So...if Melo and PG stay in OKC with Westbrook, does Lebron still want to go to the Western Conference next season?
Naw
I predict Lebron will retire after next season
He showed me last season he is content with what he has done/accomplished
After next season the Cavs are going to trade Love etc for the purpose to rebuild
Lebron either becomes the new president of basketball operations or something left field and joins the Clippers as the new president.
His playing days in the league will soon be over.
Can't disagree with this more. Lebron is going to be around until late in his 30's. He still has about $150+ million to earn and he is still in amazing physical condition.
Don't know where he will play as Cleveland is looking less and less likely to keep him, but Lebron will be around a while.
Where is Lebron going to go where he can be competitive? Lakers would have no chance in the West unless Lebron and 2 other top stars take a lot less than Max to go there. In the East, he'd be more competitive staying on the Cavs than any other team he could feasibly go to.
True but I also don't think Cleveland ownership will want him back at another outrageous salary that keeps them in lottery hell. There's just so much money they can lose yearly before they come to the decision that Lebron just isn't worth it fiscally. I just think Cleveland might be at that point right now, otherwise why trade for the Brooklyn pick if not to rebuild without Lebron?
"Keeps them in lottery hell"? What the heck does that mean? As long as they have Lebron they'll be a playoff team in the weak East. They traded Irving because he demanded a traded and our offer was by far the best. That Nets pick can be used to rebuild if Lebron leaves but it could also be used in a trade to acquire more talent to put around Lebron if he stays.
They paid $45 million in luxury tax last year for a team that got wiped out in the Finals. They will have to pay the repeater tax this year on $140 million team salary and still won't be any closer to a title. If they resign Lebron and IT they will be approaching $170 million team salary again on a repeater tax.
They will be losing huge gobs of money to lose in the Finals if they are lucky enough to get there. There comes a time when they will have to say, Lebron's $35+ million just isn't worth it.
It is not "luxury tax hell" if you make the finals. I don't know how much the Cavs make but GSW earns 10M for each playoff home game. That covers a lot of luxury tax. The Cavs aren't losing gobs of money. They only showed up as losing money after revenue sharing and they didn't show up as losing money using the operating income methodology. Lebron brings them much more money than his salary costs them. If he leaves, they will truly be losing money and need revenue sharing to offset their losses.
I'm pretty sure that $10m number for playoff home games comes from here. That's for Finals games only, not every playoff game, Finals tickets are much more expensive than the earlier 3 rounds. Plus GS has a much higher ticket price than Cleveland,
it costs about 25% more just to get in the door in GS than Cleveland at least according to this article.
My SWAG for Cleveland might be something like $9m per Finals game, $7m per ECF game, $5m per 2nd round game, $3m per 1st round game. That's only $48m extra in revenue, that barely covers their $45m luxury tax bill (though actually I think it was closer to $25m last year, $45m would've been this year before the Kyrie/IT trade). Still losing money is losing money, doesn't matter if it was due to revenue sharing/luxury tax or not, as that's a cost teams have to bear.
I noticed you mentioned Cleveland didn't lose money if you look at
operating income, can you explain why you'd prefer to look at operating income before revenue sharing, rather than net income after revenue sharing? Which number do you think the owners are looking at? That negative net income number has to come out of their pockets, whether or not they had positive operating income.
All this to say, I don't think going to the Finals is the golden goose you think it is. Cavs went to the Finals and lost money. I can see a point approaching (if we're not already there) where the Cavs lose more money with LeBron than if they're a 20 win team without him.