Author Topic: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...  (Read 1748 times)

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NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« on: September 28, 2017, 03:32:16 PM »

Offline jambr380

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So, it is official and it begins in 2019. How will this affect the Cs and the Lakers/Sac pick?

Also, how do you feel about the changes?

Quote
The three highest lottery seeds will now each have a 14% chance of getting the top pick compared to 25% for the team with the worst record, 19.9% for the team with the second-worst record and 15.6% for the team with the third-worst record in the lottery system used since 2005.

The number of picks determined by the lottery will also increase to four from three, meaning the team with the worst record could fall to the fifth pick compared to the fourth pick in the previous lottery system. The team with the second-worst record will pick no lower than sixth, the third-seed no worse than seventh and the fourth seed no worse than eighth.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2017/09/28/nba-passes-draft-lottery-reform-board-governors-meeting/713708001/

Also, please feel free to merge with the other thread proposing the reform. I just didn't see it on a quick search.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2017, 03:39:48 PM by jambr380 »

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2017, 03:37:03 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Good for us.


"The three highest lottery seeds will now each have a 14% chance of getting the top pick compared to 25% for the team with the worst record, 19.9% for the team with the second-worst record and 15.6% for the team with the third-worst record in the lottery system used since 2005"

If the Lakers are 2nd or 3rd worst team, its now less likely the pick will become #1. Very good considering the protection on the pick

 Also Brooklyn pick is now less likely to be the 1st overall pick No matter what.

"The number of picks determined by the lottery will also increase to four from three, meaning the team with the worst record could fall to the fifth pick compared to the fourth pick in the previous lottery system. The team with the second-worst record will pick no lower than sixth, the third-seed no worse than seventh and the fourth seed no worse than eighth."


This might be our only concern. 2nd worst team can now fall to 6 and the 4th worst can fall to 8th. Obviously puts us in a bad spot but we will need luck with or without reform anyways for this pick to convey this draft

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2017, 03:37:45 PM »

Offline footey

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Slightly increases Sac pick being 1, which is bad, but increases chances of it being higher overall, which is good. Has no bearing on LA pick obviously.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2017, 03:38:38 PM »

Online Donoghus

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Good for us.


"The three highest lottery seeds will now each have a 14% chance of getting the top pick compared to 25% for the team with the worst record, 19.9% for the team with the second-worst record and 15.6% for the team with the third-worst record in the lottery system used since 2005"

If the Lakers are 2nd or 3rd worst team, its now less likely the pick will become #1. Very good considering the protection on the pick

 Also Brooklyn pick is now less likely to be the 1st overall pick No matter what.

It doesn't go into effect until the 2019 draft so this change has no bearing on the LAL pick.   That drawing will still be under the old rules.


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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2017, 03:42:15 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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That doesn't really stop tanking.
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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2017, 03:43:27 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Slightly increases Sac pick being 1, which is bad, but increases chances of it being higher overall, which is good.

I'm not following. Where are you projecting Sacramento to be?

If they're a bottom-3 team in 2019, doesn't this hurt our chances of getting #2 or #3?


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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2017, 03:55:23 PM »

Online Moranis

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Absolutely terrible idea that will now cause bad teams to be bad for longer.  Will have the opposite effect of what the league wants.  There was absolutely nothing wrong with the prior system at all.
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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2017, 03:55:53 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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That doesn't really stop tanking.

Nothing stops the incentive to tank outside of just a purely random draw where all teams, playoffs or not, get the same odds.

Flattening the odds reduces the incentive for lottery teams to keep sinking in the standings, though it might slightly increase the incentive to fall out of the playoffs and into the lottery.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2017, 04:03:13 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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That doesn't really stop tanking.

Nothing stops the incentive to tank outside of just a purely random draw where all teams, playoffs or not, get the same odds.

Flattening the odds reduces the incentive for lottery teams to keep sinking in the standings, though it might slightly increase the incentive to fall out of the playoffs and into the lottery.
Adam silver thinks he can solve everything. Teams will still fight to have a top 3 worst record. It changes nothing.

How about when a team like the sixers tanks in such an obvious manner, you boot the owner and force a team sale. Otherwise, the league isn't serious about tanking

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2017, 04:04:59 PM »

Online bdm860

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Did they implement any rules about having a top-X pick in consecutive years or over a certain span of years?

The implications of that was more intriguing to me then flattening the odds.

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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2017, 04:05:55 PM »

Online jpotter33

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Well, at the very least I think this makes trading the Brooklyn pick in the Kyrie trade more palatable.

With this being the last year to really take advantage of tanking and with there being at least half a dozen teams that are outright tanking/bad enough to be a bottom-three team, I think you'll see a major tank race in the latter half of this season. That probably should be enough to keep Brooklyn/Cleveland out of the top-three barring some lottery night luck.

Granted, that might also hurt our chances of getting the LA pick this year, too.
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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2017, 04:08:04 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Don't love the idea of the percentages changing, but am okay with increasing the # of teams who can win the lottery from 3 to 4. Teams that aren't great, but are trying will have a better chance at landing a franchise player.

I am also happy that there is still a benefit for bad teams; the last thing in the world I ever wanted to see was the wheel.

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2017, 04:10:26 PM »

Online Donoghus

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Well, at the very least I think this makes trading the Brooklyn pick in the Kyrie trade more palatable.

With this being the last year to really take advantage of tanking and with there being at least half a dozen teams that are outright tanking/bad enough to be a bottom-three team, I think you'll see a major tank race in the latter half of this season. That probably should be enough to keep Brooklyn/Cleveland out of the top-three barring some lottery night luck.

Granted, that might also hurt our chances of getting the LA pick this year, too.

Here's hoping that play in the West helps the LAL pick's chances & playing in the East hurts BKN's.

I really don't want this thing to go to '19.


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Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2017, 04:11:16 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Here's a link to an ESPN article that provides all the percentage chances for every team in the lottery:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20851002/nba-board-governors-votes-pass-legislation-draft-lottery-reform-guidelines-resting-healthy-players

   

New 2019 Lottery Odds (Vs. Previous Odds)
                NO. 1 (%)   TOP-3 (%) TOP-5 (%)   EXPECTED PICK
Team 1   14.0 (25.0)   40 (64)    100 (100)   3.7 (2.6)
Team 2   14.0 (19.9)   40 (56)    80 (100)   3.9 (3.0)
Team 3   14.0 (15.6)   40 (47)    67 (96)           4.1 (3.4)
Team 4   12.5 (11.9)   37 (38)      55 (83)           4.4 (4.0)
Team 5   10.5 (8.8)   32 (29)    44 (55)           5.0 (4.7)
Team 6   9.0 (6.3)    28 (22)    37 (22)           5.5 (5.5)
Team 7   7.5 (4.3)    23 (15)    32 (15)           6.2 (6.5)
Team 8   6.0 (2.8)    19 (10)    26 (10)           7.0 (7.6)
Team 9   4.5 (1.7)    15 (6)   20 (6)           8.0 (8.7)
Team 10 3.0 (1.1)   10 (4)   14 (4)           9.2 (9.8)
Team 11 2.0 (0.8)   7 (3)   9 (3)          10.3 (10.8)
Team 12 1.5 (0.7)   5 (3)   7 (3)          11.4 (11.8)
Team 13 1.0 (0.6)   3 (2)   5 (2)          12.5 (12.8)
Team 14 0.5 (0.5)   2 (2)   2 (2)          13.7 (13.8)
« Last Edit: September 28, 2017, 04:21:27 PM by nickagneta »

Re: NBA Passes Draft Lottery Reform...
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2017, 04:15:02 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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That doesn't really stop tanking.

Nothing stops the incentive to tank outside of just a purely random draw where all teams, playoffs or not, get the same odds.

Flattening the odds reduces the incentive for lottery teams to keep sinking in the standings, though it might slightly increase the incentive to fall out of the playoffs and into the lottery.
Adam silver thinks he can solve everything. Teams will still fight to have a top 3 worst record. It changes nothing.

How about when a team like the sixers tanks in such an obvious manner, you boot the owner and force a team sale. Otherwise, the league isn't serious about tanking

The problem with this is that Adam Silver has to implement his decisions in reality, not reactionary power fantasy land.