-30 wins.

It no longer pays nearly as much to end up around 15-20 wins, but it's also much better to end up in the high 20s rather than the mid 30s.
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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2017, 06:33:00 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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lol, Daryl Morey just tweeted:

Quote
@samhinkie tanking is solved

 ;D

Can someone explain to me how this change is supposed to curb tanking? The worst teams still have the best odds at getting the best picks. Bad teams (that is, teams who aren't going to make the playoffs) still have the exact same incentives to tank as they did before. This hasn't actually changed anything.
It significantly reduces the incentive to lose games as the reward has been marginalized quite a bit, especially for the worst teams.  It will not eliminate tanking but should help curb it substantially. 

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2017, 06:35:21 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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lol, Daryl Morey just tweeted:

Quote
@samhinkie tanking is solved

 ;D

Can someone explain to me how this change is supposed to curb tanking? The worst teams still have the best odds at getting the best picks. Bad teams (that is, teams who aren't going to make the playoffs) still have the exact same incentives to tank as they did before. This hasn't actually changed anything.
It significantly reduces the incentive to lose games as the reward has been marginalized quite a bit, especially for the worst teams.  It will not eliminate tanking but should help curb it substantially.
significantly reduced incentive? No it doesnt. Insigificantly reduces chance of a top pick by a few percent.  Nit significantly 

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2017, 06:53:39 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Here's a link to an ESPN article that provides all the percentage chances for every team in the lottery:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20851002/nba-board-governors-votes-pass-legislation-draft-lottery-reform-guidelines-resting-healthy-players

   

New 2019 Lottery Odds (Vs. Previous Odds)
                NO. 1 (%)   TOP-3 (%) TOP-5 (%)   EXPECTED PICK
Team 1   14.0 (25.0)   40 (64)    100 (100)   3.7 (2.6)
Team 2   14.0 (19.9)   40 (56)    80 (100)   3.9 (3.0)
Team 3   14.0 (15.6)   40 (47)    67 (96)           4.1 (3.4)
Team 4   12.5 (11.9)   37 (38)      55 (83)           4.4 (4.0)
Team 5   10.5 (8.8)   32 (29)    44 (55)           5.0 (4.7)
Team 6   9.0 (6.3)    28 (22)    37 (22)           5.5 (5.5)
Team 7   7.5 (4.3)    23 (15)    32 (15)           6.2 (6.5)
Team 8   6.0 (2.8)    19 (10)    26 (10)           7.0 (7.6)
Team 9   4.5 (1.7)    15 (6)   20 (6)           8.0 (8.7)
Team 10 3.0 (1.1)   10 (4)   14 (4)           9.2 (9.8)
Team 11 2.0 (0.8)   7 (3)   9 (3)          10.3 (10.8)
Team 12 1.5 (0.7)   5 (3)   7 (3)          11.4 (11.8)
Team 13 1.0 (0.6)   3 (2)   5 (2)          12.5 (12.8)
Team 14 0.5 (0.5)   2 (2)   2 (2)          13.7 (13.8)

I like this for the Kings pick. I can see them finishing between the 6th and 9th worst team, so their odds of hitting #1 are higher but still quite low, however their odds off landing top 3 and top 5 increase by 100% or more on average in the 6-9 range.

And if they finish in the bottom 3, they are less likely to land top 3 and top 5 but still have really good odds, and their chances to hit #1 are heavily reduced.

I think I kind of like it either way.
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #27 on: September 28, 2017, 07:10:16 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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lol, Daryl Morey just tweeted:

Quote
@samhinkie tanking is solved

 ;D

Can someone explain to me how this change is supposed to curb tanking? The worst teams still have the best odds at getting the best picks. Bad teams (that is, teams who aren't going to make the playoffs) still have the exact same incentives to tank as they did before. This hasn't actually changed anything.
It significantly reduces the incentive to lose games as the reward has been marginalized quite a bit, especially for the worst teams.  It will not eliminate tanking but should help curb it substantially.
significantly reduced incentive? No it doesnt. Insigificantly reduces chance of a top pick by a few percent.  Nit significantly 
It takes away 44% of the lottery balls that the worst team was receiving and it takes away some 30% of the lottery balls the 2nd worst team was receiving and redistributes them to the other lottery teams.  It also allows the worst teams to fall 1 more spot in the draft if their lottery balls do not come up.  The NBA is not doing this just because, it clearly takes away some of the incentive to tank from the worst offenders.

What I find interesting is that OKC was the only team to vote against these changes.  Are they really that afraid Westbrook and George are leaving?  This would directly impact their 1st tanking year if they do leave following this year...

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #28 on: September 28, 2017, 07:32:00 PM »

Offline bopna

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Why did they not put astop on picking 1st on consecutive years..somthing the Cavs have astonishingly accomplished in the past

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #29 on: September 28, 2017, 07:43:05 PM »

Offline Somebody

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This isn't good tbh, you'll see as near playoff teams suddenly draft a cornerstone due to the increased lottery odds, all this does is to ensure the worst stay the worst.